Covid19

[funcrusher]

Even at the average flu infection rate of 10% of the us population (approx 30 million cases annually)
1-3 million deaths from C-19 would be an off the charts tragedy level event.

It's clear that we don't want even 10% of the population to get it.

-g

ANY number of deaths is a tragedy, but let's use the right numbers if we're going to discuss

my parrents are old and they live in seattle...

[gt6267a]

a question about the numbers ... for every known infection, there are how many undiagnosed infections? for every death, there are how many deaths attributed to other causes? presumably both questions are off from reality by different percentages. presumably these discrepancies are further off early in an outbreak than later. wondering what epidemiologists use for assumptions or how they take these kinds of unknowns into calculations and recommendations?

[Wisco]

a question about the numbers ... for every known infection, there are how many undiagnosed infections? for every death, there are how many deaths attributed to other causes? presumably both questions are off from reality by different percentages. presumably these discrepancies are further off early in an outbreak than later. wondering what epidemiologists use for assumptions or how they take these kinds of unknowns into calculations and recommendations?

The number of undiagnosed cases is massive in the US because there is no comprehensive screening going on for suspected cases, only people who meet certain profiles and are symptomatic. That said as of this past Saturday the FDA finally has green-lighted US High Complexity CLIA Labs (the better hospital and reference labs) to develop, validate and offer COVID testing to any specimen they receive. Big University hospitals, the Mayo Clinic Labs and LabCorp will all get on the bandwagon soon.

So, we'll finally have a better assessment of the infection and death rate numbers... after watching politicians drop then chins in horror when the infected number of Americans goes from 50 to 5000 in less than a week, simply because more people were tested.

[davids]

WTF, we're freaking out over a heavy-duty cold bug but we continue to excuse and ignore the (mostly) gasoline powered killer of 40K Americans per year? How stupid and easily panicked are we as a culture and a nation?

Jeeze, and I was going to make some jokes about how with everyone hiding in their cellars cycling would be a lot safer...

"We" aren't ignoring automotive safety. Here's a fascinating article from last fall about how much safer our vehicles are for their occupants. And as far as distracted driving, my state just banned holding a smart phone while driving.

So let's get back to doing two or more things at once and mitigating Covid19 worldwide.

[Too Tall]

For the infectious disease mavens. I'm assuming part of the avoid getting COVID19 strategy is partly lowering pressures on public health. The more potent strategy is to increase the number of people with acquired immunity (that's kinda like saying "sanitation engineer") thus providing herd immunity to the rest of the world. n'est-ce pas?

[vertical_doug]

For the infectious disease mavens. I'm assuming part of the avoid getting COVID19 strategy is partly lowering pressures on public health. The more potent strategy is to increase the number of people with acquired immunity (that's kinda like saying "sanitation engineer") thus providing herd immunity to the rest of the world. n'est-ce pas?

I think the fault in your logic is related to the novel part. Whether anyone has immunity is questionable, so the number of people needing to be infected to get 'herd immunity' is incredibly high. Even with a 1% mortality rate, the number of deaths would be terrible. The Chinese showed the viable strategy which is to starve the virus of new hosts. I think people really under appreciate how effective stage two of the hubei lockdown was - only one person allowed out of the house every other day to purchase essentials. (these people covered in masks and much more.) Even if you look at Daegu Korea, they essentially followed the Chinese model. I am not sure Europe and the US will be able to implement such a quarantine. I think the numbers of infected outside of China will surpass the total Chinese numbers in 2 weeks.

[j44ke]

As far as I understand it, no one has acquired immunity for the flu. That's why there are annual vaccines. If this particular corona virus is similar to the flu, I suspect everyone will need to think about getting one of those on an annual basis too.

Whatever happened to the other scary bugs that came out of China over the past decade or so? Are they still hanging around or did they somehow vaporize?

One thing would be nice - maybe China will get serious about cleaning up or getting rid of the animal markets. The things people will put in their mouths. Put that pangolin down, you don't know what pathogen it will spread around the world. And wash your hands.

[houston]

Way OT (and a little vague), but for the brands that matter in my world, yes.

I am bummed about Baselworld too. Glad to hear that you were planning on attending Matt! That's a bucket list item for me.

On a related note, my industry's trade shows have been postponed and I am seeing meetings cancelled now. I had several customers coming to our manufacturing facility in two weeks and they all cancelled due to company policy. That seems extreme to me.

[cny rider]

Influenza virus circulates in different flavors each year.
Usually there's a minor shift in the virus from prior years. Sometimes there's a big shift in the virus and those are the dangerous ones.
You need a "flu" vaccine each year because the virus keeps changing.
One of the big problems with current flu vaccines is they take a very long time to manufacture. It means considerable guess work goes into choosing the vaccines protein targets. We currently don't have the luxury of waiting for fall, and seeing what's actually circulating and then rapidly making targeted vaccines.

Nobody knows yet what this corona virus will look like in a year.

[Too Tall]

My ignorance is many fold including not being clear(er). What I meant was that if many people get CORVID19, do not die, recover and now have acquired immunity they are a effective human shield to those who have not become exposed or vaccinated...different than natural immunity.

Again, perhaps I'm not thinking clearly? If the virus becomes nearly ubiquitous as are many corona viruses than nearly everyone will at some point become exposed UNLESS....there are so few hot hosts it does "go away" and/or we are vaccinated....or it mutates.

I'm curious what happens after the massive China lockdown. Does the infection rate spike or what (see above)?

[Matthew Strongin]

I am bummed about Baselworld too. Glad to hear that you were planning on attending Matt! That's a bucket list item for me.

It's wild. I wasn't prepared the first time I went. People told me the scale of the "booths" would be nuts...but I still wasn't prepared. In my day job industry, a trade show booth is a 6x6 patch with a pop up display and sign from Kinkos. The "booths" at the main hall at Baselworld are like self-contained office buildings.

[houston]

It's wild. I wasn't prepared the first time I went. People told me the scale of the "booths" would be nuts...but I still wasn't prepared. In my day job industry, a trade show booth is a 6x6 patch with a pop up display and sign from Kinkos. The "booths" at the main hall at Baselworld are like self-contained office buildings.

My company has a booth at a show in Hamburg like that. It is a 2 story "townhouse" and it is worth every penny, according to our marketing team.

I was excited to see if Tudor would do something bold this year. The Black Bay franchise is a bit stale. Some pastel blue or ceramic would shake things up a bit...

[vertical_doug]

My ignorance is many fold including not being clear(er). What I meant was that if many people get CORVID19, do not die, recover and now have acquired immunity they are a effective human shield to those who have not become exposed or vaccinated...different than natural immunity.

Again, perhaps I'm not thinking clearly? If the virus becomes nearly ubiquitous as are many corona viruses than nearly everyone will at some point become exposed UNLESS....there are so few hot hosts it does "go away" and/or we are vaccinated....or it mutates.

I'm curious what happens after the massive China lockdown. Does the infection rate spike or what (see above)?

We won't know until we get there. But the response from the get go on this has been to develop a vaccine ASAP, so maybe the WHO/CDC actions are telling us something. Normally, it is better to watch what people do, not what they say.

Since the virus has already jump species once, and now appears to have jump again to a dog, maybe it has better ability to do this. The issue then is you'd always have a pool of the virus around in some animal ready to make the zoonotic jump back. This may be why China was rumored to be wiping out the strays in the cities.

On a side note, some people reference the Spanish Flu and how the trenches maybe made it worse. Well, we don't have men in the trenches , but we have more huddle masses in refugees camps.

[sk_tle]

I was contemplating going to Mexico at the end of the month for 10 days but I fear getting stuck outside of my home country if at some points the airlines are shutdown totally. I have a friend who was supposed to fly to Tel Aviv but is stuck at Madrid atm. The good thing is since Mexico has way less cases than spain they may close the ingress but not the egress if they choose to.

[vertical_doug]

If you take a look at London and New York both of which are suffering from cases, and both of which have heavily used dirty subways. Both cities have approximately 8.5mm people, and about 26,000 beds. Although most people only have mild cases, enough (16% china) have serious cases, you can see how quickly a spread in c19 can overflow capacity.

[j44ke]

I’ve been riding the subways this week. I still get a twinge when I reach for the handrail/pole that is so beautifully polished from the quad-billion hands that preceded mine. I am washing my hands frequently enough that my skin is cracking in spots even with heavy application of hand cream. No Purel anywhere but not sure if I would use it. Occasional gargle with Listerine before bed - my mother’s recipe for avoiding sore throat. The guy last night who delivered our sushi looked like he was going to cry when I said “Stay healthy ok?” One of the most dangerous jobs now along with taxi driver. I feel strangely calm. Sort of like waiting for that phone call in the middle of the night that you know is going to come just not when. And yes I do switch train cars when I get on and find someone sleeping on the floor among their worldly possessions. And I’ve noticed that no one under the age of 25 covers their mouth when they cough. Too many young people smoke.

[j44ke]

So just looking at some numbers coming from the NYTimes - 22 confirmed cases in NY (18 of which are associated with the lawyer in Westchester) but 2770 people are in home isolation. That suggests to me that testing (i.e. confirmation) is running way too slowly. Or no one is getting tested until they start showing signs of acute infection - restricted breathing or gastrointestinal distress.

[Chik]

Bespoked UK just announced postponing the show to October.

[MarkC]

Somethings maybe interesting (and forgive as didnt read entire thread):

This bug has a very long persistence on solid surfaces. Up to 9 days. So if out and about wash those hands frequently and don't touch your face.

Not confirmed but reactivation might be an issue. That could get interesting. Waiting to see more reports on that aspect of Covid19

I'm avoiding big crowds and hoping the local mtn bike trails are not contaminated.

[WFSTEKL]

Beginning this week and for the next several, millions of college students will embark on their spring break trips. Some will travel home, others will fill resorts domestically and internationally. In about a month's time, the dialogue on college campuses across the states will have a different tenor.