Covid19

[Will Neide]

I'm a big fan of ZdoggMD and Dr Offit. This is definitely worth the 45 minutes. For those that don't know him, Dr. Offit is a co-inventor of the Rotavirus vaccine, and he's also a pediatrician specializing in infectious disease, vaccines, and immunology at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP).

[Too Tall]

Thanks Will. I had no idea there was a rotovirus vaccine. Someday I'll tell you about New Year's Eve me and Mrs. got it at the same time. Not a big deal except we were getting ready to have our annual NYE party with 50 invited guests. Such joy...."no no honey you go first, I'll hold your hair". LOL

[Chik]

To me, this seems a bit mad:

AstraZeneca to be exempt from coronavirus vaccine liability claims in most countries

[vertical_doug]

Thanks Will. I had no idea there was a rotovirus vaccine. Someday I'll tell you about New Year's Eve me and Mrs. got it at the same time. Not a big deal except we were getting ready to have our annual NYE party with 50 invited guests. Such joy...."no no honey you go first, I'll hold your hair". LOL

We should combine the Rotovirus/Coronavirus vaccines into a Cruise Ship special for seniors and make sure its covered by Medicare.

[Sbti]

Thanks Will. I had no idea there was a rotovirus vaccine. Someday I'll tell you about New Year's Eve me and Mrs. got it at the same time. Not a big deal except we were getting ready to have our annual NYE party with 50 invited guests. Such joy...."no no honey you go first, I'll hold your hair". LOL

I didn't watch the video, but I think the rotovirus vaccine is for infants and very young children. I'm thinking you mean norovirus (of cruise ship fame) since you are implying talking to Ralph on the porcelain telephone.

[Too Tall]

I didn't watch the video, but I think the rotovirus vaccine is for infants and very young children. I'm thinking you mean norovirus (of cruise ship fame) since you are implying talking to Ralph on the porcelain telephone.

You are right. Evidently, I'm just seconds from senility.

[Too Tall]

Bored? I've got two words for you: Bayesian perspective

How to Think Like an Epidemiologist - The New York Times

Above think piece describes a simple proof which might give you some perspective wrt health risk and how to manage these troubled times. The math is dog simple yet it's impact could allow you to make better informed decisions and come to terms with things such as personal risk. Give it a shot.

Bayesian Compass much?

[Chik]

Bored? I've got two words for you: Bayesian perspective

How to Think Like an Epidemiologist - The New York Times

Above think piece describes a simple proof which might give you some perspective wrt health risk and how to manage these troubled times. The math is dog simple yet it's impact could allow you to make better informed decisions and come to terms with things such as personal risk. Give it a shot.

Bayesian Compass much?

I haven't heard Bayes's name since... university. I don't think I've met many people who fancy themselves numerate AND understand this concept. Regardless, the closing paragraph is all anyone really needs to understand, but then again, such people seem to be in short supply these days. Or, has it always been the case?

[Too Tall]

I haven't heard Bayes's name since... university. I don't think I've met many people who fancy themselves numerate AND understand this concept. Regardless, the closing paragraph is all anyone really needs to understand, but then again, such people seem to be in short supply these days. Or, has it always been the case?

Nah, all yah gotta do is squint a little and it makes sense ;)

[Chik]

Whatever one might think of the Swedish approach, this story illustrates what one Bayseian approach looks like, but the first paragraph betrays the fact that Tegnell believes most people do not see the world like Bayes.

Sweden'''s Covid expert warns UK: opening and closing schools would be disastrous

[Too Tall]

Whatever one might think of the Swedish approach, this story illustrates what one Bayseian approach looks like, but the first paragraph betrays the fact that Tegnell believes most people do not see the world like Bayes.

Sweden'''s Covid expert warns UK: opening and closing schools would be disastrous

That is a very different society. FWIIW There is much recent speculation based on emerging trends that so called “natural” immunity resides in large swaths of the worlds population.

Observational, tho it may be, evidence points at prior immunizations as well as prior exposure to other virus commonly associated with flu/cold etc as the “why” so many people are asymptomatic. Should this be the case, read the tea leaves. Our moral compass will or will not follow. (Deep sigh)

[Chik]

Could someone mansplain why the more efficient and cheaper tests are not in broader circulation? Everyone in the process, from the patients to the insurance companies, must prefer it, so is it purely politics?

Bill Gates on Covid: Most US Tests Are ‘Completely Garbage’ | WIRED

[johnmdesigner]

How Plagues Have Changed the Course of World History

Not sure if this was mentioned before but I thought this was a good read.

[coolberto hipsterdor]

Could someone mansplain why the more efficient and cheaper tests are not in broader circulation? Everyone in the process, from the patients to the insurance companies, must prefer it, so is it purely politics?

Bill Gates on Covid: Most US Tests Are ‘Completely Garbage’ | WIRED

So long story short is now I'm an automation engineer working in biotech for a company that makes a 90+% reliable covid test that works in 1 hour. It can do PCR for the virus and LFA for antibodies in the same test. Sounds great right? Well, we aren't producing them in great enough numbers to test everyone. The market for reagents and supplies like tubes is hot. NIH is currently in the process of giving out grants to companies to make more tests. If there was an appropriate political response at the beginning of the pandemic we would be ahead on manufacturing tests but instead the Trump administration denied reality and here we are.

TL:DR there aren't enough to go around and resources are low and too late.

[Will Neide]

Could someone mansplain why the more efficient and cheaper tests are not in broader circulation? Everyone in the process, from the patients to the insurance companies, must prefer it, so is it purely politics?

Bill Gates on Covid: Most US Tests Are ‘Completely Garbage’ | WIRED

He's somewhat right, but the headline is spun to imply the testing is garbage. He's saying that the results are taking too long to return and thus the results are useless. He's correct that many reference labs are experiencing long turn around times.

It's too complicated to dive into on a public forum, but as Coolberto noted, there is a shortage of supplies. On top of that, there is a shortage of human capital to perform the testing.

[bironi]

It is very complicated.
This article had my head spinning a bit.

How to Test Every American for COVID-19, Every Day - The Atlantic

[coolberto hipsterdor]

Another thing is a lot of these tests require a lab to process them. The test taking 15 minutes (supposedly) is one thing, but the infrastructure of administering the test, sending it to the lab, having a lab worker do the test and not screw it up, and send the results back, is the issue. And yeah that's not taking into account materials, chemicals, and worse: who is paying for the test with our convoluted medical system. Oh and let's not forget that many tests are waiting for an EUA in order to even be able to use the test in a clinical setting. The EUA people are jerking everyone around and apparently have required the NIH people to help get them back on track - except for one test I've heard of lately that got the EUA. Who knows how many others are just waiting for the bureaucracy to move.

EDIT: another thing you might find interesting is that WRT the NIH grant, they are asking companies to confirm their supply chain is capable of supplying everything AND that they (the company applying for the grant) have (a plan for) the infrastructure and distribution network BEFORE giving them the grant.

[coolberto hipsterdor]

It is very complicated.
This article had my head spinning a bit.

How to Test Every American for COVID-19, Every Day - The Atlantic

This is a good article IMO

[Chik]

It is very complicated.
This article had my head spinning a bit.

How to Test Every American for COVID-19, Every Day - The Atlantic

Interesting read. Thanks for that.

[beeatnik]

The Atlantic's coverage of the pandemic has been the most balanced of major media, especially on the school issue.