Crowdsourcing predictions of US travel policy in the near future due to COVID

[bigbill]

Kingman is probably <50%.

I look at this as everyone is now about to catch the flu in the next 4 weeks. Instead of the typical 5-10% of the population, 50% of the population will catch it . . . even with flu mortality, that is a lot of death. I am a bit sanguine on this as I view this as the inevitability that had to happen- A little humility for the human race with respect to mother nature.

Mohave County is at 42%. I'm guilty of apathy, when I see new names on the Covid list (which has HIPAA controls but I'm authorized), it is published on an excel document that provides vaccination status. Of the 170ish cases in the past two years, <5 were breakthrough. It sucks to have folks out sick, and although almost all survive, it drives up overtime on the remaining workers. It's not a cost issue, it's the burnout of the folks working extra hours each day. It's not sustainable.

People have been given the information and vaccinations are essentially free, at some point they live or die. I hope we don't have more shutdowns.

[Mabouya]

Of the 170ish cases in the past two years, <5 were breakthrough.

As more and more folks are vaccinated and more and more different variants develop I'm sure we'll have more breakthroughs. The vast majority of the cases wreaking havoc on the NFL and NBA are breakthrough infections. Happily, due to vaccines, not many are serious.

[ides1056]

My wife, unvaccinated, has had Covid for the past 10 days. Running a fever of 100-102. A cough that codeine syrup abates so she can sleep. I moved out a year ago last March, and thought I did not have any farther to go toward separation, but this is a new milepost. Mediation is in the future.
My daughter came down with it as well. She's an essential worker so had her two relatively early and hadn't yet gotten the booster because a clinic set up by her employer, a drug rehabilitation facility, fell through. Two days of unpleasantness and she is on the mend with a mandatory two week vacation she desperately needed.
Son in the house with them recovering from myocarditis. He still thinks he's invincible.

There's little I can do to change this dynamic.

I am checking Wundermap daily to see what conditions are along the Southern Tier. A friend I met on the route a few years ago before we had to abandon is flying to Key West in early January to ride the longer way. I can get a direct flight from Bradley, which is a little more than an hour's drive, for 170$.

Wheels are turning.

[bigbill]

My wife had a breakthrough case in late August. Three days of bad cold then it was done. We had both been at an event in Jackson, WY that evidently was attended by a actively sick asshat. Over 20 infections resulted from that event. I never felt sick and tested negative.

I get that break through cases are on a steep incline, but the folks clogging up the hospitals here in Mohave County are unvaccinated.

[j44ke]

Our neighbor in the city is vaccinated and boostered and just emailed me that our meeting tomorrow with the building's engineer on preparations for city-mandated repairs is cancelled because he (our neighbor) woke up feeling ill so got tested and it came back positive for covid. He's 80.

[j44ke]

Mohave County is at 42%. I'm guilty of apathy, when I see new names on the Covid list (which has HIPAA controls but I'm authorized), it is published on an excel document that provides vaccination status. Of the 170ish cases in the past two years, <5 were breakthrough. It sucks to have folks out sick, and although almost all survive, it drives up overtime on the remaining workers. It's not a cost issue, it's the burnout of the folks working extra hours each day. It's not sustainable.

People have been given the information and vaccinations are essentially free, at some point they live or die. I hope we don't have more shutdowns.

I forget though you've mentioned it before - how many people in your company? I think I remember you said most were vaccinated after an incentive program?

I've been wondering whether companies have started over-hiring yet. Meaning hiring more people (if that's possible) than pre-covid staffing numbers, then using the extra hires as fill-ins to prevent the sort of unsustainable burnout rate among staff. I doubt any company in America would do that, perhaps not any company anywhere. My sense is that most businesses operate on a sunny-day approach to most things because it is cheaper. Then burn through staff when it isn't sunny because that's cheaper also. But if over-hiring means the company is the one with product ready for market while everyone else is shut down or understaffed, well maybe that makes it better in the long run. I don't think anyone knows how long we will be in this continuous variant spin cycle.

[bigbill]

I forget though you've mentioned it before - how many people in your company? I think I remember you said most were vaccinated after an incentive program?

I've been wondering whether companies have started over-hiring yet. Meaning hiring more people (if that's possible) than pre-covid staffing numbers, then using the extra hires as fill-ins to prevent the sort of unsustainable burnout rate among staff. I doubt any company in America would do that, perhaps not any company anywhere. My sense is that most businesses operate on a sunny-day approach to most things because it is cheaper. Then burn through staff when it isn't sunny because that's cheaper also. But if over-hiring means the company is the one with product ready for market while everyone else is shut down or understaffed, well maybe that makes it better in the long run. I don't think anyone knows how long we will be in this continuous variant spin cycle.

We incentivized vaccines but we're still around 60%. This location has 700ish employees but tracking vaccination rates is tough because of high turnover in some departments. Manufacturers don't have materials, vendors to manufacturing plants don't have material. We're trying to keep our staffing for the expected orders, but we'll likely not meet either one. The latest hit was the flooding in BC that punched a hole in the timber industry. Prices have nearly doubled from their already inflated price. We're investing in equipment that automates processes now performed by people. With attrition, no one loses their job to a machine, we have other openings. But, for every process I can automate, I can turn it on and off as needed, can't do that with people. Covid has taught us how to operate more efficiently. When you've had grown accustomed to an "embarrassment of riches" when it comes to resources, you have to learn some things all over again.

[Clean39T]

Happily, due to vaccines, not many are serious.

Do we know this for sure? Is it confirmed that if acute symptoms are benign there are not long-term implications still in play? I really haven't read much on that..

[j44ke]

We incentivized vaccines but we're still around 60%. This location has 700ish employees but tracking vaccination rates is tough because of high turnover in some departments. Manufacturers don't have materials, vendors to manufacturing plants don't have material. We're trying to keep our staffing for the expected orders, but we'll likely not meet either one. The latest hit was the flooding in BC that punched a hole in the timber industry. Prices have nearly doubled from their already inflated price. We're investing in equipment that automates processes now performed by people. With attrition, no one loses their job to a machine, we have other openings. But, for every process I can automate, I can turn it on and off as needed, can't do that with people. Covid has taught us how to operate more efficiently. When you've had grown accustomed to an "embarrassment of riches" when it comes to resources, you have to learn some things all over again.

Right, makes sense. There are no vacuums or unlinked cubby-holes to shortages now. Everything is linked. And automation is part of the solution.

On one hand there have been plenty of stories in the papers about personal empowerment and quality of life decisions by people who view their jobs as substandard in either category. On the other, there may be a whole range of delayed efficiencies - as you describe - that business implements now. Covid as opportunity. Inevitably that’s going to create some gaps that will have to be overcome.

Reading some reporting on Manchin v. Biden. Hard to know who is being short-sighted and who is also being short-sighted just in a more damaging way.

[gregl]

I've been wondering whether companies have started over-hiring yet. Meaning hiring more people (if that's possible) than pre-covid staffing numbers, then using the extra hires as fill-ins to prevent the sort of unsustainable burnout rate among staff. I doubt any company in America would do that, perhaps not any company anywhere. My sense is that most businesses operate on a sunny-day approach to most things because it is cheaper. Then burn through staff when it isn't sunny because that's cheaper also. But if over-hiring means the company is the one with product ready for market while everyone else is shut down or understaffed, well maybe that makes it better in the long run. I don't think anyone knows how long we will be in this continuous variant spin cycle.

Not over-hiring, but definitely planning for retention challenges. I established much greater hiring goals for my part of the company to make sure we can handle increased attrition. We're under the federal contractor vaccine mandate. Nearly everyone is vaccinated, with a small (single-digit) percentage granted accommodations for medical or religious reasons. Between vaccine requirements, 100% masking in our NY offices, good social distancing policies, and a large amount of our employees still working from home, we're having almost zero impact from employees out sick with the virus. What we are facing is a very competitive job market and general burnout. People are demanding higher salaries, but even higher pay isn't keeping people in place. The pandemic has changed people's ideas of job satisfaction. We still have excellent retention, but we lose a significantly higher number of employees than pre-pandemic. On the plus side, the COVID burnout/boredom factor has allowed us to hire some great people who became tired and bored at their previous place of employment.

Greg

[j44ke]

These adjustments are pretty interesting to me. They mirror in a way adjustments due to weather pattern shifts. Decisions on what future(s) to plan for.

So Mabouya visits his mom like Bruce says but takes a stock of covid tests with him like Doug says.

[Mabouya]

Do we know this for sure? Is it confirmed that if acute symptoms are benign there are not long-term implications still in play? I really haven't read much on that..

The top story in today’s NYT says that that’s what the most recent studies are saying. I’d post a link, but I’m on my mother’s iPad and don’t know how to do <control-v> to paste the link.

[Mabouya]

So Mabouya visits his mom like Bruce says but takes a stock of covid tests with him like Doug says.

I made it down (shorts and a t-shirt, perfect weather as usual) but didn’t have the time to look into DIY test kits.

[j44ke]

I made it down (shorts and a t-shirt, perfect weather as usual) but didn’t have the time to look into DIY test kits.

Hey man, have a ton of fun. Seriously. Merry happy holiday to you and your family.