That AP fact check is disingenuous and it doesn't address my concerns. Which I guess I should state clearly. I think there are more breakthrough infections than expected, orders of magnitude more. I think that's not an issue for individuals under 50. If these rates of infection continue to rise due to variants or waning vaccine efficacy regardless of increasing vaccination rates, cases in the elderly or vulnerable will rise. If vaccination lowers the risk of hospitalization or death for the elderly by 500%, there's still the potential for 100k plus deaths. Shouldn't that be addressed in good faith?
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/co...-israel-675924
Any PhD's in biostatistics around here to put these numbers into context:
In the age group 50-50, unvaccinated patients still surpass vaccinated once, eleven compared to eight (plus one partially inoculated).
Among those who are in serious condition and over the age of 60, the balance shifts: there are more fully vaccinated patients who are in serious conditions than unvaccinated ones. However, some 91% of the relevant population – almost 1.6 million people – is fully immunized, with only 109,000 people not protected.
Looking at the data of how many patients Israel has per 100,000 people, it is clear that those who are not inoculated are still getting seriously ill much more than jabbed people.
In the 60-69 cohort, 27 vaccinated people were in serious condition as of Thursday, in addition to 18 non-vaccinated individuals and one person partially vaccinated. Looking at the numbers per 100,000 people, there are 26.8 patients who were not vaccinated, 9.5 who were partially vaccinated and only 4.1 who were vaccinated.
Among those 70-79, there were 57 fully vaccinated serious patients, three partially vaccinated, and 16 not vaccinated. This translates into 73.4 unvaccinated serious patients per 100,000 people, 52.2 partially vaccinated and 12.3 vaccinated.
In the 80-89 age group, there were 52 serious patients who were vaccinated, one partially vaccinated, and 12 not vaccinated. Considering data per 100,000 people, there are 105 unvaccinated serious patients, 25.7 partially vaccinated serious patients, and 25 vaccinated serious patients.
Among individuals over the age of 90, there were 18 people fully vaccinated, two partially vaccinated and two non-vaccinated. However, taking into consideration the numbers per 100,000 people, this means 60.3 unvaccinated serious patients per 100,000, 115.1 partially vaccinated serious patients and 38.8 vaccinated serious patients.
Octave, aren't a couple of those papers pre Delta?
So, let's talk scenarios. If it's true that seasonality, as suggested by Osterholm, plays an important role in transmission and spikes or surges are to be expected, greater in winter, at what point do we "decouple" vaccination rates from cases and outcomes. In other words, what's an acceptable baseline for all 3. If we can accept that the vaccines won't prevent all infections, hospitalizations or deaths, we can also conclude that there will be more breakthrough cases and deaths in the winter. Octave, are you suggesting that the only way to escape that trend is for 100% vaccination? A few weeks ago, there were a few calculations posted about Delta's R0 and how that raised the necessary herd immunity vaccination rate to above 100%