The Vaccine Thread

[GrantM]

That's one factor, possibly the most important. But the emerging research in airborne/aerosol transmission highlights the connection between "virus rich environments" and severity of disease. The numbers in LA Co (and nationwide, actually) are not confidence inspiring. Fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have similar or worse outcomes than non vaccinated persons. Full transparency on where and how these infections are occurring is critical.

Ultimately, the point of vaccines isn't to protect the vaccinated in a "virus rich environment" but to stop transmission and thus end the virus outbreak.
On that front, the numbers are fantastic. Look at how Israel is doing a few months after mass vaccination.

[bigbill]

I stopped by a convenience store yesterday to buy ice for a cookout...sign on the door required masks to enter. Went back to the car, donned the mask, entered the store to pay for the ice and the clerk was maskless.

To prove my love to my wife, I went to Walmart on a Saturday to buy a butane refill for our kitchen torch (creme brulee, etc). The banner by the doors said masks are required so I wore one, but when I entered the store, the greeter/security guy wasn't wearing one. I'd say 90% of the folks including employees were mask free. I continued to wear mine out of defiance. As of today, Nevada is allowing full occupancy in restaurants, bars, and casinos. On the honor system, if a person is vaccinated, no mask is required. I'm still wearing one at work.

[Saab2000]

To prove my love to my wife, I went to Walmart on a Saturday to buy a butane refill for our kitchen torch (creme brulee, etc). The banner by the doors said masks are required so I wore one, but when I entered the store, the greeter/security guy wasn't wearing one. I'd say 90% of the folks including employees were mask free. I continued to wear mine out of defiance. As of today, Nevada is allowing full occupancy in restaurants, bars, and casinos. On the honor system, if a person is vaccinated, no mask is required. I'm still wearing one at work.

When I go to enclosed places like Target or the grocery store or the airport whenever I go back to work I may continue to wear the mask simply because I’ve enjoyed about 18 months of no colds or flu-like symptoms.

I’m still curious about the adolescent defiance some folks have towards the vaccine but maybe that will eventually fade as people realize it’s not the negative thing some conspiracies and conspiracy-oriented politicians make it out to be.

The hostility towards the vaccine and mask wearing is nothing short of idiotic.

[Tom]

I started laughing this weekend because NYS is allowing you to go without a mask if you're vaccinated and I realized I've gotten so comfortable wearing one I'll feel weird not wearing one. I was heading into a Lowe's and U-turned because I was preoccupied and forgot to put it on when I got out of the car. About half the people in there were without, but all the people working there were wearing masks so I figured I should continue until the people dealing with all of us figure they're good, too.

[gregl]

I started laughing this weekend because NYS is allowing you to go without a mask if you're vaccinated and I realized I've gotten so comfortable wearing one I'll feel weird not wearing one. I was heading into a Lowe's and U-turned because I was preoccupied and forgot to put it on when I got out of the car. About half the people in there were without, but all the people working there were wearing masks so I figured I should continue until the people dealing with all of us figure they're good, too.

Similar dynamic in my CNY workplace. We used an anonymous poll to evaluate our employees' willingness to get vaccinated followed by the honor system if they want to be unmasked when they return to the office. On your first day back in the office, you are asked to sign in and (if you plan to NOT wear a mask) attest that you have been vaccinated. No proof of vaccination is required. Once you attest that you are vaccinated, you get a green sticker to put on you ID badge. Nearly all employees have the green stickers, but many are still wearing masks. I carry a mask at all times and always ask masked employees if they would like me to wear it in their presence. I understand that this is a very uncertain time for many people and want to do everything possible to make my co-workers feel safe and comfortable.

Greg

[beeatnik]

Not disagreeing with that. The numbers are super low in LA Co as well, likely a combination of vaccination and prior infection levels of 50% plus(highest in the United States). My original observation was that if in the unlikely (rare) event of infection, the outcomes will be similar to those in the pre-vaccination pandemic; a hospitalization rate of 7% and a case fatality rate of 1.3%. Others have pointed out that breakthrough infections aren't truly infections as a high proportion are asymptomatic and aren't being captured (or won't be captured as the CDC changed the definition). What I'm curious about is how these vaccinated individuals are being infected. Are they being infected by asymptomatic carriers (not likely) or are they being infected in higher risk environments. For me the takeaway is that there will always be "virus abundant" places where the risk of infection and the possibility of a bad outcome are high, regardless of vaccination status. Also, as I understand it, severe disease is an important endpoint.


Two of the endpoints—virologically confirmed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection regardless of the severity of symptoms (COVID-19) and virologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection with symptoms classified as severe (severe COVID-19)—will likely be universally used because they fit standard endpoints used in virtually all vaccine efficacy trials (7). Coronavirus disease 2019 is ascertained at presentation, whereas severe COVID-19 is ascertained at presentation and through a fixed schedule of postdiagnosis follow-up (Figure 1, bottom), which continues through the resolution of all symptoms, ensuring that all severe COVID-19 endpoints are distinguished from nonsevere COVID-19 endpoints

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6169

Ultimately, the point of vaccines isn't to protect the vaccinated in a "virus rich environment" but to stop transmission and thus end the virus outbreak.

On that front, the numbers are fantastic. Look at how Israel is doing a few months after mass vaccination.

[dashDustin]

Just got round #2 of Moderna. 7.5 weeks post onset of symptoms. We'll see how this goes.

Today hasn't been fun. Probably shouldn't have come to the office. Feel like I've been plowed into by a truck.

I really can't believe how bad my arm hurts. Was not expecting that. Kept me up all night.
I've been peeing non-stop.
4hr cycle of ibuprofen and acetaminophen has kept the headache at bay, but I can feel it just waiting to pounce.

Hoping tomorrow is better. Supposed to be officiating my first race.

[Octave]

I’m still curious about the adolescent defiance some folks have towards the vaccine but maybe that will eventually fade as people realize it’s not the negative thing some conspiracies and conspiracy-oriented politicians make it out to be.

Cultural background plays a huge role here - I have immediate colleagues (i.e. people who work directly in pharma, at a company who produces vaccines and is working on COVID drugs) who have expressed vaccine hesitancy and are not planning to get vaccinated. They both come from first-generation Chinese parents who are staunchly anti-"chemicals in the body." If thirty-somethings with PhDs working in the biotech/pharma industry feel that way, what luck do we have convincing those who get their science education from Facebook? I'm not holding my breath on any collective immunity...

[beeatnik]

Cultural background plays a huge role here - I have immediate colleagues (i.e. people who work directly in pharma, at a company who produces vaccines and is working on COVID drugs) who have expressed vaccine hesitancy and are not planning to get vaccinated. They both come from first-generation Chinese parents who are staunchly anti-"chemicals in the body." If thirty-somethings with PhDs working in the biotech/pharma industry feel that way, what luck do we have convincing those who get their science education from Facebook? I'm not holding my breath on any collective immunity...

Do you believe that natural immunity from infection has a role in collective immunity?

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti.../covid19/92836

LA Co from worst to best:

lacocases.jpeg

nat.jpeg

nat2.jpeg

nat3.jpeg

[Octave]

Do you believe that natural immunity from infection has a role in collective immunity?

Yes, with some asterisks. First, it is likely that the spectrum of resistance in individuals previously exposed is more narrow; in other words, while the vaccines thus far seem quite effective against the known variants, natural immunity might be less broad. Second, it appears that there may some difference in the duration of immunity (longer with vaccines, but not by much). Third, the severity of response to the initial infection may determine the level of antibodies and thus immune response, which is likely more variable than the vaccine response. This is all largely conjecture and discussion amongst scientists, though - the data are still in development...

There is a nice summary/discussion from the WHO, here: https://www.who.int/publications/i/i...assport-2021.1

That all being said, of course areas with high previous rates of infection, like LA, have a more virus-resistant population without question, based simply on ANY degree of natural immunity as compared to areas with lower historical infections. The real danger comes from areas with high vaccine hesitancy and low infection rates during the first and second waves of the virus, like Northern California and Southern Oregon, for example.

[beeatnik]

That all being said, of course areas with high previous rates of infection, like LA, have a more virus-resistant population without question, based simply on ANY degree of natural immunity as compared to areas with lower historical infections. The real danger comes from areas with high vaccine hesitancy and low infection rates during the first and second waves of the virus, like Northern California and Southern Oregon, for example.

Would the relative isolation and low population densities of these regions allow the virus to remain endemic in those communities without contributing to surges in population centers with higher rates of vaccination and exposure?

[Octave]

Would the relative isolation and low population densities of these regions allow the virus to remain endemic in those communities without contributing to surges in population centers with higher rates of vaccination and exposure?

In theory, yes, it just means that the virus will never actually stop circulating (an unrealistic goal to begin with, in my opinion). Also, high rates of community infection like that, even with an isolated community, can promote the emergence of new variants and, just like with previous coronaviruses, these may render the vaccines ineffective and force frequent boosters to accommodate.

[takashi]

Ultimately, the point of vaccines isn't to protect the vaccinated in a "virus rich environment" but to stop transmission and thus end the virus outbreak.
On that front, the numbers are fantastic. Look at how Israel is doing a few months after mass vaccination.

"*Excluding the Palestinian Territories."

[Mark Walberg]

Ultimately, the point of vaccines isn't to protect the vaccinated in a "virus rich environment" but to stop transmission and thus end the virus outbreak.

Ultimately, I certainly agree.
However, I got the vaccine for me and my family, not for everyone else. I work in a high risk place - a hospital and outpatient clinic. Happy to be helpful, though.

[gregl]

And now from the lighter side of the vaccine saga: a co-worker just told me his vaccine-hesitant father took the plunge (or in this case, the shot). His reason for getting the vaccination - he got a free scratch-off lottery ticket. And he won $30! Beer, lottery tickets, scholarships, free candy (at my place of employment) - I don't care why you get the COVID vaccine, I'm just glad you're getting it!

Greg

[echappist]

And now from the lighter side of the vaccine saga: a co-worker just told me his vaccine-hesitant father took the plunge (or in this case, the shot). His reason for getting the vaccination - he got a free scratch-off lottery ticket. And he won $30! Beer, lottery tickets, scholarships, free candy (at my place of employment) - I don't care why you get the COVID vaccine, I'm just glad you're getting it!

Greg

I'm more ambivalent about this. If trinkets and lottery tickets are sufficient to sway people to renounce their former position, then whatever stance they previous took just seems insincere. Would we see a repeat of this sort of hand wringing when it comes to booster shots? After all, if the hesitant ended up willingly receiving the vaccine the first go around, why should they be indulged during administration of booster shots.

[takashi]

"*Excluding the Palestinian Territories."

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vac...untry=OWID_WRL

Screen Shot 2021-06-03 at 11.43.41 AM.png

[gregl]

I'm more ambivalent about this. If trinkets and lottery tickets are sufficient to sway people to renounce their former position, then whatever stance they previous took just seems insincere. Would we see a repeat of this sort of hand wringing when it comes to booster shots? After all, if the hesitant ended up willingly receiving the vaccine the first go around, why should they be indulged during administration of booster shots.

Of course their previous stance was insincere. It was tribal/cult based, not science based. My take: while I'd like people's rationale for getting the COVID vaccines to be logic/science based, not all people are logical. So we provide the logic and science, but if we need to use trinkets, I'm OK with that. Reminds me of potty training my daughter...

Greg

[beeatnik]

Vaccine Hesitancy and Anecdata

I've read articles by experts and statements by public health professionals that lower vaccination rates are the result of:

1. Party affiliation
2. Distrust of the government
3. Lack of access to transportation
4. Employer obstruction (No paid time off)
5. Immigrant status of parents

I believe all the above are too simplistic. They fail to acknowledge one variable: fear. My mother was born in a 500 person village in Central Mexico that lacked all infrastructure. She had historical and personal memory of a time before vaccines and access to modern medicine. To her drugs were miracles and yet when she was diagnosed with cancer, she supplemented her first cycles of chemo with natural remedies. When most of her cancer friends passed away in the first year of treatment, she recalibrated her approach, more chemo, more aloe juice, more prayer less powdered shark. I think that's the risk calculus we keep ignoring. In underserved communities, the access is there (in LA they bring vaccines to homeless encampments) and in most cases fear is the major motivation but there are enough individuals who won't be compelled by public health arguments as their sense of urgency is not as great as yours or mine. As I've mentioned in other threads, asymmetries have mostly shielded the affluent but youth and indifference are their own form of privilege.

This is a problematic article:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/28/o...e=articleShare

[Marvinlungwitz]

Dang, she beats Rand Paul on the wacko meter. Impressive.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video...classic-iphone