Virus thread, the political one.

[ColonelJLloyd]

Other than ascribing responsibility to the government, why do you believe Australia is the only "Western" nation with a population over 10M to have had success against Covid-19. Not taking into account that it's a relatively isolated continent (island).

This would seem a big part of it to me. And they have relatively few states and relatively small population. They've closed interstate borders.

But, to your question (that wasn't directed at me, sorry), my general feeling is that Aussies by and large have had more buy-in/less skepticism and less politicization of best practices.

[thollandpe]

Other than ascribing responsibility to the government, why do you believe Australia is the only "Western" nation with a population over 10M to have had success against Covid-19. Not taking into account that it's a relatively isolated continent (island).

I hear this a lot from people dismissing the more successful efforts by Australia and New Zealand to combat the virus. That they're remote, island nations.

A flight from Wuhan to Brisbane is 10 hours, Wuhan to LA is 14 hours. So that's in conflict with the "China virus" narrative and that the travel restriction on non-US citizens from China (the thing that's been mischaracterized as a ban) was decisive and effective.

Saying that being an island is effective against virus spread suggests that our borders with Canada and Mexico were significant vectors for Covid-19, which I don't believe they were.

[jimcav]

The willingness, and easier ability, to close borders helped, but it wasn't rocket science. All successful nations have had the same playbook of early detection, isolation, and tracing to limit the spread of the virus into the community. The introduction of virus is always initially via some travelers, it was how countries successfully contained that which makes the big difference. From the article below:

"The Australian response to COVID-19 has kept the country largely free from large-scale transmission, such as occurred in Europe, the USA and Latin America, by halting flights from China in February, and stopping inbound travel by non-Australian residents from 20th March 2020. Robust social distancing measures were also adopted country-wide on that date and further strengthened on 26th March 2020 [3-5], resulting in substantial reductions in person-to-person contact in workplaces and the community. These measures resulted in very low levels of COVID19 virus transmission, with almost all cases arising from returning Australians infected outside the country. All arrivals were required to enter 14 days of managed hotel quarantine. Certain Australian states (e.g. Western Australia and Queensland) also closed their interstate borders. The initial success of Australia in halting the arrival of infectious individuals, and managing the limited number of community transmissions via testing and contact tracing, allowed all Australian states to start easing social distancing measures from May onwards, including allowing schools to reopen, as detailed in Table 1. The total number of COVID-19 related deaths for the whole of Australia was ~100 up to 6th May 2020, and stayed constant at that number for the next 8 weeks.
In late May, a breakdown in hotel quarantine regulations in Melbourne, State of Victoria, followed by a number of unauthorized, large-scale family gatherings, allowed the SARS-Cov-2 virus to enter the wider population in greater Melbourne, with diagnosed case numbers increasing from June onwards [6]. Case data resulting from this second wave outbreak provided us with a unique opportunity to analyze the non-pharmaceutical (NPI) measures used, and the significance of their activation timing. This study was facilitated by the fact that Australia’s second wave was geographically contained to greater Melbourne, and not impacted by the ongoing introduction of infectious persons. This “self-contained” second wave provided us with high quality data on daily case
numbers, as in Figure 1, allowing us to evaluate second wave response measures without interference from introduced cases".

article
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....16.20232843v1

[Mark Kelly]

I am no expert on the subject but I think isolation is a big factor: look at the shaky isles and Western Australia, both of which are even more isolated than Australia and both have been more successful: WA has had ~800 cases and 9 deaths from a population of 2.5 mil.

You asked about other factors, however, and culture is the big one IMO. We don't (yet) have the toxic levels of individualism that seem to infest the US body politic. I think this was reinforced by just having come through the worst bushfire season ever.

We also didn't have the mixed messaging that seemed to make things worse elsewhere: an early response was to get the national and state leadership together as the "National Cabinet" which then promulgated policy that was openly an endorsement of the scientific advice. Messaging in media was also pretty good: you may remember Jonathan Swan, the Australian journalist who famously interviewed Trump earlier this year: his father Norman is a respected medical journalist working for the national broadcaster here and he became the go to source of information for many people. Predictably Rupert Murdoch's media outlets cut across this with the usual campaign of disinformation but this didn't change much (but it did reach some: see Bunnings Karen).

Lastly an example of where things went really well: you may know that Australia has a shameful history of mistreatment of its original peoples, who continue to suffer, particularly in health care. There are a number of semi-autonomous Aboriginal health services because of this. At the very beginning of this, in February, they got together and decided basically "if this gets in to our populations we are screwed so we'd better keep it out". The policy decision was to close down access to remote Aboriginal communities: this was supported by the various governments and big chunks of the country were promptly declared no-go areas. The net response from the rest of the country was "good idea, hope it works" and indeed it did. Contrast that with the Sioux having their attempts to keep themselves safe stymied by government authorities.

[BBB]

The lockdown in Melbourne involved a curfew (8pm to 5am), movement limited to a 5km radius from home and only being allowed out of home for limited specified reasons (one person per day to do the shopping limited to an hour, one hour of exercise, going to a doctor). If you were an essential worker (a doctor, a member of the police force etc) then you could move around for your work without these restrictions. In any event, the lockdown constrained movement and hence was able to constrain community transmission. So yes Australia being an island did help as did closing internal borders between states, lockdowns, including the longer and more restricted lockdown in Melbourne, played a vital role.

The Conversation article that Mark linked regarding suicide was fascinating.

[beeatnik]

A different way of asking. Why weren't all the non-individualistic European or Western European-descended (ethnically homogenous), non-individualistic, curfew-instituting nations able to replicate Australia's success. Why is Australia an outlier?

Related question: Did the "sensationalistic" coverage from the ABC prepare the nation to accept seemingly draconian restrictions?

Back in Feb while the epidemiologists in my orbit all believed SARS-CoV-2 would disappear like SARS, these reports were game changers for my perception of the crisis:





It seems to me the coverage above is a function of a certain type of proximity. Australia may be hours away but China's gravitational pull is massive.

[Mark Kelly]

Never underestimate the effect of dumb luck. Australia Felix.

Australia is a lucky country, run mainly by second-rate people who share its luck.

Donald Horne, "The Lucky Country"

[Colinmclelland]

Was there more to the US “stimulus” than a one off cheque for US$1,200 to everyone?

I hope so. Because if you’ve lost your job and have a family WTAF are you supposed to do with that? It’s not going to cover many bills for very long.

[ColonelJLloyd]

Was there more to the US “stimulus” than a one off cheque for US$1,200 to everyone?

Where do you live?

[Colinmclelland]

Where do you live?

I live in Australia, where support has been a tad more targeted and extensive.

[Colinmclelland]

The lockdown in Melbourne involved a curfew (8pm to 5am), movement limited to a 5km radius from home and only being allowed out of home for limited specified reasons (one person per day to do the shopping limited to an hour, one hour of exercise, going to a doctor). If you were an essential worker (a doctor, a member of the police force etc) then you could move around for your work without these restrictions. In any event, the lockdown constrained movement and hence was able to constrain community transmission. So yes Australia being an island did help as did closing internal borders between states, lockdowns, including the longer and more restricted lockdown in Melbourne, played a vital role.

The big thing to me is that while there was a vocal opposition to the length of the lockdown in Melbourne, the people opposing it weren't actually ignoring it. To go from where they were at lockdown to 31 days of no cases is phenomenal, an the rest of both understands and appreciates the sacrifices that led to the achievement. People bitched and moaned, but they bitched and moaned from home.

That and politicians (who were briefly leaders) saying "this is what the science says, so suck it up princess"

[ColonelJLloyd]

I live in Australia, where support has been a tad more targeted and extensive.

I see. I wasn't sure if your question was rhetorical.

It's my opinion that the US hasn't done enough by any metric. That said, given so many other examples of ineptitude and worse during this administration I feel confident this country's stimulus measures (that's a big umbrella) could actually have been worse. But, the last many months of certain people sitting on their hands has been hard to watch but not surprising.

If you are sincerely asking for examples of other stimulus/economic support measures then I can list some.

[beeatnik]

The big thing to me is that while there was a vocal opposition to the length of the lockdown in Melbourne, the people opposing it weren't actually ignoring it. To go from where they were at lockdown to 31 days of no cases is phenomenal, an the rest of both understands and appreciates the sacrifices that led to the achievement. People bitched and moaned, but they bitched and moaned from home.

That and politicians (who were briefly leaders) saying "this is what the science says, so suck it up princess"

How does this work in practice? I watched some ABC coverage and recall being impressed by the compliance. That said, how do you keep every single person under 30, every single individual with non-conventional sexual needs, every person who works fast food at home. How do you keep these people and many others from circulating? Militarized police?

[BBB]

The big thing to me is that while there was a vocal opposition to the length of the lockdown in Melbourne, the people opposing it weren't actually ignoring it. To go from where they were at lockdown to 31 days of no cases is phenomenal, an the rest of both understands and appreciates the sacrifices that led to the achievement. People bitched and moaned, but they bitched and moaned from home.

That and politicians (who were briefly leaders) saying "this is what the science says, so suck it up princess"

As I understand, the lockdown was supported by about 2/3 of the population. There was a vocal minority and protests about masks and being required to stay at home led to arrests and condemnation.

[Colinmclelland]

I see. I wasn't sure if your question was rhetorical.

It's my opinion that the US hasn't done enough by any metric. That said, given so many other examples of ineptitude and worse during this administration I feel confident this country's stimulus measures (that's a big umbrella) could actually have been worse. But, the last many months of certain people sitting on their hands has been hard to watch but not surprising.

If you are sincerely asking for examples of other stimulus/economic support measures then I can list some.

Sorry, I should have been clearer. Yeah, I'm aware of rent & mortgage deferments etc (although it seems like you are supposed to magically be able to pay the accrued debt once the deferment ends? Here the term gets extended...) but that's about the limit of my knowledge.

I just don't see how a small one off payment would help if you were really dropped in it. But maybe there is a lot more that just I just don't know about?

[vertical_doug]

Sorry, I should have been clearer. Yeah, I'm aware of rent & mortgage deferments etc (although it seems like you are supposed to magically be able to pay the accrued debt once the deferment ends? Here the term gets extended...) but that's about the limit of my knowledge.

I just don't see how a small one off payment would help if you were really dropped in it. But maybe there is a lot more that just I just don't know about?

It wasn't one small payment. You had a combination of tax rebate you could claim of 1,200 per person and on top of usual unemployment benefits, you received an additional $600 per week from end of March until July.

Is this a lot of money? No, it is not. However, in the American context of the working poor, it is and it was actually the equivalent of a pay increase for many. You asked the question how this would help someone in the 'thick of it', when the daily experience of many Americans before COVID was already 'in the thick of it'. A more fundamental question is how can large companies like Amazon / Walmart justify paying people bare minimum wages and have the highest number of workers receiving benefits from the government. (I am basing this on the estimate that 11% of Amazon employees in Ohio qualify for SNAP)

(actually it should not be a surprise both companies are aggressively anti-union)

[ColonelJLloyd]

Sorry, I should have been clearer. Yeah, I'm aware of rent & mortgage deferments etc (although it seems like you are supposed to magically be able to pay the accrued debt once the deferment ends? Here the term gets extended...) but that's about the limit of my knowledge.

I just don't see how a small one off payment would help if you were really dropped in it. But maybe there is a lot more that just I just don't know about?

The true intent of the one time cash payment is/was not sustain an individual or family. It's expected the individuals will spend the money relatively quickly thereby putting those monies into circulation in the overall economy. That is the true goal, stated or not.

In the US each of the 50 states administers unemployment claims and compensation. As part of a legislative response to the economic conditions early on the federal government supplemented the weekly compensation an individual would receive by an additional $600 (on top of state benefits of maybe $200-400 weekly depending on other factors). That federal supplement expired at the end of July.

In an effort to help impacted businesses retain employees thereby keeping them employed and not requiring unemployment compensation, the Congress allocated funds providing forgivable loans to businesses who kept employees on the payroll and did not reduce their hours or wages by more than 25%. This was passed early on and was intended to buoy the employer burden for only two months of wages.

[bigbill]

It wasn't one small payment. You had a combination of tax rebate you could claim of 1,200 per person and on top of usual unemployment benefits, you received an additional $600 per week from end of March until July.

Is this a lot of money? No, it is not. However, in the American context of the working poor, it is and it was actually the equivalent of a pay increase for many. You asked the question how this would help someone in the 'thick of it', when the daily experience of many Americans before COVID was already 'in the thick of it'. A more fundamental question is how can large companies like Amazon / Walmart justify paying people bare minimum wages and have the highest number of workers receiving benefits from the government. (I am basing this on the estimate that 11% of Amazon employees in Ohio qualify for SNAP)

(actually it should not be a surprise both companies are aggressively anti-union)

In AZ, the minimum wage is up to $13 now. With the $600 added on unemployment, the folks out of work were making $22.50/hour, well above the minimum wage target of $15/hour. We had a really tough time hiring folks in the $14-20/hour range because of the $600. Now we're barely staying in production because of the Covid surge.

[Clean39T]

In AZ, the minimum wage is up to $13 now. With the $600 added on unemployment, the folks out of work were making $22.50/hour, well above the minimum wage target of $15/hour. We had a really tough time hiring folks in the $14-20/hour range because of the $600. Now we're barely staying in production because of the Covid surge.

Your staffing difficulties don't negate the life-saving benefit of the stimulus going out to folks who really need it. I won't pretend to know your business but I would guess that there are/were folks who have other reasons for not returning to work at the first opportunity beyond the delta in their paycheck vs. unemployment benefits - family illness, childcare, transportation, etc.

IMHO, the "stimulus" should have been 10X to the working class, with multipliers for those with dependents and the fixed-income elderly. The money was obviously there given the impact the PPP had on the grifting-class.....

[HorsCat]

Your staffing difficulties don't negate the life-saving benefit of the stimulus going out to folks who really need it. I won't pretend to know your business but I would guess that there are/were folks who have other reasons for not returning to work at the first opportunity beyond the delta in their paycheck vs. unemployment benefits - family illness, childcare, transportation, etc.

IMHO, the "stimulus" should have been 10X to the working class, with multipliers for those with dependents and the fixed-income elderly. The money was obviously there given the impact the PPP had on the grifting-class.....

It's complicated, especially 'in the trenches.' I say this as someone who leans progressive on many issues (and who believes in a strong social safety net). But I work in an organization where we had a tough time getting some people to return to work because their unemployment benefits were richer than their on the job package. We pay market rates. Market rates enable many of these people to eke out a pretty meager existence. So I get that these people are making a rational economic decision, but I also get that it hamstrings companies, because I have seen it happen.