The Battle For Economic Primacy

[9tubes]

Q: is it not possible deregulation has contributed to democracy's decline alongside what you say has undermined democracy in its stead?

A: I think deregulation has contributed to democracy's decline, but we need to be careful about what we call deregulation, and I think it's not deregulation per se that affects democracy. Democracy is damaged in my view by whatever economic policies tilt the playing field to concentrate power and money, as concentrated power and money have a way of corrupting democratic officials.

To me, it's a waste of time talking about whether regulation is high or low, or more or less (whatever those mean). We have to look deeper. Any change in regulation assists someone relative to someone else.

[jclay]

I did not know this (though not terribly surprised); intro to the article linked at bottom:

Between 1993 and 2011 the Department of Justice Antitrust Division issued a trio of policy statements (two during the Clinton administration and one under Obama) regarding the sharing of information in the healthcare industry. These rules provided wiggle room around the Sherman Antitrust Act, which “sets forth the basic antitrust prohibition against contracts, combinations, and conspiracies in restraint of trade or commerce.”

And it wasn’t just in healthcare. The rules were interpreted to apply to all industries. To say it has been a disaster would be an understatement. Companies increasingly turned to data firms offering software that “exchanges information” at lightning speed with competitors in order to keep wages low and prices high – effectively creating national cartels.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023...k-through.html

And to close the loop I can go along with the general notion of #21 though definitions become critically important at this magnification. "Nation State", as I used it, was idealized; corporate $$ in politics and revolving doors into lucrative corporate second acts for politicians significantly (at least) meld the corporate and Nation State pot.

This Titanic is a nice boat; but what are all those big white thingies in the water...and when do we get to New York? Fire up the band maestro!

[bigbill]

I haven't looked at Naked Capitalism in a while. Ivfound the 2pm watercooler discussions to be thought provoking. The discussion about Biden's What does “you will not outlast us” even mean
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023...2-22-2023.html Russia is fighting a war of attrition, burning though people and equipment at an unsustainable level. Russia won't be able to rebuild their army and supply them with equipment for maybe a decade. They aren't set up to mass produce tanks, artillery, or aircraft, so their losses greatly exceed their capacity to replace.

But,... the US is not much better off. We can't continue to send arms to Ukraine and still be able to make war. Unless we ramp up production of artillery munitions, bombs, and equipment for the field, we will continue to weaken. Our opponents know this. What keeps our potential enemies at bay is the threat of overwhelming retaliation from the US. But, any retaliation starts the clock running on a quick victory or a drawn out conflict that we may not be able to support. Economically, the US would be hard pressed to increase military spending to rebuild our stockpiles while giving away weapons paid for in past budgets. The only way to rebuild is to spend tax dollars in the MIC while our infrastructure continues to lag well behind our goals to move away from fossil fuels. It's a big mess.

I taught a Cold War class last night at the Community College. We spent an insane amount of money to counter the Soviets, when much of the Communist Hoard's threat was hollow. I focused on submarines and how we were made to fear the threat of a commie missile sub off the US coast. The reality; Soviets were never able to have more than a handful of subs at sea at any one time. Congress hears about advanced Russian subs and approves funding to build new subs to counter the threat. The reality; the Russians might have 2-3 of their "advanced subs" which were already countered by 60-70 US subs of equal or superior technology.

[jclay]

We spent an insane amount of money to counter the Soviets, when much of the Communist Hoard's threat was hollow.

Still are (spending way too much on the MIC); country decades older; not a day wiser.

[thollandpe]

I taught a Cold War class last night at the Community College. We spent an insane amount of money to counter the Soviets, when much of the Communist Hoard's threat was hollow. I focused on submarines and how we were made to fear the threat of a commie missile sub off the US coast. The reality; Soviets were never able to have more than a handful of subs at sea at any one time. Congress hears about advanced Russian subs and approves funding to build new subs to counter the threat. The reality; the Russians might have 2-3 of their "advanced subs" which were already countered by 60-70 US subs of equal or superior technology.

I’d love to take one of your classes. Hope your students are enjoying it.

And if you ever find your way out here I’d offer a tour of some wild (and predictably expensive) Cold War infrastructure. Our mountain bike trails go by two similar examples to yours, only it’s Air Force and not Navy.

[bigbill]

I’d love to take one of your classes. Hope your students are enjoying it.

And if you ever find your way out here I’d offer a tour of some wild (and predictably expensive) Cold War infrastructure. Our mountain bike trails go by two similar examples to yours, only it’s Air Force and not Navy.

I'm somewhat of a guest lecturer for specific topics. My next topic is the Beale Wagon Road across northern Arizona. The railroad followed the wagon road, and Route 66 followed the railroad. I'm teaching a specific section (Ash Fork to Needles) because I only have two hours. I'm building a topic for the Northern Great Plains History Conference in September. I'm researching Black pioneers, specifically in western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming. Thriving communities in the early part of the Twentieth Century have vanished, unless you know where to look. For Empire, Wyoming, which is in Goshen County, there's no mention of the community, just the Mormons who settled the area. I'm still shopping for an online history Ph.D. that's not Liberty.

[j44ke]

I'm somewhat of a guest lecturer for specific topics. My next topic is the Beale Wagon Road across northern Arizona. The railroad followed the wagon road, and Route 66 followed the railroad. I'm teaching a specific section (Ash Fork to Needles) because I only have two hours. I'm building a topic for the Northern Great Plains History Conference in September. I'm researching Black pioneers, specifically in western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming. Thriving communities in the early part of the Twentieth Century have vanished, unless you know where to look. For Empire, Wyoming, which is in Goshen County, there's no mention of the community, just the Mormons who settled the area. I'm still shopping for an online history Ph.D. that's not Liberty.

There's a movie from the 70's called Buck and the Preacher that is about the westward expansion of black settlers post-Civil War. I think it is based on a book of fiction that was based on some historical fact.

[bigbill]

There's a movie from the 70's called Buck and the Preacher that is about the westward expansion of black settlers post-Civil War. I think it is based on a book of fiction that was based on some historical fact.

The problem with much of US History is who wrote it and why. The historiography is what I work on unraveling. On my "to do" list is the studying of Western art (Remington, Russell, and the Hudson Valley School) to compare the depicted versus actual event, and determine why the artist painted it. Much is Manifest Destiny and some is racist based. Hollywood depicted the west as it never existed and that is what people know.

[Mark Kelly]

Bill since you are here: I recently heard that there was a major report on unaccountable money lost in the US military system amounting to staggering sums, literally trillions of dollars. The report had the great misfortune to be delivered to the then Secretary of Defence on the 10th of September 2001.

Does this ring a bell? Is it a thing or a conspiracy theory?

[bigbill]

I have no knowledge of any report. On 9/10, I was stationed on the carrier Theodore Roosevelt and we deployed a week later. The only issue that impacted me in my career is the Fat Leonard scandal. In 2010, I was stationed on the carrier NIMITZ and we were on our way to Australia. I had hotel reservations and even a bike rental set up. Then, we were rerouted to Malaysia, which is nothing like Australia, but Leonard Marine had the port services contracts worth many millions. Fat Leonard had bribed US Naval officials to reroute ships to his ports in exchange for cash, hookers, concert tickets, and penthouse hotel rooms.

[Caleb Evenson]

To me, it's a waste of time talking about whether regulation is high or low, or more or less (whatever those mean). We have to look deeper. Any change in regulation assists someone relative to someone else.

I agree. Compiling every instance of enacting or removing a regulation would give us an objective balance between the two actions, but without tying specific people and groups with agency to each instance, that would still tell us nothing of the utility and consequences of any instance or that balance, and given the complexity in our society and governance across time, an overwhelming trend between those with agency, beneficiaries, and victims seems unlikely.

They aren't set up to mass produce tanks, artillery, or aircraft, so their losses greatly exceed their capacity to replace.

Even if they were, that might not much help if what I've heard is true. By now I forget if I heard it from the American Prestige podcast or the What a Hell of a Way to Die podcast, but they mentioned corruption in Russian arms manufacturing affecting the quality of their arms. One example they gave is a tank design placing ammo inside the turret's pivot, creating an explosive weak spot the Ukrainians have exploited. Any light to shed on that element of their manufacturing?

The whole 2016 presidential campaign had me feeling like everyone was going insane as my social media feeds were full of people leaning both left and right to varying degrees falling for all sorts of things I thought were obvious malicious propaganda. Despite expecting Trump to win, the day after the 2016 election had me depressed and barely able to speak. To ease my bewilderment I decided to revise my understanding of US history, starting from the country's founding, through the lenses of propaganda, militarism, and and covert operations. For over a year I frequently spent anywhere from 4-8 hours after work at that endeavor.

What I learned of the Cold War was among the most depressing for the disproportionate nature of the US effort in that long and global conflict. The success by which some US people convinced the world of a nonexistent monolithic communist plot to take over the globe while they themselves made every effort to ensure capitalism would win out everywhere no matter the cost (empowering dictators, accepting civilian deaths, etc) is still hard to accept. But maybe I've not carefully enough scrutinized some things. Have you learned much of the CIA's Operation Mockingbird, and if so, do you have any reason to believe it didn't happen or that any particular account(s) of it are inaccurate?

The historiography is what I work on unraveling.

For the first time tonight I listened to the podcast "Tech Won't Save Us", particularly an episode featuring Malcom Harris, an author who wrote a book on the history of Silicon Valley called "Palo Alto: A History of California, Capitalism, and the World". At least twice he said "historiography", and he did a great job tearing up the glossy narratives Silicon Valley has peddled. For example, I learned that Xerox was an early investor in Apple, since Apple could make personal machines at a cheaper price...thanks largely to immigrants, some refugees, building those machines in home basements throughout the Bay Area. Just thought you might be interested given your penchant for unraveling historiography.

Does this ring a bell? Is it a thing or a conspiracy theory?

Your comment reminds me of various stories I've come across in recent years thanks to the Pentagon finally facing and failing audits, but I too have yet to feel confident in any claiming trillions unaccounted for (though if evidence comes out, I won't be surprised). Would love for anyone else in the know to chime in on this.

[bigbill]

I agree. Compiling every instance of enacting or removing a regulation would give us an objective balance between the two actions, but without tying specific people and groups with agency to each instance, that would still tell us nothing of the utility and consequences of any instance or that balance, and given the complexity in our society and governance across time, an overwhelming trend between those with agency, beneficiaries, and victims seems unlikely.



Even if they were, that might not much help if what I've heard is true. By now I forget if I heard it from the American Prestige podcast or the What a Hell of a Way to Die podcast, but they mentioned corruption in Russian arms manufacturing affecting the quality of their arms. One example they gave is a tank design placing ammo inside the turret's pivot, creating an explosive weak spot the Ukrainians have exploited. Any light to shed on that element of their manufacturing?

The whole 2016 presidential campaign had me feeling like everyone was going insane as my social media feeds were full of people leaning both left and right to varying degrees falling for all sorts of things I thought were obvious malicious propaganda. Despite expecting Trump to win, the day after the 2016 election had me depressed and barely able to speak. To ease my bewilderment I decided to revise my understanding of US history, starting from the country's founding, through the lenses of propaganda, militarism, and and covert operations. For over a year I frequently spent anywhere from 4-8 hours after work at that endeavor.

What I learned of the Cold War was among the most depressing for the disproportionate nature of the US effort in that long and global conflict. The success by which some US people convinced the world of a nonexistent monolithic communist plot to take over the globe while they themselves made every effort to ensure capitalism would win out everywhere no matter the cost (empowering dictators, accepting civilian deaths, etc) is still hard to accept. But maybe I've not carefully enough scrutinized some things. Have you learned much of the CIA's Operation Mockingbird, and if so, do you have any reason to believe it didn't happen or that any particular account(s) of it are inaccurate?



For the first time tonight I listened to the podcast "Tech Won't Save Us", particularly an episode featuring Malcom Harris, an author who wrote a book on the history of Silicon Valley called "Palo Alto: A History of California, Capitalism, and the World". At least twice he said "historiography", and he did a great job tearing up the glossy narratives Silicon Valley has peddled. For example, I learned that Xerox was an early investor in Apple, since Apple could make personal machines at a cheaper price...thanks largely to immigrants, some refugees, building those machines in home basements throughout the Bay Area. Just thought you might be interested given your penchant for unraveling historiography.



Your comment reminds me of various stories I've come across in recent years thanks to the Pentagon finally facing and failing audits, but I too have yet to feel confident in any claiming trillions unaccounted for (though if evidence comes out, I won't be surprised). Would love for anyone else in the know to chime in on this.

There's a lot to unpack here. I'm not a regulations guy so I'll let someone else do that. The entire Russian campaign was based on lies and misinformation fed to Putin. As a former KGB agent, I would have thought he'd exploit contacts to confirm or deny what his generals, admirals, and defense industry guys were telling him. In the past decades, Russia has been like a car dealer with their shiniest weapons featured in the showroom in hope of selling them for hard currency. The Russian dealer has a few dozen Corvettes and acres of AMC Pacers. The invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated just how poorly the Russian weapons perform. A battlefield littered with tanks separated from its turrets is not good for sales. The US knew the weak points on Russian tanks because other than drive train and weapons, they haven't changed in many decades.

For comments about propaganda and the Cold War, we did it. I don't think it was necessarily a bad thing. Battles are fought with many different weapons including public opinion. Social media has made traditional methods mostly obsolete, but the principle of "the first liar wins," is still king. If you can spread disinformation before your target can tell their story, then your opponent is spending money and energy to first disprove the lie, before they can make their case. History is full of examples. My master's thesis examined the Confederate Lost Cause and how easily the alternate version of history was entrenched into US culture.

As a culture, we're too lazy to fact check. Politicians and business executives know they can say something false and have a decent chance of getting away with it. As an example, my son graduated from Annapolis last May. The President spoke at the graduation and claimed that he had been offered an appointment to the Naval Academy but turned it down. I know he was trying to portray himself as "one of the guys," but it was all false. A fact check would have exposed it all as falsehoods. But, the media was willing to let it slide. Agendas win out over truth.

For Historiography, I mostly work in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. IMO, the current culture was shaped by events between the Revolutionary War and the passage of the Civil Rights Act. Government sanctioned racism and Manifest Destiny shaped the US. I have a list of rabbit holes to explore. My current interest is the plight of Black Pioneers on the Great Plains, specifically eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. The township of Empire, WY, (no longer exists) was an African American community that eventually ended due to racism. The county museum has no mention of their plight, just that of Mormon settlers who arrived later. The study of Historiography uncovers truths and makes sure the story is complete. History isn't necessarily wrong, there's just a lot that was left out.

[Scott G.]

[snip] Hollywood depicted the west as it never existed and that is what people know.

As John Ford told us in "The Man who shot Liberty Valance"

(Senator being interviewed) Ransom Stoddard : You're not going to use the story, Mr. Scott?

(newspaperman) Maxwell Scott : No, sir. This is the West, sir. When the legend becomes fact, print the legend.

[vertical_doug]

Bill since you are here: I recently heard that there was a major report on unaccountable money lost in the US military system amounting to staggering sums, literally trillions of dollars. The report had the great misfortune to be delivered to the then Secretary of Defence on the 10th of September 2001.

Does this ring a bell? Is it a thing or a conspiracy theory?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN13V08B

the devil is in the details. I think the report you mention is one of those urban legends, but waste is real. It is just probably more mundane than trillions of dollars of unaccounted spending. The reality is more like billions of dollars yearly in paying for overpriced services and items like hammers and toilet seats. . . But over 20 years, 50 billion can be 1 trillion in real savings.

[bigbill]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN13V08B

the devil is in the details. I think the report you mention is one of those urban legends, but waste is real. It is just probably more mundane than trillions of dollars of unaccounted spending. The reality is more like billions of dollars yearly in paying for overpriced services and items like hammers and toilet seats. . . But over 20 years, 50 billion can be 1 trillion in real savings.

The military is top heavy because we keep adding programs. In World War 2, the Navy had over 7600 combatant ships. The Navy currently has fewer than 300 (another 100 or so reserve ships). We had around 230 admirals in world war 2, we have about two dozen fewer today. 7600 ships versus 300ish. We also have retention issues because of the high operation tempo. If you go back to world war 2, the reason for the Japanese defeat at Midway was leadership and the material condition of their carriers. The Japanese carriers at Midway had essentially been at sea since Pearl Harbor. We do the same thing now with our ships because we made them overly complex, beyond the sailor's ability to maintain, so if they're always deployed, broken stuff stays that way.

For costs, we are spending for a worst case war. We up the ante with more technology to counter technology. F-35s are cool, but they cost three times as much to operate as a Super Hornet. A Super Hornet with highly trained pilots, is a match for almost any aircraft in the world. Every aircraft in our inventory doesn't need to next-gen. But it all comes down to the sales pitch of the MIC and how much Congress will fund, especially if the tech is manufactured in home states. There's a big push to retire all the A-10s, and I get it, they only work where we have air superiority. If we sent them to Ukraine, the mystique would quickly gone because they'd be shot down. But, populist politicians want to keep them because they have a larger than life reputation.

For expensive parts, sometimes the cost is due to the specialization required to make just a few parts. Those ten thousand dollar wrenches would be much cheaper if we bought more than a few dozen. I used to run the submarine repair facility in Pearl Harbor. Seawater valves are $40K or more because of the certification and materials. Sonar hydrophones in 2007 each cost as much as a Honda Accord. I actually had a spreadsheet that I'd use to brief admirals that reflected costs in units of Honda cars.

[gregl]

I really appreciate bigbill's perspective from an operational point of view. I see some of these same challenges from the engineering and procurement side of DoD support. I've provided input to several Level of Repair Analysis (LORA) studies for military electronic systems. Due to the long distances involved in recent conflicts (Afghanistan and Iraq) as well as the use of miltary cargo planes to provide delivery (C-130s, C-17s, and C-5s are unbelievably expensive to operate), parts that would normally be repaired at a US depot were/are instead scrapped since the cost to ship was higher than the cost to replace. This contributes to the legend of "$500 hammers". It's not just the cost to purchase a widget, it's also the cost to sustain/repair/replace the widget that drives military budgets (and the taxpayer tempers...) to stratospheric levels.

Greg

[bigbill]

I really appreciate bigbill's perspective from an operational point of view. I see some of these same challenges from the engineering and procurement side of DoD support. I've provided input to several Level of Repair Analysis (LORA) studies for military electronic systems. Due to the long distances involved in recent conflicts (Afghanistan and Iraq) as well as the use of miltary cargo planes to provide delivery (C-130s, C-17s, and C-5s are unbelievably expensive to operate), parts that would normally be repaired at a US depot were/are instead scrapped since the cost to ship was higher than the cost to replace. This contributes to the legend of "$500 hammers". It's not just the cost to purchase a widget, it's also the cost to sustain/repair/replace the widget that drives military budgets (and the taxpayer tempers...) to stratospheric levels.

Greg

When I did the project in Sardinia to turn the NATO base over to the Italians, we left a enormous barge crane, some LSTs, and a barge with a six man hyperbaric chamber. It would have been too expensive to move them back to the US and the closest base in Gaeta didn't want them. The Italian Navy took the chamber, they'll use it. I think the crane barge ended up being sold to an Italian shipyard. We did pick up a bunch of stuff in Rota, Spain on the way back and dropped it in Norfolk, but it was all in containers.

[mjbabcock]

I'm still shopping for an online history Ph.D. that's not Liberty.

Make some calls to scholars you want to study under. The majority of a terminal degree are engaged in your own research. This leaves the first year or two of courses…and it all runs through your advisor. If you catch one that gets who you are and trusts your intentions, then they may greenlight a largely online endeavor.

[bigbill]

Make some calls to scholars you want to study under. The majority of a terminal degree are engaged in your own research. This leaves the first year or two of courses…and it all runs through your advisor. If you catch one that gets who you are and trusts your intentions, then they may greenlight a largely online endeavor.

I have some peers that are working through University of Stirling (Scotland) and King's College. GI Bill will pay for foreign colleges but not online so I need to figure that out. I'm not taking classes, I'd be working under an advisor and writing my dissertation. I want the pursue the research path and have no desire to be a professor, student teach, or take a foreign language. I teach at the Community College.

[Mark Kelly]

The military is top heavy because we keep adding programs. In World War 2, the Navy had over 7600 combatant ships. The Navy currently has fewer than 300 (another 100 or so reserve ships). We had around 230 admirals in world war 2, we have about two dozen fewer today. 7600 ships versus 300ish.

Literally the origin of Parkinson's Law C. Northcote Parkinson was a naval historian who wrote an essay in The Economist outlining how the growth in administration, the Admiralty, was decoupled from the size of the administered, the Royal Navy. The generalisation is that (administrative) work expands to fill the available space.

Seawater valves are $40K or more because of the certification and materials. Sonar hydrophones in 2007 each cost as much as a Honda Accord. I actually had a spreadsheet that I'd use to brief admirals that reflected costs in units of Honda cars.

That's not just the military, either. I worked for a while as a design engineer for a company that installed specialist water purification for things such as pharmaceutical plants. We only used equipment from ultra reputable suppliers such as Yokogawa, probably the world's pre-eminent supplier of industrial automation and control equipment, but everything had to be double checked. To comply with specification, each and every part sourced from said company had to be certified by a third party laboratory who basically signed off that Yokogawa weren't lying when they said the part was made from 316 stainless. Often the certification cost as much as the part did.