Ouster of the House Speaker

[caleb]

So Caleb, do think McHenry has read “I Claudius” ?

I never underestimate a man in a bowtie. He tends to have dramatic intuitions.

[j44ke]

I think this forgets how fraught his first nomination was, and now he’s in an even weaker position. He wasn’t able to pay out the checks he wrote to win the speakership when people tried to cash them.

A while ago someone observed that senators rarely win presidencies due to having too much voting record baggage. I think something similar will happen here that it’s going to be a lesser known person without baggage that triggers folks.

I haven’t forgotten I just think it is all so ridiculous there are measurable odds it will all end up coming back around.

[thollandpe]

I think the middle has gone missing.

Bro, the middle was deserted by the Republican party not long after we became adults, and subsequently occupied by the Democrats.

[spopepro]

Bro, the middle was deserted by the Republican party not long after we became adults, and subsequently occupied by the Democrats.

So this is only kinda true by objective measures. Professors Poole and Rosenthal made a model to try and statistically measure partisanship (and predict voting) called DW-NOMINATE. Since it's based on actual vote roll calls, it's free from news cycles, what a candidate might say or promise, and only focuses on impact. Yes, it is true that things have nearly monotonically become more polarized since 1980, and yes, more movement has happened from registered republicans, but it's been more nuanced than the quote above.

dwnominate.png

It is interesting to note that while there is one person voting in the middle now (interestingly, an R) the middle being filled in between 1930-1980 roughly is the exception, not the norm discounting the, shall we say tumultuous, mid 1800s. Additionally one could say that we are about as polarized now as we were at the turn of the 20th century. This excellent visualization is congress, but voteview allows you to see the house.

[woodworker]

It's the effect of gerrymandering. Both sides have to move to the extreme to win the primary, but they now do so without fear of alienating the middle in the general election. That's happened on both sides, but the R's have gone full wingnut.

Of course Roberts and the Supremes have now for decades pretty much rejected all efforts at getting them to referee the process or provide meaningful assistance on important voting rights issues.

The result is the extraordinary levels of partisanship we see today. There are other causes, but this is the root one IMHO.

[thollandpe]

So this is only kinda true by objective measures.

And that’s the difficulty of trying to measure this objectively. Especially by votes, as if the mythical center is halfway between nay and yea votes. Or that unbiased news lies halfway between OAN and CNN.

Nobody can say with any seriousness say that extremists like Gaetz and Boebert are somehow just as far from the views of middle Americans as Ocasio-Cortez and Pressley. Or that those first two are as interested in (or as capable of) doing the actual business of governing as the latter two.

One party has lost its fucking mind, and it’s high time we admit it and deal with it.

[spopepro]

Thollandpe—I am making assumptions here, but I’d assume you’re all for an objective reading of the Biden presidency. As outlined earlier in this thread he is executing one of the most liberal platforms in years, economic indicators are all strong, and for whatever reason… no one seems to believe it. Voting record is what makes law and what should really matter.

And I’d contend “losing one’s fucking mind” is a different parameter than “politically conservative”. And I agree, allowing Gaetz, MTG, and Santos to remain seated is certifiably insane.

But Gaetz’ voting record is “only” in the 70th percentile of current house republicans. No one talks about rep Ralph Norman… who is historically right of center. I guess my request is that we don’t just substitute party names or ideologies, real or imagined, for what we really mean. I disagree with Gaetz politics, but believe he is unfit because he is likely a sex trafficker, molester, and stochastic terrorist.

[BBB]

I'm pessimistic about the future of our country. There is too much selfishness and not enough selflessness. IIRC, Biden was a placeholder while the next generation of democrat national leaders was being groomed for 2024. Biden is too old for another sixty months in office, and his stated desire to run for reelection has stifled the next generation. Trump, in his desire to remain relevant, has splintered the right so only the most rabid will vote for him, while other republican candidates who hold more moderate views aren't getting press. The voting out of McCarthy drives the wedge even further.

IMO, Biden needs to declare his support for another candidate, or at the least agree to an open convention. Senator Feinstein should have retired a few years ago. The Governor could have appointed a replacement that would be heading into an election with enough experience to not be considered a "place holder." Trump is too old as well. And unhinged. He should plead guilty and be sent to prison for a decent stretch. The remaining candidates should shift away from the fringe elements of the republicans. I get it, in the primaries, a candidate has to be hard right or left to get the nomination, then shift toward the middle to win the general. I think the middle has gone missing.

I changed some bits.

There is too much selfishness in politicians all over the shop. Please see the current No campaign in Australia for example.

[bigbill]

I changed some bits.

Don't do that please.

[vertical_doug]

Thollandpe—I am making assumptions here, but I’d assume you’re all for an objective reading of the Biden presidency. As outlined earlier in this thread he is executing one of the most liberal platforms in years, economic indicators are all strong, and for whatever reason… no one seems to believe it. Voting record is what makes law and what should really matter.

And I’d contend “losing one’s fucking mind” is a different parameter than “politically conservative”. And I agree, allowing Gaetz, MTG, and Santos to remain seated is certifiably insane.

But Gaetz’ voting record is “only” in the 70th percentile of current house republicans. No one talks about rep Ralph Norman… who is historically right of center. I guess my request is that we don’t just substitute party names or ideologies, real or imagined, for what we really mean. I disagree with Gaetz politics, but believe he is unfit because he is likely a sex trafficker, molester, and stochastic terrorist.

I tend to think the real issue is politics as reported by the press for our consumption is really just Politics as Performance Art. It's a distraction from the real politics happen which are generally about money for the candidates.

I think Senator Sinema demanding the Carried Interest Tax be taken out of one of the bills last year just after California PE donated to her campaign, told me everything you need to know.

If the attitude of the republicans does not change going forward, you should assume it benefits the money supporting them. Understand the money, understand the real motives. The rest as I said before, is smoke and mirrors in the theater of the absurd.

I agree with Bill on Biden's age. Even as a life long liberal, I view Biden wanting to run for a second term as a crime against the republic. Feinstein death, Ginsberg death, should wake the national leadership of the DNC up, but it doesn't. It really is party before country. (I think Feinstein was not really function since around the Kavanaugh hearing which she screwed up. She was probably napping.)

I think it is still one of the best moments of Hamilton Musical when Washington tells Hamilton in 'One last time', let me teach them how to say goodbye

Our leadership is too old across the board on both sides.

[theflashunc]

Thollandpe—I am making assumptions here, but I’d assume you’re all for an objective reading of the Biden presidency. As outlined earlier in this thread he is executing one of the most liberal platforms in years, economic indicators are all strong, and for whatever reason… no one seems to believe it. Voting record is what makes law and what should really matter.

And I’d contend “losing one’s fucking mind” is a different parameter than “politically conservative”. And I agree, allowing Gaetz, MTG, and Santos to remain seated is certifiably insane.

But Gaetz’ voting record is “only” in the 70th percentile of current house republicans. No one talks about rep Ralph Norman… who is historically right of center. I guess my request is that we don’t just substitute party names or ideologies, real or imagined, for what we really mean. I disagree with Gaetz politics, but believe he is unfit because he is likely a sex trafficker, molester, and stochastic terrorist.

"Losing one's fucking mind" is 147 people voting against certifying an election after people of the same party tried to do a coup.

It's a party that openly supports political violence now. There are no moderate Republicans.

[BBB]

"Losing one's fucking mind" is 147 people voting against certifying an election after people of the same party tried to do a coup.

It's a party that openly supports political violence now. There are no moderate Republicans.

It's all legal if you are at the head of the tree. Apparently.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...hile-in-office

Given Trump is a pretty wealthy guy, is he actually being represented by the top criminal/constitutional/white collar lawyers in the US? His legal teams often seem to be a complete rabble. And frequently lose. I assume the best of the best don't want a bar of him, or there isn't the equivalent of a cab rank rule in the US.

[thollandpe]

“It's been clear for a really long time that too many people and also the NYT and pundits imagine the two parties as a husband and a wife, and the Democratic wife is supposed to placate and coddle the husband and help him look good no matter how dangerous, abusive, and destructive he is—and he is never supposed to do the same for her. So people even in this thread seem to be thinking Democrats should've helped McCarthy escape the trap he helped build and generally save Republicans from themselves.” —Rebecca Solnit

I thought that was an interesting perspective.

[jdanke]

A couple of days ago Rep. Raskin posted on that social media site...

Waiting for the vote and I reminded Jared Moskowitz that there was never so much chaos in the House when George Santos was Speaker.
Jared went over to Santos to tell him that and Santos said, “That’s why I don’t want to be Speaker again.”

[Scott G.]

[snip]I assume the best of the best don't want a bar of him, or there isn't the equivalent of a cab rank rule in the US.

No cab rank rule in the US, DJT has to find, first a lawyer who'll do what DJT wants,
second a lawyer who is ok with not getting paid, third, has some competence in the legal area in question.

One of DJT stratagems is hiring a drunk as counsel, this sets the stage for an appeal
based on incompentent counsel.

[vertical_doug]

Still, in time Deaton came to understand why Americans might be suspicious of government given that in the US it often works “not to protect ordinary people but to help rich predators make ordinary people poorer”. The political system, he said, is “more responsive to the needs of those who finance it than to its constituents”.

https://www.theguardian.com/inequali...ics-in-america

I think it goes hand in hand . . .


Angus Deaton on inequality: ‘The war on poverty has become a war on the poor’

[Mark Walberg]

Still, in time Deaton came to understand why Americans might be suspicious of government given that in the US it often works “not to protect ordinary people but to help rich predators make ordinary people poorer”. The political system, he said, is “more responsive to the needs of those who finance it than to its constituents”.

https://www.theguardian.com/inequali...ics-in-america

I think it goes hand in hand . . .


Angus Deaton on inequality: ‘The war on poverty has become a war on the poor’

I'm just starting to read Deaton's work. Very interesting and insightful. His work seems to suggest some strategies that could make things better. I'll be reading more of him.

[vertical_doug]

I'm just starting to read Deaton's work. Very interesting and insightful. His work seems to suggest some strategies that could make things better. I'll be reading more of him.

If you follow the George Santos court case, you see how everything done was largely to get access to GOP donor funds. And Santos is just a dweeb. Imagine what the real players are playing for.

[j44ke]

If you follow the George Santos court case, you see how everything done was largely to get access to GOP donor funds. And Santos is just a dweeb. Imagine what the real players are playing for.

Right - how else can Josh Hawley afford all his ass-pinching manly blue suits. Sexy doesn't just happen.

[COVRTDESIGN]

Right - how else can Josh Hawley afford all his ass-pinching manly blue suits. Sexy doesn't just happen.

Especially the spandex interweaved ones, those cost a pretty penny. For the man who wants to look good, but also needs to run away from an insurrection.