Covid19

[crumpton]

Looking through history, COVID-19 won't even be a blip in terms of infection and mortality rates but what has changed is our dependency on globalization and this about to get kicked in the nuts hard.

Outbreak: 1 of the Worst Pandemics in History

[colker]

Looking through history, COVID-19 won't even be a blip in terms of infection and mortality rates but what has changed is our dependency on globalization and this about to get kicked in the nuts hard.

Outbreak: 1 of the Worst Pandemics in History

Problem w/ Corona is that people are infected, transmitting the virus but asymptomatic making it impossible to contain the virus. Other than that it is low lethality.

[defspace]

Why the Coronavirus Seems to Hit Men Harder Than Women - The New York Times
Tobacco and the lung cancer epidemic in China

I thought this was interesting.

[davids]

There's lots of reasonable advice here.

It's clearly going to be a worldwide event, and there's no way to stop it at a national border. So preparation and mitigation seems the best strategy.

My resident RN stocked us up on acetaminophen, ibuprofen and Immodium D. And we'll get some small stock of non-perishable foods just in case we're homebound for a while. She's also suggesting (in addition to handwashing, her favorite flu-preventative) that we avoid elevators and other small public spaces. Unfortunately I can't easily stay off subways. Hey, I suppose I can start biking to work!

One of the challenges we're facing is that we truly don't know too much epidemiologically speaking. The disease is too new for us to really understand transmission and mortality, among other things.

[j44ke]

Male, smokers, lung ailments, and low level of physical activity seem to be factors. I'm just hoping my asthma isn't too much of a risk factor.

My wife is in Paris for a week. Before that she was in a long and stressful court room trial. Four different airplanes in two weeks. JFK. CDG. LHR. She's going to be wiped by the time she gets home Friday night. Do I kiss her when she gets home? Yes. But makes you think for sure.

BTW, clean your electronic devices, eh? And don't take them into the bathroom.

[fastupslowdown]

There's lots of reasonable advice here.

It's clearly going to be a worldwide event, and there's no way to stop it at a national border. So preparation and mitigation seems the best strategy.

My resident RN stocked us up on acetaminophen, ibuprofen and Immodium D. And we'll get some small stock of non-perishable foods just in case we're homebound for a while. She's also suggesting (in addition to handwashing, her favorite flu-preventative) that we avoid elevators and other small public spaces. Unfortunately I can't easily stay off subways. Hey, I suppose I can start biking to work!

One of the challenges we're facing is that we truly don't know too much epidemiologically speaking. The disease is too new for us to really understand transmission and mortality, among other things.

I bike to work. Avoid the subways

[Clean39T]

BTW, clean your electronic devices, eh? And don't take them into the bathroom.

A death knell for V-Salon...

[Too Tall]

A death knell for V-Salon...

Post-of-the-day

[bcm119]

The new case in California is in Solano county, which is where Travis AFB is, which is where a plane or two from Wuhan landed when Americans were evacuated from there a few weeks ago. I expect there eventually will be a link traced from that plane to this "community acquired" case.

[Will Neide]

I think there is no herd immunity. Until there is disease control via vaccine(s) or the damn thing mutates a finds another host we will see this burn thru the worlds population.

We might get lucky and find there is weak immunity in certain populations who have been recently vaccinated with the usual series (chicken pox, measles, mumps, rubella, polio). It's looking like children as (statistically from China numbers) much less likely to contract the virus.

I'm married to an epidemiologist. Are we having fun yet?

Gosh we haven't even started to talk about preppers have we?

I don't think it will burn through the population much faster than SARS or MERS (both coronaviruses). COVID19 is a SARS causing virus (severe acute respiratory syndrome). Fortunately, we know much about the previous 2, so a world response to the latest outbreak should be quick. Genetically, SARS (which would probably be called COVID02 with today's naming system) and COVID19 are very similar.

Following proper PPE practices, and potentially wearing a mask in densely populated areas, are going to vastly increase someone's odds.

China is just a perfect breeding ground for these virus' to keep popping up. It's like playing whack-a-mole. Hopefully, some of the SARS vaccines will have some effect on the newest strain, or at least speed production of a new vaccine.

[72gmc]

I think I'll switch from the happy birthday song (while washing hands) to the lumberjack song. All 4 verses, very clean hands.

[j44ke]

....

China is just a perfect breeding ground for these virus' to keep popping up. It's like playing whack-a-mole. Hopefully, some of the SARS vaccines will have some effect on the newest strain, or at least speed production of a new vaccine.

I read a book years ago - might have even been in college (1980's) - that said the inception site for new viral threats will be in areas where non-domesticated animals and humans are in closest proximity. At that time, it pointed at west & central Africa and the eating of bushmeat that has not been properly prepared. But rural (and not so rural) China, with its live-markets containing multitudes of animals, seems to fit the model this book laid out perhaps even better than a lot of African countries.

[Too Tall]

I don't think it will burn through the population much faster than SARS or MERS (both coronaviruses). COVID19 is a SARS causing virus (severe acute respiratory syndrome). Fortunately, we know much about the previous 2, so a world response to the latest outbreak should be quick. Genetically, SARS (which would probably be called COVID02 with today's naming system) and COVID19 are very similar.

Following proper PPE practices, and potentially wearing a mask in densely populated areas, are going to vastly increase someone's odds.

China is just a perfect breeding ground for these virus' to keep popping up. It's like playing whack-a-mole. Hopefully, some of the SARS vaccines will have some effect on the newest strain, or at least speed production of a new vaccine.

Will, that's something I've been digging for. If you can PM me or link here the genetics or other science papers telling me about immune response. Curious geek here.

[Will Neide]

I read a book years ago - might have even been in college (1980's) - that said the inception site for new viral threats will be in areas where non-domesticated animals and humans are in closest proximity. At that time, it pointed at west & central Africa and the eating of bushmeat that has not been properly prepared. But rural (and not so rural) China, with its live-markets containing multitudes of animals, seems to fit the model this book laid out perhaps even better than a lot of African countries.

The thing that might separate China from West and Central Africa is the movement of populations into and out of China on a daily basis. Central/Western Africa are certainly a hotbed (Ebola is scary), but there isn't as much international travel of people and goods.

[Too Tall]

The thing that might separate China from West and Central Africa is the movement of populations into and out of China on a daily basis. Central/Western Africa are certainly a hotbed (Ebola is scary), but there isn't as much international travel of people and goods.

Since you mention this. There are similarities with China's New Year's Holiday mass people movement and Hajj...you know vector analysis and stuff. I recall the NYTs today mentions suspension of Hajj pilgrims for time being.

Ebola was/is a different critter. The virus certainly is persistent but is stupid, it kills the hosts and affected populations are immediately isolated...immediately.

[deano]

Children seem to be immune for some reason.

Ha! This is good news. Did not realize that. Ms. Z. and I just looked at each and were like "We don't care if one of us dies."

[Will Neide]

Since you mention this. There are similarities with China's New Year's Holiday mass people movement and Hajj...you know vector analysis and stuff. I recall the NYTs today mentions suspension of Hajj pilgrims for time being.

Ebola was/is a different critter. The virus certainly is persistent but is stupid, it kills the hosts and affected populations are immediately isolated...immediately.

I think, just my own opinion without any research, the Chinese New Year was a catalyst to quickly move the virus, although I don't think the infection rates are any higher, or not much higher than SARS (SARS-CoV).

Ebola truly scares me. Corona types, not nearly as much.

I'll see what reputable papers I can round up regarding SARS/MERS/COVID19. I do know the full genetic sequence for COVID19 is available from the CDC. My wife's lab is working on an emergency PCR assay for it. The CDC recommended using SARS (SARS-CoV) as a positive control. SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV2 are pretty similar. I think they are all bat (the flying mammal) based.

Currently, no hospital based lab can identify COVID19 on our respiratory panels (PCR). You would come up negative. We pick up other Corona's, and a slew of other respiratory viruses.

What's your Mrs. take on this?

[Too Tall]

It would be imprudent for me to speak about that here Will. That said I know what you know eg not much.

Mrs. Too has been to Liberia multiple times, no direct patient contact just running the trials and teaching. She goes to heaven three times IMHFO.

[Will Neide]

It would be imprudent for me to speak about that here Will. That said I know what you know eg not much.

Mrs. Too has been to Liberia multiple times, no direct patient contact just running the trials and teaching. She goes to heaven three times IMHFO.

She is an incredible human for sure.

[defspace]

Ebola was/is a different critter. The virus certainly is persistent but is stupid, it kills the hosts and affected populations are immediately isolated...immediately.

I read Robot Check a few years ago. Worth a read, imo.

There was a chapter where the doc goes into some math comparing deaths in Liberia from ebola to deaths from measles at the same time. What I recall (of course, his delivery and expertise put me to shame) is that each Ebola infection leads to few subsequent infections, but the odds of dying from infection are very high. In contrast, each measles infection leads to many infections but the odds of death are very low. With the near total shut down of the Liberian health sector and the strong emphasis on Ebola isolation, he estimated that more people died from relatively unchecked measles in Liberia than died from Ebola in the epidemic period.