Virus thread, the political one.

[bigbill]

I'm not sure the issue is with manufacturing centers or other facilities closed to the general public that take reasonable precautions like modifying workspaces and procedures to avoid close contact between employees, upping clean schedules, doing some screening of employees. and since there's oversight on who is in the plant on a given day the ability to trace and isolate infections among employees is there.

where I'm seeing this spread is dumbasses, particularly younger people, socializing without masks, especially in indoor spaces like bars and restaurants.

Dumbass younger people is why Bullhead City, AZ is off the charts in new cases, specifically in the 20-40 year old range. It is across the river from Laughlin, NV which is a mini-Las Vegas.

[Matthew Strongin]

I'm not generally one to rag on the youth of today as I have actually been very impressed with the majority of young adults and college students I've met over the years, but this...this is ridiculous.

Alabama coronavirus parties offer payouts for those who get infected, official says - CNN

[jimcav]

Months ago I saw an Italian study with data on social mobility showing the major spread in much of Italy was from young people (the adult under 20-29 crowd), and we saw the tragic cost paid by the elders with whom they were then in close enough contact. So maddening to see the same stupidity playing out here. At least they (Italy) were in the early days of the pandemic and didn't have the obvious example of what not to do. We did/still do, yet we've in larger part ignored it, and through a ridiculous combination of magical/wishful thinking and politicization of AN ILLNESS, we've structured a scenario to barrel down the same road Italy went, only farther, and faster. I've never before been thankful that my folks are now gone, but I'm stressed enough worried about those still in my life who are at risk, and thankful I don't have to worry about them too.
So much for the short-lived wartime mindset and nationwide unity/sacrifice.

[sk_tle]

I'm not generally one to rag on the youth of today as I have actually been very impressed with the majority of young adults and college students I've met over the years, but this...this is ridiculous.

Alabama coronavirus parties offer payouts for those who get infected, official says - CNN

In spain this would have warranted jail time for the organizers and participants and a fine up to 30000€

[TMB]

My wife and I were in AZ when this all broke out. I think it is fair to say that, initially, we didn't cotton on to how serious this was going to be but it became real fairly quickly.

We discussed packing up and leaving but were literally in the middle of a kitchen reno so were stuck. Having tradespeople wandering in and out of the house while all this was percolating was uncomfortable, but ....

On March 13 the Government of Canada issued a Travel Advisory in relation to the US and told people to get home. I did not understand, at the time, that that declaration had a very significant impact on many "snowbirds" - ie: their out of country medical insurance now had a 10 day clock on it. So we started to see the rush to get home. I am a retired partner from a Big 4 firm and my medical/travel/out of country insurance is actually very good and did not have the 10 day clock. However it does require that on a rotating clock I let them know if we are still out of country to extend it and I could not imagine the reaction I would get if I phoned and asked for an extension to stay in Arizona through this. So as soon as the kitchen was finished we packed up and headed home.

The drive was very interesting, almost surreal and certainly pointed up the differences in attitude in places along the way. Mostly the stuff that just made you shake your head.

When we got to the Canada/US border (which had closed at midnight the prior night), we were met with a roadblock set up by US Border Patrol and had to clear that before we could go to Canada Customs.

We got home on March 22. I drove to Vancouver on March 24 and brought my youngest daughter home (along with all of her anticipated wants) - her office had closed and people were sent home, she can work from here and be spoiled, and be safe. They do not anticipate that her office will be open for access before March 2021.

I have spoken with people at my old firm, at some of the other firms and in various cities across Canada - all are working from home. Offices will not be open to staff before March 2021. Most of them are telling me their building access cards have been dis-abled, so this is a long term thing.

Since getting home, we have been staying very close to home. The garden is planted and well weeded, groceries are being bought on-line for curbside pick-up and cash outflows are generally probably 50% of what they have been in the past.

I sit here now and watch the news and just can't believe what I am seeing and hearing. The attitude of people that they have rights, without responsibility is sad to see.

At this point the border remains closed and will probably be so for quite some time, we have sort of accepted that it may be a long time before we see our little place in AZ again, and see friends down there again.

Everybody stay safe, stay healthy.

As Dr. Bonny Henry (BC's Public Health Director says) - Be kind, be calm, be safe.

The Top Doctor Who Aced the Coronavirus Test - The New York Times

BigBill - It was good to see you in December, I wish we had had the chance to see you again before we left - stay safe.

[claritycycler]

Really, really...?? TV this morning orange man is having a 4th fireworks show at Mt Rushmore in SD, masks optional(we know how that goes) and no social distancing in a 7,500 seat amphitheater. He also referred to himself as the fifth sculpture on the mt., totally 1000% wacky delusions of grandeur.

[vertical_doug]

There was a house party in Clarkstown NY (rockland county) which caused a cluster. People at the party were refusing to cooperate with the County Officials on contact tracing. The county had to issue subpoenas with $2000/day fine for not cooperating. The county had to do the same thing last year with the measles outbreak. It's one thing to have a party, be a bonehead and get infected. It's even worse to be infected and refuse to cooperate in tracing those you were in contact with. . .

New York county issues subpoenas to people refusing to talk to contact tracers | TheHill

[Sbti]

Really, really...?? TV this morning orange man is having a 4th fireworks show at Mt Rushmore in SD, masks optional(we know how that goes) and no social distancing in a 7,500 seat amphitheater. He also referred to himself as the fifth sculpture on the mt., totally 1000% wacky delusions of grandeur.

Some forest fire "experts" are worried that the fireworks might cause some fires in the Mt. Rushmore area due to the drought. Don't they know that this administration would not take such a risk? They have had a crack team of forest rakers on the job for days now.

And this visit is the perfect opportunity for Billy(Tom Hagen) Barr to slip away to the jail where Ghislaine Maxwell is being held to check on security measures. You know, suicide watch, cameras operable, coffee for the sleepy guards.

[beeatnik]

20/20 Hindsight

What do countries that have "beaten" the coronavirus have in common? Widespread testing, lockdowns, shelter in place, universal mask usage? Nope. Social distancing and sealed borders. No way the US could have done both, IMO.

New Zealand
Australia, New Zealand move to seal borders to curb virus | The Times of Israel

Vietnam
Coronavirus made Vietnam shut its borders. Now it'''s allowing flights from Japan for the first time | CNN Travel

Denmark
https://www.thelocal.dk/20200515/wat...ark-is-surreal
From the start, Denmark has acted quickly and decisively. On March 11, when there were only around 500 recorded cases in Denmark and no deaths, the government closed schools and other public institutions and banned large gatherings. Two days later, Denmark sealed its borders

Copenhagen in mid-May.
denmark.jpg

denmark2.jpg

denmark3.jpg

[Bob Ross]

What do countries that have "beaten" the coronavirus have in common? Widespread testing, lockdowns, shelter in place, universal mask usage? Nope. Social distancing and sealed borders. No way the US could have done both, IMO.

Okay, I'll bite: Why not?

Notwithstanding the conclusions drawn by the Vox article that Guido posted yesterday -- that the reason the US has failed where other countries have succeeded has more to do with our inability to rally around the opinions of public health officials, and instead we have to politicize every proposed solution -- why couldn't the US practice social distancing and seal its borders?

I know why *I* think the US can't do social distancing: Because Americans have been brought up to believe we're "exceptional" and as such we don't like being told what to do if it in any way doesn't agree with ideas or opinions we already embrace individually. The same pull-yerself-up-by-yer-bootstraps mentality that led to Every Little Boy Can Be President also led to a misguided belief that our own opinions are just as valid as those of actual subject matter experts.

But why couldn't we seal our borders? Surely not because we don't have a wall?

[theflashunc]

It's a incomplete analysis. The closures were typically short-term in Europe, and countries like Germany did not prohibit all travel from within the Eurozone.

Contact tracing, physical distancing and lockdowns played a huge part. The US is hosed because we're so far behind the ability to contact trace now, we'll never isolate pockets of the virus before they spread through communities.

Also, there's that whole lack of a social safety net thing that led to more widespread political will to re-open sooner rather than later.

Serve Mammon and all that.

[Mark Kelly]

Australia didn't really close its borders, we simply added a quarantine requirement. My son's partner flew in from California about two months ago, she had to stay isolated in a hotel in Brisbane (her port of entry) for 14 days before coming down here. BTW the government picks up the tab for the quarantine hotel to reduce the chance that people will avoid doing it.

[ABiCi]

It's a incomplete analysis. The closures were typically short-term in Europe, and countries like Germany did not prohibit all travel from within the Eurozone.

Contact tracing, physical distancing and lockdowns played a huge part. The US is hosed because we're so far behind the ability to contact trace now, we'll never isolate pockets of the virus before they spread through communities.

Also, there's that whole lack of a social safety net thing that led to more widespread political will to re-open sooner rather than later.

Serve Mammon and all that.

As someone living in Germany, no, we didn't totally lock down our borders to everyone, but from mid March it was severely limited to necessary travelers - the only internal EU travel allowed was basically truck drivers hauling freight, cross border commuters for work and medical professionals only. This was in place until July. The US could certainly have done that.

It could also have followed the kind of controls that Mark mentioned my home country Australia put in place in order to properly quarantine and test international arrivals. When Trump brags about his "China ban" he skims over the fact that something like 40,000 people came back to the US from China after that order was made. What measures were put in place to ensure those people, not to mention the tens of thousands arriving from Europe, weren't carrying the disease? Certainly nothing as coordinated or stringent as the Australian policy.

[bironi]

Four More Months!

[vertical_doug]

I think the pivot happened in May when Trump tweeted about approving of the Michigan Protestors at the State Capital protesting the lockdown. This jumped the gun on the re-opening process.

Nature Magazine has some decent coverage on all of this in a weekly podcasts. On Friday's episode, they discussed the gap in simulations in pandemic response. (a lot of this rolls back to Gov/Quasi Gov agencies rethinking everything post the Ebola outbreak in sub-Sahara Africa).

In all of these simulations, the US usually scored top because of our huge diagnostic capability and resources. One of the things the simulations never took into account was leadership that may actually work to impede response. This is largely what has happened in the US.

The default now seems the US is on the Swedish model. I view this weekend as a National Chickenpox party day for coronavirus. The only news that has been good is mortality is coming down. Therapeutics are improving. But some of this may just be a lag in mortality versus infections.

[Mark Kelly]

The only news that has been good is mortality is coming down. Therapeutics are improving. But some of this may just be a lag in mortality versus infections

Dumbass younger people is why Bullhead City, AZ is off the charts in new cases, specifically in the 20-40 year old range.

I think these two things are related: the recent uptick in infections has been driven by younger people who are more likely to survive. Unfortunately I think your comment regarding the lag might be coming to pass in Florida at least.

Also the US death rate in the first wave ( around 10%) doesn't reflect reality, it is most likely to be an artefact of underdiagnosis of active cases by 80 - 90% due to lack of testing. In a perverted way the narcissist-in-chief is right, some of the data is due to improved testing though it would be more accurate to call out the inadequate testing earlier..

[vertical_doug]

I think these two things are related: the recent uptick in infections has been driven by younger people who are more likely to survive. Unfortunately I think your comment regarding the lag might be coming to pass in Florida at least.

Also the US death rate in the first wave ( around 10%) doesn't reflect reality, it is most likely to be an artefact of underdiagnosis of active cases by 80 - 90% due to lack of testing. In a perverted way the narcissist-in-chief is right, some of the data is due to improved testing though it would be more accurate to call out the inadequate testing earlier..

I also think seniors are afraid and have locked themselves down for the most part. Unfortunately, first time around before people really knew what was happening, a lot of older vulnerable people were infected. (I think this was at issue in Italy, Uk, US). I know both of my parents are lockdown in Phoenix, slightly afraid and have no plans to do anything...... I haven't asked my 80+ Dad how he plans to vote yet....

[j44ke]

....In a perverted way the narcissist-in-chief is right, some of the data is due to improved testing though it would be more accurate to call out the inadequate testing earlier..

This is a continuing aspect of Trump in very many things. If he involved himself in this form of technically right after disastrously wrong without slathering everything with seemingly infinite layers of self-aggrandizing prevarication, he would be unbeatable. But even with all the holes he puts in his own boat, I have to think he is still cruising to a toss up election, no matter how much optimism can be found in the polls for the opposition.

[beeatnik]

A Tale of Two Cities aka Trump's not failing San Francisco's white Creative Class (I know, I know....)

Inequality Fueled COVID-19 Transmission in San Francisco’s Mission District, Says New Study | UC San Francisco

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...233v1.full.pdf

San Francisco testing blitz shows Covid-19 hit mostly low-wage workers

While Havlir expected to see the Latinx community hit hard by the virus, the actual numbers came as a shock. About 2% of people tested positive for the coronavirus. Nearly all of them — 95% — were Latinx. The other 5% were Asian or Pacific Islander. Not a single white person tested positive, though 34% of the tract’s residents are white, according to the U.S. Census; 58% are Hispanic.

Not a single positive in 1000 white residents, in America's 2nd densest city. Covid-19 is so weird.

[j44ke]

Geez, if Major League Baseball can't get testing right, then who can? Am I right? I mean think about all the routine drug testing they do on a regular basis and how great...uhm...oh never mind.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...s-summer-camp/