Covid19

[Colinmclelland]

Nothing concentrates humans' attention like the fear of impending death. That's why Global Warming isn't taken seriously in some quarters - it isn't an immediate threat. Folks are only too happy to pass the problem on to their grandchildren.

First Dog again...
Coronavirus diaries: everyone is frightened and it's getting weird now | First Dog on the Moon | Opinion | The Guardian

[Chik]

Belgium is being locked down in 3 hours, and I am seeing a clip of a beach in Clearwater, FL packed with people.

It’s Corona time right now.

[vertical_doug]

The old market adage is 'Markets stop panicking when Governments start panicking'

Governments in Europe (except UK) and US are definitely starting to panic. This is a good thing. The 'Go Big' stimulus package is definitely a sign of panic. Also, realizing a payroll tax cut, doesn't help people with no payroll, and just mailing out checks is a good decision. It follows the old Krugman quote of dropping money out of a helicopter.

Although cases continue to climb in Italy, it looks like the growth rate is slowing. Italy should be under control before Easter.

Germany and Spain, on the other hand, look to be on the way to becoming as bad or worse than Italy on infections. Germany looks to be avoiding the deaths which is good, I don't know if Spain will be so lucky.

It's a jump ball in the US. The next 15 days if people cooperate, you could still end up of like Korea. Unfortunately, the risk in that case is Trump will quickly declare victory and get complacent. I thought Trump was better in the first half of yesterday's task force news conference. The problem was so did he. As soon as he felt comfortable and thought it was going well he veered off script and became Trump the entertainer. He really just needs to delegate to Fauci and Co letting them run the show.

All in all, I'm optimistic here. (I am usually very dark by nature)

(I agree with Lionel on UK. I little more urgency from BoJo here would be nice. They know they need to focus on the capacity constraint at NHS, not sure if present action will get the result they want.)

[Chik]

Some encouraging development.

China Endorses Avigan / Favipiravir For COVID-19 Disease Treatment

Avigan Favipiravir (T-705) is a broad-spectrum inhibitor of viral RNA polymerase

[cny rider]

The old market adage is 'Markets stop panicking when Governments start panicking'

Governments in Europe (except UK) and US are definitely starting to panic. This is a good thing. The 'Go Big' stimulus package is definitely a sign of panic. Also, realizing a payroll tax cut, doesn't help people with no payroll, and just mailing out checks is a good decision. It follows the old Krugman quote of dropping money out of a helicopter.

Although cases continue to climb in Italy, it looks like the growth rate is slowing. Italy should be under control before Easter.

Germany and Spain, on the other hand, look to be on the way to becoming as bad or worse than Italy on infections. Germany looks to be avoiding the deaths which is good, I don't know if Spain will be so lucky.

It's a jump ball in the US. The next 15 days if people cooperate, you could still end up of like Korea. Unfortunately, the risk in that case is Trump will quickly declare victory and get complacent. I thought Trump was better in the first half of yesterday's task force news conference. The problem was so did he. As soon as he felt comfortable and thought it was going well he veered off script and became Trump the entertainer. He really just needs to delegate to Fauci and Co letting them run the show.

All in all, I'm optimistic here. (I am usually very dark by nature)

(I agree with Lionel on UK. I little more urgency from BoJo here would be nice. They know they need to focus on the capacity constraint at NHS, not sure if present action will get the result they want.)

I like your optimism but not sure I can share it yet.
The US is woefully, inexcusably behind on testing.
Our health system is getting results in 4 days after swabs are taken.
We have no idea what the true numbers are in this country.
It could be very ugly by next week as results start flowing in.

[sk_tle]

Belgium is being locked down in 3 hours, and I am seeing a clip of a beach in Clearwater, FL packed with people.

It’s Corona time right now.

governments and people don't seem to understand we should all lock us down and close our borders worldwie at the very same time. Both from an health and an economic point of view.

My current gf is a medic in Mexico and showed me that table. Yet they are still minimizing and waiting before taking the most drastic measures.



We could have made the same one between italy and spain a few weeks ago. We are just losing time by not accepting the fact the whole world has to lock itself NOW. Just look at the graphs in Coronavirus Update (Live): 22,277 Cases and 8,12 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

[vertical_doug]

I like your optimism but not sure I can share it yet.
The US is woefully, inexcusably behind on testing.
Our health system is getting results in 4 days after swabs are taken.
We have no idea what the true numbers are in this country.
It could be very ugly by next week as results start flowing in.

Testing is important, but it only gives confirmation. what is really needed is change in behavior. People are beginning to get the message. Japan, Korea, China, HK , Singapore had an advantage having experience with SARS. They immediately changed behavior.

I remember Toronto having SARS cases, so I expect the resident's of Toronto to react better.

People like Devin Nunes, Rush Limbaugh and others who have been sending the wrong message, need to stop.

[jclay]

I keep seeing people (in news photos) with their particulate filter masks incorrectly positioned, often with their nostrils exposed! Essential version:
* It should cover your mouth and nose.
* Pinch the aluminum strip to conform to the contour of the upper portion of your nose.

Here is a video of how to get it right:



From The Guardian, ya gotta have your priorities straight:

News of the lockdown also motivated the more recreationally-minded, particularly those looking to stock up on staples such as pot and video games to pass the time during self-isolation.

The line at Oakland’s Blum, a medical and recreational marijuana dispensary, pushed out the door. By 2pm, the store’s supply of marijuana edibles had been cleaned out.

“It’s been nuts,” said a Blum budtender. “I had to keep people from coming in at one point because the line was so crammed together.” He said Blum will stay open, but will reduce staff to a skeleton crew – only enough to serve patients with a medical card for marijuana.

[Chik]

It seems we started washing hands only recently. And not very frequently.

Keep it clean: The surprising 130-year history of handwashing

[jclay]

From the blog of the Stigler Center at the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business

Why Mass Testing Is Crucial: the US Should Study the Veneto Model to Fight Covid-19 -

Basically:
1) The USA needs to ramp up testing by several orders of magnitude and beyond those with symptoms (which shouldn't be news to anybody at this point) and,
2) if our private market can't manage it (as it hasn't) then we should be rethinking the basics of our "system".

[sk_tle]

I think USA should just consider everybody as possibly infected. Reports show that you can be test 4 times out of 5 as negative while still carrying the virus. Being tested negative doesn't mean your clean. It only means we cannot be conclusive about it.

[vertical_doug]

I think USA should just consider everybody as possibly infected. Reports show that you can be test 4 times out of 5 as negative while still carrying the virus. Being tested negative doesn't mean your clean. It only means we cannot be conclusive about it.

That is something the CDC has discussed publicly, the accuracy of testing. They think the newer test kits are better than previous ones. The virus is not some super hard to detect bug, they just haven't dialed it in yet.

It's funny. I thought I was one of the more bearish people on these threads at the beginning. Now everyone else is more bearish, and I am the optimist.

[j44ke]

What is the deal with the refusal of the CDC to accept the WHO test? I recall reading that a relatively large number were offered initially but refused.

[claritycycler]

What is the deal with the refusal of the CDC to accept the WHO test? I recall reading that a relatively large number were offered initially but refused.

A woman dr on the crowded trump televised press stand stated(2 days ago) the offer, for the US to purchase tests, was refused because the WHO tests were not accurate enough, or not tested enough, to be used. Immediately following that press conference an epidemiologist on MSNBC stated that was a straight up lie, WHO was selling the tests to the US because most all of their tests were given without cost to undeveloped countries, and that the CDC tests originally issued were the ones that failed to use adequate quality control/testing before issue. This is what I remember, I don't know the accuracy of either statement, but given the trump administration's failure to provide accurate information I tend to go with the latter.

stay well, do all you can as individuals/families to help,

Brian

[vertical_doug]

A woman dr on the crowded trump televised press stand stated(2 days ago) the offer, for the US to purchase tests, was refused because the WHO tests were not accurate enough, or not tested enough, to be used. Immediately following that press conference an epidemiologist on MSNBC stated that was a straight up lie, WHO was selling the tests to the US because most all of their tests were given without cost to undeveloped countries, and that the CDC tests originally issued were the ones that failed to use adequate quality control/testing before issue. This is what I remember, I don't know the accuracy of either statement, but given the trump administration's failure to provide accurate information I tend to go with the latter.

stay well, do all you can as individuals/families to help,

Brian

I think the issue was on some earlier RT-PCR tests. I don't know if these were from WHO or CDC.

[Tom]

One RNA scientist in the family was critical of the CDC test's genetic sequencing techniques. I clearly don't understand the science but it had to do with accepting certain protein sequences at the beginning of segments and something called 'hairpins' both of which would cause unclean results. They were of the opinion that this was really basic technique that was flawed and the reason was that the CDC was directed to do as they were doing for reasons other than science.

[mnoble485]

I’m sitting on the front porch of our 1925 bungalow in central Florida wondering what to do next. I will be 71 in April and although in good health I’m on the wrong side of the bell curve for Covid19. My wife, 65 has had pneumonia and or bronchitis 2 years in a row! Not sure where this was going but sometimes I have to say WTF.

Mike

PS. Don’t even ask me about my401K

[Too Tall]

I’m sitting on the front porch of our 1925 bungalow in central Florida wondering what to do next. I will be 71 in April and although in good health I’m on the wrong side of the bell curve for Covid19. My wife, 65 has had pneumonia and or bronchitis 2 years in a row! Not sure where this was going but sometimes I have to say WTF.

Mike

PS. Don’t even ask me about my401K

Hold-Fast-Tattoo-knuckles-vintage.jpg

[Saab2000]

PS. Don’t even ask me about my401K

Avoid touching your retirement savings at this time if at all possible. Other than the legally required RMD I would sit tight on that thing.

[King Of Dirk]

this was really basic technique that was flawed and the reason was that the CDC was directed to do as they were doing for reasons other than science.

That's the most frightening thing I've read this week. Let that sink in for a minute.