Virus thread, the political one.

[Corso]

An earnest question from a non-US national living outside of the US (but very concerned with what's happening in the US for all sorts of reasons): Why has 45's approval rating (in the US) improved after the outbreak?

I'm certain there is no singular reason, but, really, where to start?

Because unlike the majority of Solonistas who post here, a very large portion of the country actually like the guy, are loyal to his party, and think he's done a good job with employment and the economy. Remember, he was ELECTED President. And I expect that to happen again.

If you base your opinion of the popular opinion here-on this site, Hillary would have won, and Elizabeth Warren would still be a candidate.

But that's not reality.

If Trump is half as bad as "people" think, he should lose to anyone else, even Biden. Let's see what happens.

And yes, HorsCat, Americans are stupid and gullible. Look at popular culture: I can't get real news without a Kardashian or some pop singer being mentioned. Is it any wonder that a reality TV star got elected?

We live in a pretty F@#D up time. Little surprises me anymore.

[theflashunc]

Because unlike the majority of Solonistas who post here, a very large portion of the country actually like the guy, are loyal to his party, and think he's done a good job with employment and the economy. Remember, he was ELECTED President. And I expect that to happen again.

If you base your opinion of the popular opinion here-on this site, Hillary would have won, and Elizabeth Warren would still be a candidate.

But that's not reality.

If Trump is half as bad as "people" think, he should lose to anyone else, even Biden. Let's see what happens.

And yes, HorsCat, Americans are stupid and gullible. Look at popular culture: I can't get real news without a Kardashian or some pop singer being mentioned. Is it any wonder that a reality TV star got elected?

We live in a pretty F@#D up time. Little surprises me anymore.

Such a large portion of the country love him he's currently at his highest approval rating of his entire presidency -- at 49%. He's so popular among large swaths of the country 2.5 million more Americans voted for the other candidate in the last election.

The only thing he could hang his hat on was the economy, and that's evaporated with a stunningly incompetent (but not unpredictable) response to the crisis.

He's seeing the usual bounce everyone gives a President in a crisis, but that'll fade in a couple weeks when the full breadth of the lack of federal response over the last month starts to become apparent.

What's keeping the response high? Turning the daily briefing into a campaign rally filled with more lies and half truths, and a right wing echo chamber in full tilt around this because, again, without the economy this first term has no signature accomplishments. Except for corruption, wanton self-dealing and every effort made to destroy America's standing in the world. But you can't run on those.

[King Of Dirk]

without the economy this first term has no signature accomplishments.

This is true. His only possible hope is to get people to buy into something along the lines of "I did it once, I can do it again" with regard to the DJIA/unemployment etc pre-virus.

You and I both know "he" didn't do it the first time, but I've quit underestimating his ability to convince lots of people he did.

[Mark Walberg]

........calculated risk...............

Nahhh

[Mark Walberg]

....He's seeing the usual bounce everyone gives a President in a crisis, but that'll fade in a couple weeks when the full breadth of the lack of federal response over the last month starts to become apparent. .....

Unfortunately, apparent to some is not even visible to others. And there does not seem to be any way to help them see the light.

[BBB]

Because unlike the majority of Solonistas who post here, a very large portion of the country actually like the guy, are loyal to his party, and think he's done a good job with employment and the economy. Remember, he was ELECTED President. And I expect that to happen again.

The ones who like Trump...they wouldn't be people like these would they?

[Toddykins]

I too find it disheartening that his approval rating has drifted up. However, more than anything this shows how hard the partisan divide has become. As per 538s average, we are close to the recent highs but overall, over the course of Trump's entire presidency this has fluctuated within a narrow range. If there has been a rally around the flag effect, it has been very small.

[Mark Walberg]

There are three ways to slow the spread of the corona virus.
acting early (missed that one), extensive testing (yes, missed that one, too), and contact tracing (don't have enough capacity for tests), and physical distancing

Well, there is physical distancing, then.

Maybe we should do it.

[Mark Walberg]

The ones who like Trump...they wouldn't be people like these would they?

This is appalling.
I heard on the radio today that almost no Americans can name ONE scientist !
OMG

[Mark Walberg]

Sorry, Last one for tonight:

New York running out of morgue space.

[Mark Walberg]

I'm sorry,
One more tonight.
In case all of you health care workers aren't already scared shitless about this horrible virus,
now we have the next wave of our own extremists to worry about:

Timothy Wilson Planned to Bomb Hospital During COVID-19 Crisis: FBI | Heavy.com

[Colinmclelland]

The ones who like Trump...they wouldn't be people like these would they?

It's appalling but it gives credence the the quote i used to hear a lot when the A$ was above parity and the US kept talking about its Strong Dollar policy while simultaneously cutting interest rates and printing money..."more people in America vote than have passports". So politically they could care less how low the US$ gets.

[Toddykins]

Bit of tangent - But ‘strong dollar policy’ is not really a reference to the level of the exchange rate, it references faith in the dollar as a store of value. While there has been some softening around the edges in terms of demand for USD for sovereign reserves portfolios, even when USD was trading significantly weaker there is no real evidence that there has been a loss of faith. I didn’t expect to play out this way when Trump was elected, but this has been especially true in recent years. International investors have been shifting their portfolios in favor of higher beta US assets.

In the current context, when USD weakness is not destabilizing for domestic asset markets and inflation is a distant concern, The US shoukd generally want currency depreciation so as to provide an economic boost. Further USD weakness has generally been associated with better states of the world and amid the pandemic, a reversal of recent strength might go some ways to stabilizing financial markets, even if this does not address the underlying shortage of USD funding that looks to ha e contributed to recent strength.

In addition, currency policy is not the responsibility of the Fed, even as we know they have been weighting international and financial developments more heavily over time. The ‘strong dollar policy’ originates with the Treasury.

In short, its not so simple as ‘dumb americans couldnt care less about usd’

[ides1056]

This is appalling.
I heard on the radio today that almost no Americans can name ONE scientist !
OMG

And 40% can't come up with 1000$.

Well, help is coming for them.

It's strange, having grown up in California with the specter of THE BIG ONE looming, to now watch it hurdling toward us, neither sudden nor out of nowhere.

A friend relayed Goldman, Sachs take on the "crisis" entitled "Light at the End of the Tunnel." That light is a freight train heading our way, and they are trying to figure how to profit.

Singing "Nearer my God to Thee" would be more apt.

[Colinmclelland]

Bit of tangent - But ‘strong dollar policy’ is not really a reference to the level of the exchange rate, it references faith in the dollar as a store of value. While there has been some softening around the edges in terms of demand for USD for sovereign reserves portfolios, even when USD was trading significantly weaker there is no real evidence that there has been a loss of faith. I didn’t expect to play out this way when Trump was elected, but this has been especially true in recent years. International investors have been shifting their portfolios in favor of higher beta US assets...

Apologies for continuing a tangent. I agree. But you don't re-enforce faith in the dollar as a store of value by just printing more of the buggers.

And, if the US is going to keep living off debt, it needs people/countries that want to buy it. Which means they need people to want US dollars. Let's see...the interest rate is zero so i get nothing in the way of income. They haven't defaulted yet, so I should get my money back. Will I want it in ten years...not sure. Personally I'd buy gold before US$. Russia has done just that. Moved from US$ reserves to gold reserves. Get a few more countries doing that and "Houston, we have a problem"

Which could be accelerated now the entire world is turning on the money printing presses. It's not just the US debasing paper currencies.

[Mark Walberg]

....."Light at the End of the Tunnel." That light is a freight train heading our way,,,,

Wow, what an image. This needs to be used in future analogies.

Unfortunately, I am worried about dying with the pink foam.
I hope I'm wrong.

[Toddykins]

I promise I will stop after this, but - Russia’s shift in reserves was geopolitically motivated. If you look at reserves holdings from a high level using the IMF’s COFER data what should immediately jump out is that shifts happen tectonically. In part this is because it is simply not realistic to rapidly shift out of USD holdings. Certainly it would be hard for major
Reserves holders to sell the stock of their holdings and even as diversification has picked up a bit it has taken two decades to reduce USD holdings by less than 10pct. To generalise, China and others are not prepared to completely abandon their exchange rate policies so if they sell USD it increases broad pressure on the dollar and they are forced to buy more
To avert upward pressure on their exchange rates. Its self defeating, even leaving aside the fact that the US may well be better positioned to weather a rise in interest rates associated with reduced demand for treasuries better than a lot of
Countries would weather sharp, rapid exchange rate strength. The next problem is that there are not better alternatives, particularly when you fave the investment constraints of a reserve manager.

I dont think paper money is dead, more than happy to sell you some bitcoin. Gold has behaved a bit wonky because people have had to reduce risk and cut ‘good’ positions to fund the ‘bad’, but we are mostly seeing what we usually see during a crisis. USD is among the very few tier 1 safe-havens.

[Colinmclelland]

I also promise there will be no more, and on topic, it would be nice if there was a long term that these issues could play out in.

I dont think paper money is dead, more than happy to sell you some bitcoin.

No thanks on the Bitcoin. The whole crypto currency industry will cease to exist once my wife takes over. Bitcoin is a pointless environmental disaster that empowers criminal transactions is my view.

Gold has behaved a bit wonky because people have had to reduce risk and cut ‘good’ positions to fund the ‘bad’, but we are mostly seeing what we usually see during a crisis.

In a crisis people don't sell what they want to, they sell what they can. There is always a buyer for gold.

USD is among the very few tier 1 safe-havens.

Yep, but there seems to be an assumption that can't change. Debt levels near WWII levels. Structural deficit? Quantitive easing? Let's have another look in a decade.

Sorry all, back to the virus...

[Chik]

The ones who like Trump...they wouldn't be people like these would they?

wow

[vertical_doug]

Curious why you think this. I don't consume much TV news, but I have occasionally watched Rachel over the years and found her stories to be relatively in-depth and informative. Sure, liberal, but why a dope? Not a challenge, just a question.

Although I agree with her on most issues, she tends to overplay and go sensationalist. If 99% of her story is right, but she exaggerates the last 1%, the right seizes the 1%. It happens over and over again. That is the dope in her.

She is playing checkers