Covid19

[Chik]

Covid: Genes hold clues to why some people get severely ill

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54832563

Thanks, Paul. Very interesting.

[beeatnik]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-capacity.html

Hospitals serving more than 100 million Americans reported having fewer than 15 percent of intensive care beds still available as of last week, according to a Times analysis of data reported by hospitals and released by the Department of Health and Human Services.

Many areas are even worse off: One in 10 Americans — across a large swath of the Midwest, South and Southwest — lives in an area where intensive care beds are either completely full, or fewer than 5 percent of beds are available. At these levels, experts say maintaining existing standards of care for the sickest patients may be difficult or impossible.

LA Co Residents: 10M
Covid-19 cases in the last 3 days: 38K
Covid-19 7 day case rate per 100k: 100 plus
Hospital situation: Not quite critical

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...s-yours#lookup

If LA Co were a state it would have the 2nd highest case rate in the United States.

https://globalepidemics.org/key-metr...d-suppression/

[takashi]

LA Co Residents: 10M
Covid-19 cases in the last 3 days: 38K
Covid-19 7 day case rate per 100k: 100 plus
Hospital situation: Not quite critical

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...s-yours#lookup

If LA Co were a state it would have the 2nd highest case rate in the United States.

https://globalepidemics.org/key-metr...d-suppression/

that NPR link. is that not examining total beds available and not just ICU beds?

seems like the situation is pretty critical in fact. CA for example

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...ls/ar-BB1bR46C

"California’s rural Central Valley has also been hit hard. Six counties there had only 31 ICU beds left as of Friday morning to serve more than 2 million people who live in the area, according to data released by California’s department of public health. The San Joaquin Valley region, which includes those six counties and six others, had the least available space in the state, with only 1.9% ICU capacity."

seems pretty critical

[htwoopup]

It is interesting how this whole thing has shown all kinds of systemic issues. Where I am at the moment in Quebec, we have just yesterday been made a "Red Zone" which is the highest level. This means some pretty severe measures. People are rightfully freaking out. Restaurants are closed except delivery/ takeout. No one is permitted to be with others who do not live at the same address (Family gatherings are forbidden with a big fine. This is even a bigger deal in Quebec than the US because they are ALL about family). We can't even leave the red zone lest we spread the disease to someone in a yellow zone. Of course, the ski area will stay open but they have closed everything indoors about it...except the bathrooms which is probably a (no pun intended) leaky situation for spread.

But the numbers are so low in number of cases for all of the Laurentians that it would be a blip in the number in my zip code in NYC.

However, our local hospital is operating at 172% of capacity in the ER and the next closest one (an hour away at ambulance speeds) is at 156%. Total ICU beds available can be counted on my hands. There aren't a lot of hospitals and there probably should be more. But it is usually enough. So what to do long term? Plan/ train/ budget for endless disasters or not?

Even fat bike riding or skiing and hitting one's head is probably not a good idea.

[beeatnik]

that NPR link. is that not examining total beds available and not just ICU beds?

seems like the situation is pretty critical in fact. CA for example

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...ls/ar-BB1bR46C

"California’s rural Central Valley has also been hit hard. Six counties there had only 31 ICU beds left as of Friday morning to serve more than 2 million people who live in the area, according to data released by California’s department of public health. The San Joaquin Valley region, which includes those six counties and six others, had the least available space in the state, with only 1.9% ICU capacity."

seems pretty critical

It's critical in small towns. For LA and the other major SoCal cities, ICU capacity should not be the primary metric. My brother-in-law provides staffing for a 400 bed hospital. After a month long surge (1000% increase in County cases), the number of Covid-19 patients is still a manageable 15% of available beds (62 out 410). At 62% capacity, there are 156 "available" beds. According to my BIL, the hospital recently added 3 covid-19 floors. The big hospitals are adapting.

[j44ke]

Diego Ulissi is out of cycling temporarily due to myocarditis. It does not say whether Ulissi had covid or not, but I was just reading some info on myocarditis in asymptomatic covid infections after an otherwise healthy friend of mine dropped dead while birding in Ecuador a few weeks ago. Another birder who is a cardiologist commented on the possibility of covid-related myocardial infection. As far as anyone knows, my friend did not have any covid symptoms nor was he ever tested for antibodies. However, no autopsy due to covid restrictions, and cremation was the only way to get the body back to the US. I knew covid could create heart problems, but I was not aware that asymptomatic cases could do so as well, though I don't know why I assumed it couldn't. Interesting and scary. One more thing....

https://cyclingtips.com/2020/12/ulis...o-myocarditis/

[Clean39T]

Diego Ulissi is out of cycling temporarily due to myocarditis. It does not say whether Ulissi had covid or not, but I was just reading some info on myocarditis in asymptomatic covid infections after an otherwise healthy friend of mine dropped dead while birding in Ecuador a few weeks ago. Another birder who is a cardiologist commented on the possibility of covid-related myocardial infection. As far as anyone knows, my friend did not have any covid symptoms nor was he ever tested for antibodies. However, no autopsy due to covid restrictions, and cremation was the only way to get the body back to the US. I knew covid could create heart problems, but I was not aware that asymptomatic cases could do so as well, though I don't know why I assumed it couldn't. Interesting and scary. One more thing....

https://cyclingtips.com/2020/12/ulis...o-myocarditis/

Sorry for your loss Jorn. Man, it's stuff like this that makes me feel good about taking the extra precautions and being one of the OCD folks about all this - doesn't mean I won't get it, hell, I could be asymptomatic and not known it too - but it feels like the prudent stance to take anyway, given I have the privilege to take it.

[vertical_doug]

Sorry for your loss Jorn. Man, it's stuff like this that makes me feel good about taking the extra precautions and being one of the OCD folks about all this - doesn't mean I won't get it, hell, I could be asymptomatic and not known it too - but it feels like the prudent stance to take anyway, given I have the privilege to take it.

You can just watch the collapse of Keyontae Johnson in the Florida basketball game this weekend. He had covid earlier in the year. Are they related?

[j44ke]

Thanks for the kind words. It has been quite a year for everyone I think. Some day they will need to make a memorial somewhere for this year. I hope it is just a year.

According to CyclingNews, they’ve ruled out a covid-related infection due to absence of antibodies.

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/die...tis-diagnosis/

Myocarditis can occur without covid of course. My wife’s father had a whole host of issues towards the end of his life, and myocarditis was part of that overall break down of the body’s defenses. But when it shows up in otherwise healthy people, it seems more curious.

[Colinmclelland]

There was earlier question about how Australia had done well. Well, I'm on the Northern Beaches. Yesterday morning, there was one case reported at Avalon. As of 11am this morning that was up to 28 cases (I think). Well hellfire and damnation. There is no suggestion it will just blow over. 28 cases. Not 280 or 2,800 or 28,000. 28. Things are being done about it.

If you live on the Northern Beaches stay the fuck home is the recommendation. Not an enforceable law, but people generally are. Not a very convenient time of year to be staying at home, but suck it up princess. We've got three days. If it's under control buy Sunday night, then it's all good. If it's not, I suspect polite requests to not be a fcuking idiot will become a bit more forceful.

[vertical_doug]

Ski holidays are off after the Swiss government banned UK tourists in the New Year due to 'high-risk' Covid-19 infection rate
2020-12-18 23:05:19.220 GMT

(Daily Mail) - Thousands of ski holidays have been abruptly cancelled after
the Swiss government announced a ban on British tourists from January 1.

Travellers will be unable to enter Switzerland for non-essential travel
because the UK will be categorised as a ‘high-risk’ country after Brexit.

Switzlerland has been open to British visitors during the pandemic thanks to
rules which allow travel between countries within EU’s Schengen free movement
zone.

But the UK will not be treated under those rules after Brexit, meaning member
states could choose to block British arrivals due to our high infection rates.

The Swiss government website confirmed last night: ‘If you are a UK national
you may not enter Switzerland for non-essential travel (e.g. for the purpose
of tourism) from 1 January 2021 for as long as the UK is categorized as a
high-risk country by Switzerland.’

Some winter holidaymakers had pinned their hopes on Switzerland, which is one
of the few places in Europe with resorts still open.

Although travellers from the country must self-isolate on return, their
quarantine can be cut from 10 days to as little as five under the ‘test to
release’ scheme for travellers.

It comes after Norway announced they would also ban British travellers in the
New Year due to our high infection rate.

-0- Dec/18/2020 23:05 GMT

[thollandpe]

California hospitals struggling as coronavirus cases explode — AP

“I’m not going to sugarcoat this. We are getting crushed,” said Dr. Brad Spellberg, chief medical officer at Los Angeles County-USC Medical Center.

[vertical_doug]

We obviously have other priorities...
I am amazed how he always keeps a straight face.

Since Trump/Pence screws up everything he touches, this is when we get hit by an asteroid to finish off the year.
Trump must be an Expanse fan and he is worried about Belters.

[Chik]

I had the same thought about priorities when I read the space farce news except that what came to my mind was not the pandemic but the Russian hacking which could render this thing rather pointless or worse.

[Too Tall]

Nearly p'd myself over that one and yeah I'm a uuuge Guardians of the Galaxy fan.

Amateur hr. at the W.H., will we miss it?

[sine]

Amateur hr. at the W.H., will we miss it?

Hell no.

[bironi]

Hard to know where to place this on the forum.
But here it is.

https://www.nytimes.com/video/opinio...tro-olega.html

[j44ke]

So I am not trying to diminish cause for alarm if there is reason to be alarmed, but the more virulent strain narrative sounds similar to the narrative NY was given as explanation for why the virus traveled so quickly through the city in March/April. I believe that narrative eventually replaced increased virulence with opportunity for infection - meaning that variant appeared earliest when preventative policy was at its lowest so it became the predominant strain and later strain numbers were lower due to precautions and other factors. It just looked like higher virulence.

So is British policy an abundance of caution or is it a miscalculation by the Johnson government trying to leverage incomplete data to tamp down a stubborn level of bad behavior among British with a bit of a short sharp shock and thereby alarming Europe with unintended consequences?

[vertical_doug]

So is British policy an abundance of caution or is it a miscalculation by the Johnson government trying to leverage incomplete data to tamp down a stubborn level of bad behavior among British with a bit of a short sharp shock and thereby alarming Europe with unintended consequences?

Perfect storm- all of the above.

1. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

We went into lock down Nov 2, and came off Dec 3. You see the curve bend, but it immediately shot back up with a vengeance. I think this scared the crap out of the gov. Unfortunately, the surprised announcement just started a stampede for the exits and Londoners left London for second homes and essentially accelerating the geographic spread.

2. In London, a lot of people (especially the young) want to have a big covid party and the behavior is terrible (i.e. apply alcohol) If you have the Christmas holiday, it is a recipe for really rapid spread.

3. UKGov is a bit punch drunk right now. Between the demands of Covid, and the demands of trying to negotiate Brexit, they are just getting beaten down daily.

4. Because of the difficult nature of Brexit negotiations, any goodwill towards UK has left the continent. EU Countries were already discussing the end of open borders with the UK post Brexit, this just accelerated a door being slammed shut. From early reports, the new strain is confirmed in Netherlands, Denmark, Italy, Australia.

I could go on, but you get the picture. If Antlocker or Paul disagree, please chime in. Paul is up in the north, and it may be different up there, although at this point, he may switch allegiances and join SNP and agitate for devolution.

[j44ke]

So does that mean that closed borders are now status quo and to reopen them, movement will have to occur in Brexit negotiations? Covid has infected Brexit in other words.

The siege of the UK begins?