Ukraine

[Scott G.]

If any of those people gave a crap about anyone other than themselves, they wouldn’t have stripped the country of assets to build their mountainous wealth. Plus without Putin, they are all at risk from many directions. But I wonder if the accuracy of US intelligence up to this point suggests they have someone at least with an ear to a door.

Well if Putin is motivated by humiliation to invade Ukraine, I'd say the Tsar did a fine job of humiliating the former members
of his inner circle on national TV at that news conference. Disaffected Boyars and Streltsy have some history of removing
Tsars in Russia.

[vertical_doug]

I'm pretty sure this FT Article is free to read and not behind the paywall as part of special coverage on Russia.

https://www.ft.com/content/503fb110-...c-0d09582dd007

Inside Putin’s circle — the real Russian elite

[EDS]

I'm pretty sure this FT Article is free to read and not behind the paywall as part of special coverage on Russia.

https://www.ft.com/content/503fb110-...c-0d09582dd007

Inside Putin’s circle — the real Russian elite

Scary stuff.

[j44ke]

I'm pretty sure this FT Article is free to read and not behind the paywall as part of special coverage on Russia.

https://www.ft.com/content/503fb110-...c-0d09582dd007

Inside Putin’s circle — the real Russian elite

Good article. That differentiation between types of oligarchs is spot on. The re-nationalization of Russian industry was really important.

[theflashunc]

New Yorker continuing to bring in reasoned perspectives from the relative position of all sides on this. (Ostensibly, how much NATO expansion played into this.)

Stephen Kotkin seems to think not.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and...ukraine-stalin

[rabo]

Ukrainian defense makes me think of Kurosawa,s Seven Samurai.
Ps Marina Ovsyannikova ( the lady with the sign during the live Russian news broadcast) has a heart as big as Pogacars.

[j44ke]

New Yorker continuing to bring in reasoned perspectives from the relative position of all sides on this. (Ostensibly, how much NATO expansion played into this.)

Stephen Kotkin seems to think not.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and...ukraine-stalin

Another set of well-reasoned theories. At least on paper, the guy interviews like several friends in Europe with similar views of Putin and the west.

The way I read these things is first, with an appreciation for well thought out and informed responses and second, as balanced by the awareness that in certain circumstances knowing the why and wherefore won’t save lives and doesn’t prevent future occurrences of similar events. However it does offer a glimmer of hope that humans are fathomable and progress is possible, even with all the despotic sociopathic maniacs that exist at every level of society.

[vertical_doug]

It's not what I say, it is what I do. No matter how much bluster is coming from Putin, the financial people in Russia are doing everything they can not to get completely wiped out here. The country is basically now at the same value it was in 1992 at the start of the voucher program. Putin's War has set the country back 30 years financially.



Russia Says Eurobond Coupon Payment Made to Correspondent Bank
2022-03-17 08:46:20.284 GMT


By Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s Finance Ministry said a $117
million interest payment due on two dollar bonds had been made
to Citibank in London amid mounting speculation that the country
is heading for a default.

The ministry said it will comment separately later on
whether the payment had been credited. The bank is Russia’s
eurobond payment agent.

Russia had until the end of business Wednesday to honor the
coupons on the two notes. If it doesn’t do so within the grace
period, that would be the first time the nation has reneged on
its obligations to foreign creditors since the Bolsheviks
repudiated the czar’s debts in 1918.


Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has repeatedly warned that
without access to its foreign reserves, Russia will make the
payment in rubles, outlining a process that involves
transferring the cash into local accounts. Fitch Ratings said on
Tuesday that making a settlement in any currency other than the
dollar within the grace period would be considered a default. S&P
Global Ratings made a similar statement earlier this month.

[jclay]

Colonel William Astore's latest on our new "Cold War": https://tomdispatch.com/arsenal-of-d...ly-an-arsenal/

Humans really are going to ball this planet up; only the timing and details are in question. We really can't seem to help ourselves.

[j44ke]

It's not what I say, it is what I do. No matter how much bluster is coming from Putin, the financial people in Russia are doing everything they can not to get completely wiped out here. The country is basically now at the same value it was in 1992 at the start of the voucher program. Putin's War has set the country back 30 years financially.



Russia Says Eurobond Coupon Payment Made to Correspondent Bank
2022-03-17 08:46:20.284 GMT


By Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s Finance Ministry said a $117
million interest payment due on two dollar bonds had been made
to Citibank in London amid mounting speculation that the country
is heading for a default.

The ministry said it will comment separately later on
whether the payment had been credited. The bank is Russia’s
eurobond payment agent.

Russia had until the end of business Wednesday to honor the
coupons on the two notes. If it doesn’t do so within the grace
period, that would be the first time the nation has reneged on
its obligations to foreign creditors since the Bolsheviks
repudiated the czar’s debts in 1918.


Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has repeatedly warned that
without access to its foreign reserves, Russia will make the
payment in rubles, outlining a process that involves
transferring the cash into local accounts. Fitch Ratings said on
Tuesday that making a settlement in any currency other than the
dollar within the grace period would be considered a default. S&P
Global Ratings made a similar statement earlier this month.

Like the old days of putting the check for the electric company in the gas company envelope and the gas company check in the envelope for the phone company etc. so everything would take a while to get sorted out and a paycheck would arrive.

[vertical_doug]

I think it is different. Putin said they would not pay. They paid. Russia is weak here and the financial people around Putin know it.
He has two weeks to land this war, or he loses.

[Scott G.]

Colonel William Astore's latest on our new "Cold War": https://tomdispatch.com/arsenal-of-d...ly-an-arsenal/

Humans really are going to ball this planet up; only the timing and details are in question. We really can't seem to help ourselves.

You read this yet JC ?

https://us.macmillan.com/books/97812...rsofcapitalism

Meanwhile Putin seems to want to turn Russia into Mugabe's Zimbabwe, Vlad sounds more like Robert Mugabe with every
speech.

[Marvinlungwitz]

Ukrainian defense makes me think of Kurosawa,s Seven Samurai.
Ps Marina Ovsyannikova ( the lady with the sign during the live Russian news broadcast) has a heart as big as Pogacars.

The minor fine they gave her may be one of the best moves Russia has made: Don’t create a martyr, and deal with her definitively when she’s out of the public eye.

Definitely a gutsy lady.

[j44ke]

Don't know why I didn't realize it, but the mayor of Kyiv is Vitali Klitschko, the former boxer and brother of Wladimir Klitschko, the former world heavyweight champion. Mayor Klitschko has not minced words when talking about Russia, and he looks tough as nails. And I guess he IS tough as nails, given his past career.

[robin3mj]

Don't know why I didn't realize it, but the mayor of Kyiv is Vitali Klitschko, the former boxer and brother of Wladimir Klitschko, the former world heavyweight champion. Mayor Klitschko has not minced words when talking about Russia, and he looks tough as nails. And I guess he IS tough as nails, given his past career.

Wladimir is also a Kyiv official.
Would not want to be the 18-y.o. Russian conscript who gets separated from his patrol and encounters those two on a darkened street.

Those guys were monsters. You know you’re a big dude when you make Lennox Lewis look small by comparison.

[Peter Polack]

He has two weeks to land this war, or he loses.

How did you come up with that conclusion?

[bigbill]

How did you come up with that conclusion?

I'm not speaking for Doug, but the Russian economy is on the edge of collapse. There have been news stories about how the Russians will run out of ammo, food, and fuel in less than two weeks. We have seen how the Russians made a mess out of the invasion, but the financials are the larger issue. Russia can't pay on their debts and could default financially in the next few weeks. The oligarchs will continue to see their wealth collapse and no longer support Putin. You can only do so much with guns and fear.

[Peter Polack]

There have been news stories about how the Russians will run out of ammo, food, and fuel in less than two weeks.

Interesting; I haven't seen those reports yet, but I'll trust you have.

What baffles me is, HOW is Ukraine being resupplied with war material? You would assume the only way it's getting in is through the Polish border, and you would think Russian would have closed off that avenue. It's certainly not being air-dropped as that would risk being shot down. And with the ports being under siege and the Russian Navy floating around on the border seas, I can't imagine shipments getting in through the ports.

It will be interesting to see if the sanctions really tighten the noose around Putin. I'll assume he won't exercise the nuclear option as long as his troops are on the ground, unless Putin calls for a withdrawl and drops the bombs in spite as he shuts the door.

[vertical_doug]

Interesting; I haven't seen those reports yet, but I'll trust you have.

What baffles me is, HOW is Ukraine being resupplied with war material? You would assume the only way it's getting in is through the Polish border, and you would think Russian would have closed off that avenue. It's certainly not being air-dropped as that would risk being shot down. And with the ports being under siege and the Russian Navy floating around on the border seas, I can't imagine shipments getting in through the ports.

It will be interesting to see if the sanctions really tighten the noose around Putin. I'll assume he won't exercise the nuclear option as long as his troops are on the ground, unless Putin calls for a withdrawl and drops the bombs in spite as he shuts the door.

There are a few things people aren't talking about. One is the narrative back in Russia is not necessarily believed, but Putin still controls the airwaves. April 1 - June 15, is the new conscription season in Russia. It will be interesting to see how many try to dodge the draft, but more importantly, previous years conscripts finish their tour and should be sent back home. If they go home, it will be hard for Putin to control the narrative of what they can say. If they don't go home, how do you explain needed extra men? Is the war going badly?

Two: Russia made a strategic mistake several years ago when Donbas became a Russian quasi-state inside Ukraine during the last war. Instead of showering the region with money (it is strongly ethnic Russian) and showing how great life under Russia can be, it let the region languish. It is now a dystopian land controlled by warlords and criminal gangs. The free Ukrainians know this and have zero interest in being a vassal of Russia.

Three: The depth and breadth of the financial sanctions are mind-boggling. I look at Russian assets and essentially, it is 1992 all over again. Imagine if the US economy reset to 1992 levels?

Four: If Putin really wanted to escalate and show his strength, he could cut off the gas to western europe. He hasn't done this. Moreover, as he has stated again and again, Russia would not pay it's bonds, or if it did, it would pay in rubles. It has done neither. Why? Because the financial interests of Russia know they need to be part of the international community. As soon as they default, the creditors will claim everything Russia owns outside of Russia and there will be no going back.

Five: This leads to the quandary- Putin needs an exit ramp, because if his only two choices are escalation and capitulation, he escalates. His recent escalation with the hypersonic missile and indiscriminate bombing is a final push to get a peace deal and claim he was winning. The hang-up here, may be if he wants sanctions lifted sooner rather than later. Typically, sanctions have historically been a hotel california, you can check-in, but you never leave. This is particularly true for individuals...... Will the US/EU let the Russian State off sanctions, but keep the 500+ Russians added to the sanctions list? But if the US lets Russia off sanctions, then if sanctions only last until the conflict ends regardless of what you did, that will no longer be a deterrent. . .

It's a bit like the Nazis in Stalingrad. If you already claimed victory, you aren't allowed to retreat.

[bigbill]

Interesting; I haven't seen those reports yet, but I'll trust you have.

What baffles me is, HOW is Ukraine being resupplied with war material? You would assume the only way it's getting in is through the Polish border, and you would think Russian would have closed off that avenue. It's certainly not being air-dropped as that would risk being shot down. And with the ports being under siege and the Russian Navy floating around on the border seas, I can't imagine shipments getting in through the ports.

It will be interesting to see if the sanctions really tighten the noose around Putin. I'll assume he won't exercise the nuclear option as long as his troops are on the ground, unless Putin calls for a withdrawl and drops the bombs in spite as he shuts the door.

I never bought into Russia running out of materials. The question is how much they squander in Ukraine. The Russians heavily invested in weapons and weapons systems but apparently the Russian guy on the ground isn't very good at using them. The Russians didn't plan on the invasion going this long as shown by the shortage of supply trucks. A lot have been targeted but that doesn't account for severe shortages. I think the Russians planned on a swift move across Ukraine followed by the supplies after the Ukraine military had folded. Now they have to re-equip troops across hostile roadways.