The Vaccine Thread

[vertical_doug]

Harvard Business School has moved its first-year MBA students and some in their second year to remote learning amid a rise in breakthrough Covid infections.

Students will move to online classes for the week of September 27 to October 3, and the school has also asked students to stop unmasked indoor activities, cancel group travel, and limit in-person interactions with people outside their household.

“In recent days, we’ve seen a steady rise in breakthrough infections among our student population, despite high vaccination rates and frequent testing,” said Mark Cautela, spokesperson for Harvard Business School.

“Contact tracers who have worked with positive cases highlight that transmission is not occurring in classrooms or other academic settings on campus. Nor is it occurring among individuals who are masked,” he added.

The Ivy League school has introduced more frequent Covid testing, with students now testing three times a week, and is readying a daily email to keep students updated on “all aspects of the situation”.

Overall, 95 per cent of students and 96 per cent of employees at Harvard are vaccinated against Covid-19.

Harvard Business School has 1,010 students enrolled in its first year. It was not clear how many second-year students were affected by the move.

[AngryScientist]

what shit luck it would be to be a college student in the middle of this hot mess. some of the funnest, most formative years and kids are being asked to "stop unmasked indoor activities" - what a bummer, and no end in sight.

[swt]

what shit luck it would be to be a college student in the middle of this hot mess. some of the funnest, most formative years and kids are being asked to "stop unmasked indoor activities" - what a bummer, and no end in sight.

It's pretty rough for HS students too. Same social issues, but for many the grades are really difficult to get under the circumstances. So, they are facing losing out on the prospect of losing out on the college experience. At least we can keep them safe and healthy?

[AngryScientist]

At least we can keep them safe and healthy?

Not to sound dismissive, but healthy high school and college kids are pretty much bulletproof. Fully vax'd very young adults arent going to have any more trouble with a breakthrough case of covid than a rough hangover.

[gregl]

It's pretty rough for HS students too. Same social issues, but for many the grades are really difficult to get under the circumstances. So, they are facing losing out on the prospect of losing out on the college experience. At least we can keep them safe and healthy?

For anyone from pre-school to grad-school, COVID has been very challenging. I marvel at how well the kids have adapted while so many adults have acted like children. Perhaps the adults should look to the students as role models on how to accept challenging circumstances? My daughter is my hero. Half her junior year and all of her senior year of college were under the shadow of COVID. Now she's student teaching and working on her masters in education while dealing with delta. Through it all, she has been positive and adaptable. She's going to be an amazing math teach this time next year.

Greg

[bigbill]

For anyone from pre-school to grad-school, COVID has been very challenging. I marvel at how well the kids have adapted while so many adults have acted like children. Perhaps the adults should look to the students as role models on how to accept challenging circumstances? My daughter is my hero. Half her junior year and all of her senior year of college were under the shadow of COVID. Now she's student teaching and working on her masters in education while dealing with delta. Through it all, she has been positive and adaptable. She's going to be an amazing math teach this time next year.

Greg

My son has dealt with Covid for almost half his time at the Naval Academy. In February of 2020 he broke his arm, had surgery, went on Spring Break, and then they locked down the campus for Covid. Instead of summer training, he spent it with me in AZ doing online classes from May until mid July. They locked down again for the fall semester, had the Army-Navy game at West Point so they could isolate from the general public. He returned from winter break in January 2021 and tested positive about a week later. It ended up that his cousins had it but "just thought it was a cold" even though they had lost taste/smell. Later in spring he and his classmates were all vaccinated, it wasn't optional. He got to do summer training at Quantico and Powered Flight in Maryland. Now they're wearing masks on campus even though literally, everyone is vaccinated. Army-Navy is still scheduled to happen at The Meadowlands in December. He and his friends will come out of this stronger mentally, but it's sad that it happened like this.

[Sascha Roszak]

We are currently in lockdown until vaccinations have reached the required level to open up so I read the news online (mainly Australian) each morning then I look up the same news outlets Facebook pages to see the comments. What I find fascinating about the comments section is the variety and types of comments, some are just over being in lockdown, pro & anti-vaccination, anti government and others with no real points other than wanting to sprout stuff just to be heard. It is interesting but also scary to see the lack of rationale and paranoia that has developed as a result of this, it also makes me wonder how much social media platforms contribute to this?

[swt]

Not to sound dismissive, but healthy high school and college kids are pretty much bulletproof. Fully vax'd very young adults arent going to have any more trouble with a breakthrough case of covid than a rough hangover.

Can we all be favor of nobody getting the disease? What you say may or not true about adolescents. However, what about when big brother gives it to little sister who is too young to be vaccinated and she ends up being intubated?
Besides, I was referring more to the overall mental and physical health of adolescents.

[Octave]

Can we all be favor of nobody getting the disease? What you say may or not true about adolescents. However, what about when big brother gives it to little sister who is too young to be vaccinated and she ends up being intubated?

+100

There is still a fair bit to understand about the long-term consequences of the inflammatory assault that peoples' organs experience during COVID. And it is well known that vaccinated individuals can very readily spread the disease to the unvaccinated and vaccinated vulnerable people they come in contact with. Asymptomatic vaccinated people can still kill their grandparents, in other words.

Are those risks we should be willing to accept because the discomfort of masking or the psychological disturbance of HS students required to social distance etc outweigh them? what R-value or mortality rate would change that equation? Smallpox? Polio? I'm genuinely curious.

[beeatnik]

There is still a fair bit to understand about the long-term consequences of the inflammatory assault that peoples' organs experience during COVID. And it is well known that vaccinated individuals can very readily spread the disease to the unvaccinated and vaccinated vulnerable people they come in contact with. Asymptomatic vaccinated people can still kill their grandparents, in other words.

We're never going back to "normal."

No vaxx rate high enough and no breakthrough rate reported in real time.


Vaccinated NBA staffers concerned about health risks of being exposed to unvaccinated players as season approaches

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...son-approaches

Though roughly 90% of NBA players are vaccinated as training camp approaches Tuesday, tension exists between those around the league mandated to be vaccinated and the nearly 40 unvaccinated players, league sources told ESPN.

In some instances, vaccinated staffers say they're concerned about the health risks of being exposed to unvaccinated players. In others, staffers say they're upset that players aren't facing the same vaccine requirements as most team staff and referees. In others, there's animosity toward the league itself for not imposing such a mandate.

This month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported results of a new study that examined vaccination data from 11 states and two major metropolitan counties.

From April 4 to June 19, fully vaccinated people accounted for 5% of cases (23,503), 7% of hospitalizations (2,025) and 8% of deaths overall (428).

But these same percentages increased from June 20 to July 17 -- rising to 18% of all cases (22,809), 14% of hospitalizations (951) and 16% of deaths overall (188).

In the April 4-June 19 data, the CDC noted an average of 10.1 breakthrough cases for every 100,000 fully vaccinated people across all ages. In the later period, such cases rose to an average of 19.4.

[spopepro]

+100

There is still a fair bit to understand about the long-term consequences of the inflammatory assault that peoples' organs experience during COVID. And it is well known that vaccinated individuals can very readily spread the disease to the unvaccinated and vaccinated vulnerable people they come in contact with. Asymptomatic vaccinated people can still kill their grandparents, in other words.

Are those risks we should be willing to accept because the discomfort of masking or the psychological disturbance of HS students required to social distance etc outweigh them? what R-value or mortality rate would change that equation? Smallpox? Polio? I'm genuinely curious.

This year in the first weeks of school in our county we saw a 10x increase in suspension/expulsion actions compared to two years ago. Assault, sexual assault, weapons on campus... it was honestly wild. Couple that with our mental health services being overwhelmed, services that were significantly increased due to us expecting the need but we either underestimated the need, or underfunded it. I'm not 100% sure as that's not my division. Kids are being as resilient as they can be, but to talk as if they somehow have it all together through this is false. Many are deeply scarred by their experiences in isolation, fear, and loss over the past year and a half. The kids might not *need* school, but they need interaction, structures, and support and school in-person is typically how we facilitate that.

I think the issue is that most people have a very poor framework for risk assessment. It's easy to minimize risk at any given moment in isolation. You see that all the time with people choosing not to exercise because they are afraid of injury, afraid of cars, afraid of failure, and end up with various metabolic syndromes later because they were only managing the risk in the moment. I do excessively risky things in many people's minds, so I think about this a lot. For me, it's about triangulating the risk, the consequence, and the opportunity cost. There is a sweet spot in most circumstances where you have managed the risk, have limited consequence in higher risk situations, and you're not missing out on important things. I think we need some more of that in this discussion.

I can't talk too much about state test results--they are still embargoed officially. Generally speaking, they are not as bad as I, and many, thought they would be. However, I mentioned further upthread that we had schools with kids on campus since October 2020. Those schools saw *increases* from their 2019 performance on state tests. They were the only ones. Again, stories not data, I'd have to compile a whole lot more districts and isolate for some other factors, but generally speaking... the kids who have been on campus longer have had better outcomes in every way. Considering we haven't traced any spread to schools or school functions in our county, the choice seems really clear to me. At least for schools.

[holliscx]

Has anyone come across a statistic for the number of natural deaths worldwide during the pandemic? Basically how many people died of anything not attributed to Covid-19 during the pandemic? In Spain, they've reported number of coronavirus cases and deaths accurate to the minute but I've not seen one figure representing what would be considered normal deaths during the same time period. So, I would like to see statistics country by country if this exists anywhere?

[Scott G.]

[snip]So, I would like to see statistics country by country if this exists anywhere?

"Excess deaths" is what to search on.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...deaths-tracker

[Octave]

Thank you for your thoughtful response, @spopepro .

I think the issue is that most people have a very poor framework for risk assessment. It's easy to minimize risk at any given moment in isolation. You see that all the time with people choosing not to exercise because they are afraid of injury, afraid of cars, afraid of failure, and end up with various metabolic syndromes later because they were only managing the risk in the moment. I do excessively risky things in many people's minds, so I think about this a lot. For me, it's about triangulating the risk, the consequence, and the opportunity cost. There is a sweet spot in most circumstances where you have managed the risk, have limited consequence in higher risk situations, and you're not missing out on important things. I think we need some more of that in this discussion.

This bit stuck out to me as particularly poignant. I do not have children, nor am I a teacher, and my understanding of cognitive development is learned through textbooks, not as an observer in that sense, so I default to those who know better. As I see it, the risk assessment is a short-term danger (which can be mitigated to a large degree) competing against a long-term benefit, which is always a tricky thing to suss out. In this case, if x/100 kids get sick (or sicken others), but the remainder (y/100?) who do not get sick receive a proper education and social interactions necessary to their formative development, are we accepting that the loss/risk of/to X is offset by the benefit to Y? This is a bit utilitarian, which may appeal to some, but I find it hard to swallow. Then again, I have no horse in that race and have a generally poor understanding of the true consequences of stunted development caused by social isolation, fear, etc.

Clearly, the long-term goal is mitigation of the viral spread to a degree where it is truly manageable. As @beetnik posted just above, there is no going back to "normal" - I think any notion of this went out the window a while ago. That being said, we can settle into a new normal that perhaps satisfies the moral and ethical criteria of most people by finding a balance between personal liberty/agency and greater social well-being.

[AngryScientist]

In this case, if x/100 kids get sick (or sicken others), but the remainder (y/100?) who do not get sick receive a proper education and social interactions necessary to their formative development, are we accepting that the loss/risk of/to X is offset by the benefit to Y? This is a bit utilitarian, which may appeal to some, but I find it hard to swallow.

Having had to pull our kids out of school and have them home full time for close to two years, my answer to that question is absolutely yes. Kids need to be in school, in person learning how to follow rules, interact with others, foster friendships, manage arguments, play sports, give hugs and all the things that go along with being a community. Keeping them at home, apart from each other and in fear of catching a disease is not good.

In reference to the above Can we all be favor of nobody getting the disease? - sounds good but it is unrealistic and unachievable. From my perspective here in NJ breakthrough cases are by and large very mild if symptomatic at all and largely manageable with over the counter meds and home care so the more people who just go get vax'd up the better so we can minimize the severe cases, to me that's the real goal; spread is going to happen, minimize severe illness.

[steve garro]

Good to hear - my niece and her BF thought they should play the Youth card and they have been sick as hell for weeks now but better then my buddy Tom who was strictly anti vaxx extra-conspiracy strength (He once sent Joe Arpio a giant metal ant that the bomb squad tried to detonate with no effect to the ant, he just wanted Joe to have it for all his 'good' work) and he's on his belly now fully intubated and I don't think he's gonna make it.
His last words before the tube went in was "Thank God I didn't give it to my GF"

My poor wife is so cooked from 1.5 years of this in healthcare - also, had I had my heart attack now instead of a year ago, I'd be the dead guy - we're full - count me in for empathy burnout, I just can't care anymore - even with my niece, and this sounds awful, but my initial reaction was:

"Dummies. I hope they live."

And I LOVE my niece

- Garro.

Well shit........we lost Tom today on no kidding, his 60th B-day - he made it awhile intubated, long enough to require a tracheotomy but he couldn't beat it, it killed him dead.

Niece & anti-vaxx BF are alive

Fuckign dummies.
They didn't have to go through any of this.


- Garro.

[steve garro]

Has anyone come across a statistic for the number of natural deaths worldwide during the pandemic? Basically how many people died of anything not attributed to Covid-19 during the pandemic? In Spain, they've reported number of coronavirus cases and deaths accurate to the minute but I've not seen one figure representing what would be considered normal deaths during the same time period. So, I would like to see statistics country by country if this exists anywhere?

If you die from a heart attack you would have survived had the ICU not been full of covid patients - how do you tally that?

- Garro.

[AngryScientist]

I'm sorry for your loss @steve garro - my condolences.

[jimcav]

Having had to pull our kids out of school and have them home full time for close to two years, my answer to that question is absolutely yes. Kids need to be in school, in person learning how to follow rules, interact with others, foster friendships, manage arguments, play sports, give hugs and all the things that go along with being a community. Keeping them at home, apart from each other and in fear of catching a disease is not good.

In reference to the above Can we all be favor of nobody getting the disease? - sounds good but it is unrealistic and unachievable. From my perspective here in NJ breakthrough cases are by and large very mild if symptomatic at all and largely manageable with over the counter meds and home care so the more people who just go get vax'd up the better so we can minimize the severe cases, to me that's the real goal; spread is going to happen, minimize severe illness.

this is why clear messaging is important. impacts to children have the possibility of being addressed (and should be anticipated and mitigated early). death does not. there is a difference between exposure, infection, illness, and severe illness (which can result in disease to a critical organ or function). The word "disease" gets misinterpreted to mean difference things to lay persons.

The vaccines were not designed to meet the bar of 'no possible transmission', now even more true with Delta. and so focus on positive cases is mainly useful as a marker for the lifecycle of the pandemic. Focus should be on cases requiring healthcare resources, and those resulting in disability and death. These are the cases where the vaccine plays a key role.

The continued issue is that this SARS-COV-2 spreads more easily now, and still asymptomatically, which means those who are actually not individually at great risk for severe illness can, in fact do, transmit it to those who are at risk.

Enough countries have gone through this to show what works, and it is just sad that Americans have difficulty with the concept. Being a decent human and citizen involves a compact between rights and duties. Until the pandemic ends here, which it will, everyone should get the vaccine if eligible (to include medically allowed) and, since any of us can still asymptomatically spread this, mask when near others.

[beeatnik]

In reference to the above Can we all be favor of nobody getting the disease? - sounds good but it is unrealistic and unachievable. From my perspective here in NJ breakthrough cases are by and large very mild if symptomatic at all and largely manageable with over the counter meds and home care so the more people who just go get vax'd up the better so we can minimize the severe cases, to me that's the real goal; spread is going to happen, minimize severe illness.

One of the challenges for societal institutions will be progressing to an acceptable level of severe disease burden in this heterogenous and dynamic pandemic. Based on figures from nations and regions which offer granular data, the case fatality rates for Covid-19 overall continue to be higher than the flu for fully vaccinated individuals. For a few groups, the more frail elderly and immunocompromised, the case fatality rate hovers near 2% in the fully vaccinated. That number doesn't appear to be dependent on population level vaccination rates as breakthrough infections are now very common in highly vaccinated places. As Octave is more qualified to comment, I'll only speculate that there's tacit acknowledgement that more targeted boosters (with very high uptake) are the true long term exit strategy.