Caroline Kennedy --- 2020

[vertical_doug]

Well, there's a recently declassified photo on a hangar wall of a pair of Russian MiGs in NATO airspace taken from some F-15 that just *happened* to be in Romania for "training" last fall, which then escorted the MiGs home.

So I guess it depends on what exactly you think "the enemy" means...

The US was in Romania last year for joint training exercises called Dacian Eagle. The Mig-21s are part of the Romanian air force. Are you sure the photo isn't from this military exercise and the Migs flying Romania colors of Red, Yellow , Blue bullseye on the tail?

[vertical_doug]

Donald Trump is creating a field day for the one per cent

This is an interesting article from the FT on Trump.

[Dallas Tex]

Donald Trump is creating a field day for the one per cent

This is an interesting article from the FT on Trump.

Just curious, would you consider this factual reporting or an opinion piece ?

[vertical_doug]

Just curious, would you consider this factual reporting or an opinion piece ?

It's from the opinion page.

This is a December 11 Big Read from the FT, written by the same Journalist :

Subscribe to read

[colker]

Just curious, would you consider this factual reporting or an opinion piece ?

The article is trying to find trends in economy based on WH decisions to deregulate. These articles are taken seriously by investors: they need it to discuss businees. The summary of deregulations described in the article seems factual. What do you see as non factual on that piece?

[vertical_doug]

The article is trying to find trends in economy based on WH decisions to deregulate. These articles are taken seriously by investors: they need it to discuss businees. The summary of deregulations described in the article seems factual. What do you see as non factual on that piece?

Colker, to be fair, it is an opinion piece. The results of Trump decisions will not known until sometime in the future, so the author is forecasting which is an opinion.

I find it ironic that Trump does use the rise in the equity market as a barometer of his success. If we take a step back, the 'investor market' is often blamed as being short term orientated at the expense of longer term gains. The rise in the equity market is forecasting the rise in corporate profits, but it does not say anything for the future prospects of American Workers. Since worker wage increases are a big component of future inflation, the bond market is now rallying and the inflation fear seems to be fading into the past.

Taking the bond market and equity market together, the markets seem to be forecasting a increase in corporate profits without wage gains. Since the largest portion of corporate profits now accrue to the capital holder, then the 1% will indeed win again.

(This is an opinion, but a reasoned one)

[Dallas Tex]

The article is trying to find trends in economy based on WH decisions to deregulate. These articles are taken seriously by investors: they need it to discuss businees. The summary of deregulations described in the article seems factual. What do you see as non factual on that piece?

To answer your question, starting at the title and also the last paragraph. And some stuff in between.

I doubt any real investors would take this article seriously, but I'm no expert. I doubt any trends in the economy that are based on 4 weeks have much value.

[vertical_doug]

To answer your question, starting at the title and also the last paragraph. And some stuff in between.

I doubt any real investors would take this article seriously, but I'm no expert. I doubt any trends in the economy that are based on 4 weeks have much value.

when the market makes big sustained moves, it's the serious money at work.

[Dallas Tex]

Colker, to be fair, it is an opinion piece. The results of Trump decisions will not known until sometime in the future, so the author is forecasting which is an opinion.

I find it ironic that Trump does use the rise in the equity market as a barometer of his success. If we take a step back, the 'investor market' is often blamed as being short term orientated at the expense of longer term gains. The rise in the equity market is forecasting the rise in corporate profits, but it does not say anything for the future prospects of American Workers. Since worker wage increases are a big component of future inflation, the bond market is now rallying and the inflation fear seems to be fading into the past.

Taking the bond market and equity market together, the markets seem to be forecasting a increase in corporate profits without wage gains. Since the largest portion of corporate profits now accrue to the capital holder, then the 1% will indeed win again.

(This is an opinion, but a reasoned one)

The equity market is normally a leading indicator of economic performance, and I can't think of a more reliable indicator.

I think the article and your comment are divorcing employer success from employee success. While not always a direct relationship, it's a good bet that good fortunes for employer makes for good fortunes for employee (and the opposite is also true).

Until I actually see something happen I'm skeptical. But with spoken intentions of regulation & tax systems designed to encourage domestic expansion of facilities & employment , I'd hope that the rising economic tide raises everyone's ship.

[vertical_doug]

The equity market is normally a leading indicator of economic performance, and I can't think of a more reliable indicator.

I think the article and your comment are divorcing employer success from employee success. While not always a direct relationship, it's a good bet that good fortunes for employer makes for good fortunes for employee (and the opposite is also true).

Until I actually see something happen I'm skeptical. But with spoken intentions of regulation & tax systems designed to encourage domestic expansion of facilities & employment , I'd hope that the rising economic tide raises everyone's ship.

Yes, if a company does better, the employees generally do better. However, over time, more and more of the growth has gone to benefit the shareholders and other capital holders instead of employees. Employees still benefit but not nearly as much as they did historically.

[Dallas Tex]

Yes, if a company does better, the employees generally do better. However, over time, more and more of the growth has gone to benefit the shareholders and other capital holders instead of employees. Employees still benefit but not nearly as much as they did historically.

I'm not sure I agree with all of that. But I was just having a slightly related conversation with my better half.

We talked about that it wasn't that long ago when all jobs paid better. The example was a guy she knew that used to drive for Blue Bell. His wife worked part time & they were able to afford a nice house in a great neighborhood and raise 4 kids. Times have changed. I'm reasonably sure the economics of this example have changed too. And wages like everything else are dictated by supply & demand. IMHO it seems to me that more jobs would increase demand for employees and drive up wages, just as increased demand drives up the cost of near everything else.

[Saab2000]

Equities markets have been rising steadily since 2009. People in the market during that period of time have done very well, though I recently talked with one dimwit who didn't understand anything about basic arithmetic and seemed to think that his portfolio declined in value during that time. If true, it's an epic case of mismanagement during a period of great market expansion, but I digress.

Mostly I wouldn't put too much stock (no pun intended) in short term trends in markets but any of us with a 401k or IRA are pleased with market performance or late of course.

[Matthew J]

Just curious, would you consider this factual reporting or an opinion piece ?

Well, I can sure say I would consider the O'Reilly Factor Fox piece on the Swedish Immigrant Crime Spree (called out by the NY Times, natch) a con man's yarn.

[Matthew J]

IMHO it seems to me that more jobs would increase demand for employees and drive up wages, just as increased demand drives up the cost of near everything else.

Has not been happening however. US unemployment rates is under 5% but salaries have not been increasing.

[colker]

Has not been happening however. US unemployment rates is under 5% but salaries have not been increasing.

The trend has been for low salaries and cheap goods. Either because goods were imported or credit was easy(houses). Otoh, education and medical expenses are increasingly more expensive. Am I wrong?

[C.Dyer]

Just curious, would you consider this factual reporting or an opinion piece ?

Daltex, I asked this of you a page back, but perhaps you didn't see it...

What are your go-to sources for news these days? What do you consider to be the paper (substitute website/channel/magazine etc as needed) of record?

[spopepro]

The Mig-21s are part of the Romanian air force.. ... flying Romania colors of Red, Yellow , Blue bullseye on the tail?

Like this one? The 15s are on the other end of the ramp.

Are you sure the photo isn't from this military exercise

Yes.

Forgive me for not snapping my own picture of it--regardless of classification, I don't whip out my phone in the hangar or the flight line as I have no clearance, line badge, or rank personally.

[Dallas Tex]

Daltex, I asked this of you a page back, but perhaps you didn't see it...

What are your go-to sources for news these days? What do you consider to be the paper (substitute website/channel/magazine etc as needed) of record?

I saw your original post. Didn't respond because I was interested in a discussion, not a 'back & forth' argument that both sides are trying to 'win'. I'll assume you're not looking for an internet debate either:

The concept of 'paper of record' is obsolete. Too much money involved (or too little) . I haven't subscribed to the nyt in years, I haven't held a printed newspaper in years. Closest would be an occasional issue of The Economist.

For online production news my go to is Al Jazeera. It's hardly unbiased, but makes the effort to be far less sophomoric than typical 'news' sources.

I love all of the Sunday morning TV talking head news shows: meet the press, fox news sunday, face the nation, etc.

For unfiltered news, I go to YouTube. A lot. After I see something about some outrageous speech someone gave or some protest. I like to see the points being made in context, not filtered by either side.

No twitter. No rush. I've seen rush tv show maybe 5 times at airports years ago, never heard his radio show. No facebook 'news'.

Why the interest in my likes / dislikes ?

[vertical_doug]

I'm not sure I agree with all of that. But I was just having a slightly related conversation with my better half.

We talked about that it wasn't that long ago when all jobs paid better. The example was a guy she knew that used to drive for Blue Bell. His wife worked part time & they were able to afford a nice house in a great neighborhood and raise 4 kids. Times have changed. I'm reasonably sure the economics of this example have changed too. And wages like everything else are dictated by supply & demand. IMHO it seems to me that more jobs would increase demand for employees and drive up wages, just as increased demand drives up the cost of near everything else.

Which is why the bond market is a better leading indicator for wage growth. More jobs, more competition for wages, higher wages leads to higher inflation. Slightly higher inflation would be a good thing. However, the US Treasury market is rather complacent at the 2.4% 10 yr level. When investors were more bullish about President Trump creating more high value jobs, the market had a negative view on rates expecting inflation to rise (many people were calling for 3% 10 yr). Since start of the year, the bond market is much more relaxed and has rallied slightly for lower rates meaning inflation fears are subsiding. You also see that in USD vs other currencies.

If Trump focuses on deregulation, he may enable companies to cut compliance costs, but not necessarily lead to employment gains. So higher stock market, lower bond yields, no net gain for average working Joe.

This is the point Ed Luce of FT is making.

[C.Dyer]

Why the interest in my likes / dislikes ?

Just putting your critiques in context. It's useful in a discussion to know where someone is coming from. I see a lot of this "fake news media" talk these days decrying the NYT or whatever source from folks who will then spread articles from Breitbart, The Washington Times, InfoWars, and the like. The other outspoken conservative on this forum does that regularly for example. The other side does it too, I'm not going to pretend we're above it. There's plenty of really execrable stuff out there.

Anyway, it sounds like you've got a wise approach to media consumption, and I appreciate you taking the time to reply.