Middle east.

[colker]

It makes sense:
Can America win an unconventional war against Iran? - Middle East News - Haaretz.com

[mzilliox]

Relevant, and a good job in framing generally how we got here: Freedom without constraints: how the US squandered its cold war victory | News | The Guardian

Thanks John, This is one of the best articles I've read in some time. the substance of it rings awfully true and mirrors some of the thinking i have been doing lately.
Thanks

[Will Neide]

i think hes pissed off at our government for this war. I think hes not a huge fan of orangy trumpskin

I'm no fan of Trumpy, but the responses seem way over the top.

[Blue Jays]

President Trump skillfully and adroitly provided Iranian warlords an exit avenue here.
Iran also knows, clearly, he will hold the line if they unwisely seek further escalation.
Hammering the earlier nuclear deal (where they received pallets of cash) was excellent!

[HorsCat]

President Trump skillfully and adroitly provided Iranian warlords an exit avenue here.
Iran also knows, clearly, he will hold the line if they unwisely seek further escalation.
Hammering the earlier nuclear deal (where they received pallets of cash) was excellent!

You ever consider being a writer for SNL or another comedy show?

[davids]

The well mannered professionals got us to the place we’re at today. I’d like to see if a more unconventional approach produces better results.

Two years ago Iran was party to the JCPOA, a negotiated multilateral agreement that prohibited them from developing nuclear weapons until 2030. They agreed to open their facilities to UN inspectors for - and indeed beyond - the duration of the agreement. By all credible accounts Iran was abiding by the terms of this treaty. In exchange for their compliance, Iran profited by having multiple economic sanctions lifted.

The Trump administration pulled out of this multinational agreement a year and a half ago. The next day Iran fired missiles at Israel. The next year Iran resumed enriching uranium.

If you really see these as "better results" please explain.

President Trump skillfully and adroitly provided Iranian warlords an exit avenue here.
Iran also knows, clearly, he will hold the line if they unwisely seek further escalation.
Hammering the earlier nuclear deal (where they received pallets of cash) was excellent!

As a part of the JCPOA billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets were released to Iran. The United States also repaid Iran for pre-revolution payments made for US military contracts that, post-revolution, were not fulfilled.

Your characterization is not fair or accurate.

[jclay]

President Trump skillfully and adroitly provided Iranian warlords an exit avenue here.
Iran also knows, clearly, he will hold the line if they unwisely seek further escalation.
Hammering the earlier nuclear deal (where they received pallets of cash) was excellent!

You've got it backwards; the Iranians gave Trump an offramp while maintaining face domestically.

Trump is like a retarded bull in a china shop who thinks that breaking everything is a way to improve situations and move forward. Here is an interesting view point on what our orange cancer may have accomplished: How the Trump administration saved the Islamic Republic | Middle East | Al Jazeera

[Dallas Tex]

President Trump skillfully and adroitly provided Iranian warlords an exit avenue here.
Iran also knows, clearly, he will hold the line if they unwisely seek further escalation.
Hammering the earlier nuclear deal (where they received pallets of cash) was excellent!

Not only provided an exit strategy, also reset the relationship after months of escalating attacks on our troops, burning down our embassy, and the killing of American citizen.

Trump also made it quite clear that the U.S. will not allow Iran to have nuclear weapons.

Bonus, he removed from the earth a monster that killed 1,500 of his own people last month during anti-government protests. But go ahead and continue to mourn suleimanis loss.

The left’s caricature narrative of trump as an incompetent mad-man is just silly.

[zachateseverything]

Not only provided an exit strategy, also reset the relationship after months of escalating attacks on our troops, burning down our embassy, and the killing of American citizen.

Trump also made it quite clear that the U.S. will not allow Iran to have nuclear weapons.

Bonus, he removed from the earth a monster that killed 1,500 of his own people last month during anti-government protests. But go ahead and continue to mourn suleimanis loss.

The left’s caricature narrative of trump as an incompetent mad-man is just silly.

This is completely disingenuous.

[bking]

Two years ago Iran was party to the JCPOA, a negotiated multilateral agreement that prohibited them from developing nuclear weapons until 2030. They agreed to open their facilities to UN inspectors for - and indeed beyond - the duration of the agreement. By all credible accounts Iran was abiding by the terms of this treaty. In exchange for their compliance, Iran profited by having multiple economic sanctions lifted.

The Trump administration pulled out of this multinational agreement a year and a half ago. The next day Iran fired missiles at Israel. The next year Iran resumed enriching uranium.

If you really see these as "better results" please explain.

With due respect Davids, I never liked any kind of deal that provided a path to nuclear weapons for Iran. While I understand the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported Iran's general compliance with the terms of the Agreement, that document, or the terms of it, did not change the intentions of Iranian leadership. Everything I've read, and they are not bashful about their intentions (the leadership political or spiritual, not the Iranian people), tells me there is not room on this planet for them and Israel. The agreements did seem to me just making this someone else's problem--and I am way past tired of this tactic everywhere!
But then, I'm a rather self absorbed contractor with my own small world problems living in the relative safety of Las Vegas...and I mean that sincerely. I wish I knew, or even believed, that some set of smart people somewhere had the right answer.

[HorsCat]

Not only provided an exit strategy, also reset the relationship after months of escalating attacks on our troops, burning down our embassy, and the killing of American citizen.

Trump also made it quite clear that the U.S. will not allow Iran to have nuclear weapons.

Bonus, he removed from the earth a monster that killed 1,500 of his own people last month during anti-government protests. But go ahead and continue to mourn suleimanis loss.

The left’s caricature narrative of trump as an incompetent mad-man is just silly.

"These Media Posts will serve as notification to the United States Congress that should Iran strike any U.S. person or target, the United States will quickly & fully strike back, & perhaps in a disproportionate manner. Such legal notice is not required, but is given nevertheless!"
-- Donald J. Trump, 1/5/20

"Words sniffle mispronounce brag lie we good more sanctions words sniffle mispronounce brag lie." [me paraphrasing]
-- Donald J. Trump, 1/8/20, after Iran launched missiles at a US target


That's boss!

[HorsCat]

With due respect Davids, I never liked any kind of deal that provided a path to nuclear weapons for Iran. While I understand the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported Iran's general compliance with the terms of the Agreement, that document, or the terms of it, did not change the intentions of Iranian leadership. Everything I've read, and they are not bashful about their intentions (the leadership political or spiritual, not the Iranian people), tells me there is not room on this planet for them and Israel. The agreements did seem to me just making this someone else's problem--and I am way past tired of this tactic everywhere!
But then, I'm a rather self absorbed contractor with my own small world problems living in the relative safety of Las Vegas...and I mean that sincerely. I wish I knew, or even believed, that some set of smart people somewhere had the right answer.

It wasn't just the IAEA that certified Iranian compliance; the United States government, helmed by President Impeached, also certified Iranian compliance. The JCPOA didn't "provide a path to nuclear weapons for Iran." Granted, it was a deal for a finite period of time, during which the intent was to move the needle in a direction that, upon expiration, there would be incentives for Iran to continue not seeking to develop nuclear weapons. At the time it was being considered, the international sanctions regime against Iran was set to expire and countries like Russia, China and France wanted to trade with Iran. Fact is, the JCPOA is a complex, multilateral agreement that was a milestone when signed and just about the best deal that was possible. It is certainly better than no deal, and nonpartisan experts agreed it was working as designed. It was never intended to change Iran's intentions, to change its posture vis-a-vis Israel, to change Iran's sponsoring of terrorism, etc. Its sole purpose was to arrest Iranian development of a nuclear weapon which, by all professional accounts, it was doing. Now, Iran has restarted its nuclear weapons program. I guess that's "winning," Trump-style.

With Trump's unilateral, unjustified shredding of numerous international agreements (including the JCPOA), there is now no incentive for any nation to enter into agreements with the United States as long as Trump is its leader. The US under Trump simply cannot be trusted to keep its word; it has lost all credibility.

[King Of Dirk]

The left’s caricature narrative of trump as an incompetent mad-man is just silly.

Agree, but the right's caricatures of President Obama weren't real bright, either. I expected (or at least dared dream of) better from "my" side. Reaping/sowing and all that.

The left seems hell-bent on losing the most winnable election in recent memory come November, fresh off the heels of losing the second most winnable election in recent memory in 2016. There's a huge number of centrists, moderate republicans, and non-affiliated voters who would like a sensible alternative to Trump. To win in November, it's not about being smart or being right or being cute or being the biggest victim or finding new and exciting ways to be outraged - it's about changing minds and driving turnout. You can't change anyone's mind by insulting them (as several folks are about to prove after this post), and turnout isn't driven by increasing the noise in the signal/noise ratio to the point that the usually-disinterested-anyway simply tune out.

Republicans like Jon Huntsman and Democrats like Jeanne Shaheen or Evan Bayh dare suggest "their side" doesn't have all the answers to everything. Let me know next time one of them gets any airtime.

I almost never see any good faith in political arguments. Otherwise reasonable and intelligent people are quick to find fault with the "other side" but will steadfastly refuse to condemn behavior emanating from "their side." Bipartisanship has come to mean "yeah, you do it my way."

Our sample size is too small to be significant, but the membership on this site is comprised of an extremely thoughtful and well-informed bunch of people - and we can't seem to concede much to each other in terms of finding compromise on crucial issues. The last time I remember any good exchanges where people were wiling to give an inch was on the gun control/mass shooting thread several months ago. We have at least one interest in common. We are by some definition a community. We share some hopes and goals. If we can't speak to each other without the snide, shitty and contemptuous tones, what chance do Joe and Jane Public really have?

[Scott G.]

Not only provided an exit strategy, also reset the relationship after months of escalating attacks on our troops, burning down our embassy, and the killing of American citizen. [snip]

The Iranians followed DJTs Syrian Cruise missile attack model, the Iranian warned the Iraqis, the Iraqis warned the US, a few hangers & airplanes
blown up. Honor is served. DJT runs adverts on Facebook, Iran finds out their missiles really do work. The Russians noticed the US doesn't
have air defences or GPS jamming at the airbases. Everyone declares victory.
NB (that the US turned off the GPS jamming to make sure Iranians didn't miss and hurt someone is RT rumor mongering)

[colker]

But go ahead and continue to mourn suleimanis loss.

The left’s caricature narrative of trump as an incompetent mad-man is just silly.

I didn´t see anyone mourn Suleimani´s loss in 7 pages of this thread and neither in the NYT just to cite the major anti Trump liberal media outlet. Woudl you mind pointing any post mourning that loss?
What everybody said is: we are less safe due to the sheer stupidity of that strike. I didn´t use the word "incompetence" because Trump is competent at being stupid w/ his policies and that´s his style/schtyck: be stupid because some (voters) are tired of knowledge/ information/ responsability/ greater good of mankind.. to them voters it´s all "leftist elitist values" from corrupt hollywood types.

[Dallas Tex]

The Iranians followed DJTs Syrian Cruise missile attack model, the Iranian warned the Iraqis, the Iraqis warned the US, a few hangers & airplanes
blown up. Honor is served. DJT runs adverts on Facebook, Iran finds out their missiles really do work. The Russians noticed the US doesn't
have air defences or GPS jamming at the airbases. Everyone declares victory.
NB (that the US turned off the GPS jamming to make sure Iranians didn't miss and hurt someone is RT rumor mongering)

I would find it very, very difficult to believe that anyone would think that it didn't go something like that.

[ericpmoss]

Imagine ANY of this happening over here. Say some bully superpower half a world away invades Mexico for their agave, installs a puppet government, kills hundreds of thousands and sets up military bases, telling us in no uncertain terms to "behave, or else". This bully nation overthrew our elected leader in the 50s and installed a vicious dictator, which we then overthrew. Sadly, the bible-thumpers in our country took over and established Christian sharia, but that's OUR issue to work out.

Now imagine one of our top generals goes to Mexico City to deliver our response to a peace overture from one of the bully's allies in the region that keeps threatening us. And.... the bully nation assassinates our general. How would we behave?

Americans are shit at empathy. We have no right to be there. That oil is their oil, not ours. That land is their land, not ours. Come to think of it, if our greedy executive class weren't in charge of policy, maybe we'd have weaned ourselves off of fossil fuels, and none of this would have happened. No trillion$ blown making more enemies. Instead all we get is "how ya gonna pay for that?" aimed at ANYTHING to build up our people.

[jclay]

Imagine ANY of this happening over here. Say some bully superpower half a world away invades Mexico for their agave, installs a puppet government, kills hundreds of thousands and sets up military bases, telling us in no uncertain terms to "behave, or else". This bully nation overthrew our elected leader in the 50s and installed a vicious dictator, which we then overthrew. Sadly, the bible-thumpers in our country took over and established Christian sharia, but that's OUR issue to work out.

Now imagine one of our top generals goes to Mexico City to deliver our response to a peace overture from one of the bully's allies in the region that keeps threatening us. And.... the bully nation assassinates our general. How would we behave?

Americans are shit at empathy. We have no right to be there. That oil is their oil, not ours. That land is their land, not ours. Come to think of it, if our greedy executive class weren't in charge of policy, maybe we'd have weaned ourselves off of fossil fuels, and none of this would have happened. No trillion$ blown making more enemies. Instead all we get is "how ya gonna pay for that?" aimed at ANYTHING to build up our people.

Bing-Fucking-Go!

I keep hearing journalists ask softball questions and there's just this assumption, it's not even that, it's just pre-ordained and unspoken, etherial, that we have the right to be there. And any time the "who killed whom first" comes up, the analyses never starts beyond 1979, and it's always they killed one of ours first. It's just mind bending. If any country did to us and our part of the world, what we have been doing to others for decades we'd go absolutely bat shit crazy. Nobody here would be asking if it was justified to blow the aggressor's military off of the map. In the past few decades nobody has caused or been part and parcel to more deaths of civilians over there than we have. So who's the terrorist, or at a minimum one of the terrorists?

And then Trump comes in with his happy cabal, rips up the JCPOA.....and what he's done makes things better?? We've now got a better way towards a long term non-nuclear Iran. Its fucking insanity. Thankfully the Iranians appear to have been able to save domestic and regional face without forcing Trump to lose his and start all out war. Anybody here who thinks that what the USA has been doing in terms of post WWII foreign policy really needs to read Chalmers Johnson's works; hell, just skim'em. If we can't look at what's going on from the perspective of the "other guy", and adjust accordingly then we're all fucked; it's just a question of when. We think we wear the white hats; I'm here to tell you that's bullshit. It's hegemony, plain and simple, and one day there's going to be hell to pay.

[marley]

Bing-Fucking-Go!
It's hegemony, plain and simple, and one day there's going to be hell to pay.

We have been paying all along, but just the minimum payment like most dumb ass Americans with credit card debt.

[davids]

With due respect Davids, I never liked any kind of deal that provided a path to nuclear weapons for Iran. While I understand the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported Iran's general compliance with the terms of the Agreement, that document, or the terms of it, did not change the intentions of Iranian leadership. Everything I've read, and they are not bashful about their intentions (the leadership political or spiritual, not the Iranian people), tells me there is not room on this planet for them and Israel. The agreements did seem to me just making this someone else's problem--and I am way past tired of this tactic everywhere!
But then, I'm a rather self absorbed contractor with my own small world problems living in the relative safety of Las Vegas...and I mean that sincerely. I wish I knew, or even believed, that some set of smart people somewhere had the right answer.

JCPOA is a perfect example of an imperfect real-world negotiated agreement in which both sides got something they really wanted, but neither side got everything they wanted.

So, what HorsCat said.

The Trump administration broke it because it wasn't perfect. What has followed has been an unmitigated disaster for peace in the Mideast, and has brought loss upon loss to the United States.

The only real winner is Russia, who's seeing their influence grow with their clients Iran and Syria.

And I'm still waiting for the administration's defenders to explain how this is "better".