Covid19

[jclay]

Is that a joke?? We got around to it early....which "it"?

I suggest reading this: Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo - Medium

The infected population is likely a heck of a lot larger than we realize and I don't see the USA doing much about it. If the thesis of the article is correct, and it certainly seems a rational treatment to me, we are fiddle farting around when we could be taking aggressive action that is proven to flatten the curve. It looks to me like our curve origin is merely temporally shifted to the right.

I'll be happy to be found incorrect. We'll know in a week or three.

Sorry about the political diversion. Have you guys read the article I linked? Whatever it is that we (as in individually, as a locale, a university, a state or a nation) need to be doing, we need to be doing now. It sounds dramatic but based on the fundamentals I think it's warranted. It also sounds like some locales are attempting it though I don't know of much going on here, that way. We're all smart enough to follow the article's logic, many of us have had at least a fair bit of science and math and understand how these curves work and apply to population growth and that sort of thing; one doesn't know what one doesn't know but I don't see how the methodology used to estimate the actual number of infections can be fundamentally flawed. The constants won't be spot on, might be high, might be low but you can alter the numbers and see that there still have to be a heck of a lot more cases than have been confirmed. We know how unhindered contagion population growth behaves, the curve that describes the growth. Add to that the fact that we aren't, as best I can tell, doing anything like the sort of mass testing or movement restriction that is so obviously needed to bend the curve down and put the lid on this thing quickly.

If you haven't read the article you need to regardless of whether or not your experience base involves this kind of math and analysis. China was able to flatten the curve only with an enormous effort involving severe restriction of movement and providing all of the logistical support necessary to those affected. We (I, you, the country) need to learn from them.

At our house we've got easily a month of food on hand and I'm not going to be around others (eating out, shopping, whatever) until real world data and predictive models demonstrate that it's reasonable to resume normal life. I'm having a little trouble getting my wife to subscribe to that level of response right now; she has one or two lunches with the girls through the WE and I'm trying to not start a fight, but come Sunday I'm going lobby persuasively for her to cease and desist; I'm pretty sure she'll comply at that point.

I suggest that others configure your lives, as much as is possible given your realities, so that you minimize contact with others and when it can't be avoided protect yourselves as best you can manage. This isn't the flu.

Experts predict high infection numbers from COVID-19 if precautions aren't taken

Nebraska State Senators were briefed on the UNMC's “Best Guess Epidemiology" numbers for the coronavirus on Tuesday morning.

Lincoln Lancaster County Health Director Pat Lopez presented lawmakers with the numbers provided by UNMC, which estimates 96 million people could be infected with the virus in the United States resulting in 480,000 deaths in America. UNMC also estimates there could be 4.8 million hospital admissions in the U.S. with 1.9 million people being sent to the Intensive Care Unit.

For comparison, so far this flu season, the Center for Disease Control reports that in America there have been 34 million flu illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations, and 20,000 deaths from influenza.

[sk_tle]

I am flying to Mexico through Panama sunday. As i arrive I travel by bus another 3 hours up north to Queretaro, then by car to San Miguel Allende. On the same day. I will go see my young son because we miss each other too much. I won´t back down but although Mexico is slow in corvid numbers i am seriously worried.

well, I know a few mexican girls who did some trip around europe that ended in spain after visiting Paris and, well, tasted some of the locals. They came back last weekend and I got news and one of them wasn't feeling well today.

3 among who f**k knows how many tourists/travelers. It is only time before it gets worse there.

[jclay]

I am flying to Mexico through Panama sunday. As i arrive I travel by bus another 3 hours up north to Queretaro, then by car to San Miguel Allende. On the same day. I will go see my young son because we miss each other too much. I won´t back down but although Mexico is slow in corvid numbers i am seriously worried.

You'll be in close contact with, and breathing the same air respired by, a lot of peeps during the trip and that exposes him, and you, to an increased risk of contraction. I know that you know but it might be worth rethinking/delaying things.

[colker]

My wife was supposed to be in Mexico City for two weeks starting last Wednesday. Her firm disallowed all non-client business trips so that shut down the trip, but before that went into effect, she was preparing to cancel because she didn't want to get stuck in quarantine at her conference hotel because someone else got sick.

San Miguel de Allende is beautiful. I've been birdwatching in the Sierra Gorda National Park to the east. Biosfera. But that was a long time ago.

I don't know what to recommend. Just keep clean, stay hydrated (elevation 6234',) and don't get over-tired.

Oohh... i have been to the Sierra Gorda. Beautifull and dry as a bone. I keep driving through the mountains and suddenly i reach a subtropical climate, a jungle where there is a city called Las Pozas and a crazy surrealist garden built by an english poet. Mexico is special.

[colker]

You'll be in close contact with, and breathing the same air respired by, a lot of peeps during the trip and that exposes him, and you, to an increased risk of contraction. I know that you know but it might be worth rethinking/delaying things.

I will take all possible precautions. It´s been months i don´t see him and things will get worse in the next couple months.

[Walter Sobchak]

Disneyland closed.

[deano]

Disneyland closed.

Shit. The day is spoiled.

[Will Neide]

Sorry about the political diversion. Have you guys read the article I linked? Whatever it is that we (as in individually, as a locale, a university, a state or a nation) need to be doing, we need to be doing now. It sounds dramatic but based on the fundamentals I think it's warranted. It also sounds like some locales are attempting it though I don't know of much going on here, that way. We're all smart enough to follow the article's logic, many of us have had at least a fair bit of science and math and understand how these curves work and apply to population growth and that sort of thing; one doesn't know what one doesn't know but I don't see how the methodology used to estimate the actual number of infections can be fundamentally flawed. The constants won't be spot on, might be high, might be low but you can alter the numbers and see that there still have to be a heck of a lot more cases than have been confirmed. We know how unhindered contagion population growth behaves, the curve that describes the growth. Add to that the fact that we aren't, as best I can tell, doing anything like the sort of mass testing or movement restriction that is so obviously needed to bend the curve down and put the lid on this thing quickly.

If you haven't read the article you need to regardless of whether or not your experience base involves this kind of math and analysis. China was able to flatten the curve only with an enormous effort involving severe restriction of movement and providing all of the logistical support necessary to those affected. We (I, you, the country) need to learn from them.

At our house we've got easily a month of food on hand and I'm not going to be around others (eating out, shopping, whatever) until real world data and predictive models demonstrate that it's reasonable to resume normal life. I'm having a little trouble getting my wife to subscribe to that level of response right now; she has one or two lunches with the girls through the WE and I'm trying to not start a fight, but come Sunday I'm going lobby persuasively for her to cease and desist; I'm pretty sure she'll comply at that point.

I suggest that others configure your lives, as much as is possible given your realities, so that you minimize contact with others and when it can't be avoided protect yourselves as best you can manage. This isn't the flu.

Experts predict high infection numbers from COVID-19 if precautions aren't taken

Nebraska State Senators were briefed on the UNMC's “Best Guess Epidemiology" numbers for the coronavirus on Tuesday morning.

Lincoln Lancaster County Health Director Pat Lopez presented lawmakers with the numbers provided by UNMC, which estimates 96 million people could be infected with the virus in the United States resulting in 480,000 deaths in America. UNMC also estimates there could be 4.8 million hospital admissions in the U.S. with 1.9 million people being sent to the Intensive Care Unit.

For comparison, so far this flu season, the Center for Disease Control reports that in America there have been 34 million flu illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations, and 20,000 deaths from influenza.

Take a breath. Close the computer. Wash your hands. Please don’t contribute to the hysteria. Yes, COVID19 is here. Yes, it is serious. Yes, we have been planning. There is so much going on behind the scenes and updates hourly. No one in the medical field is sitting idly. We are preparing, running drills, validating more and more assays daily, and testing disaster protocols of all sorts.

[jclay]

Take a breath. Close the computer. Wash your hands. Please don’t contribute to the hysteria. Yes, COVID19 is here. Yes, it is serious. Yes, we have been planning. There is so much going on behind the scenes and updates hourly. No one in the medical field is sitting idly. We are preparing, running drills, validating more and more assays daily, and testing disaster protocols of all sorts.

Understanding the mathematics and ramifications of this isn't hysteria; it's central to plotting an effective course of action whether it be by the individual or larger societal units.

If there are flaws in the fundamental logic or analytical treatments presented in the articles I linked I'd be most interested to know what they are. I find the whole thing, technically, rather fascinating.

[thollandpe]

Yes, COVID19 is here. Yes, it is serious. Yes, we have been planning. There is so much going on behind the scenes and updates hourly. No one in the medical field is sitting idly. We are preparing, running drills, validating more and more assays daily, and testing disaster protocols of all sorts.

Where are the test kits, and what is preventing more people from being tested?

[Will Neide]

Understanding the mathematics and ramifications of this isn't hysteria; it's central to plotting an effective course of action whether it be by the individual or larger societal units.

If there are flaws in the fundamental logic or analytical treatments presented in the articles I linked I'd be most interested to know what they are. I find the whole thing, technically, rather fascinating.

I’m sure the math is sound. What’s your course of action? How does this help you beyond what has already been recommended by the CDC?

[Will Neide]

Where are the test kits, and what is preventing more people from being tested?

Test kits can be purchased from the CDC. It is a RT-PCR kit. With that said, not all labs are using the CDC kits because some have created their own based on the genetic sequence released by the CDC awhile ago. In addition, many commercial platforms are developing kits quickly to get out to hospital based labs. Again, all RT-PCR. Many labs have those kits in their hands now. Between the CDC kits, lab developed tests, and now the commercially available kits, there is quite a bit of availability. Many reference labs (Quest, Labcorp, ARUP) are now offering the test as well.

What is preventing people from being tested is that the DOH for many states (I’m in Pa) and CDC have guidelines for who should be tested. For starters, they need to be negative on a respiratory panel to rule out all the common seasonal pathogens. I’m not sure if a simple negative on a single rapid flu test would meet the requirements (I haven’t checked on that part). If you meet all the symptoms and are negative on a respiratory panel, the DOH or CDC will test for COVID19. If the CDC or DOH do the testing, the test is free to the patient. Hospitals can’t bill for that testing. Keep in mind the initial respiratory panel is not free. There are talks at the legislative level about this conundrum.

If your Dr. suspects you have COVID19, but you don’t have all the required CDC symptoms, he/she can still order the test to be performed at either a reference lab or at the hospital if they provide the testing. That will be charged to your insurance. I don’t know the cost since it varies from institution and insurance.

These things are changing hourly.

[jclay]

I’m sure the math is sound. What’s your course of action? How does this help you beyond what has already been recommended by the CDC?

I didn't post the information for my aid but rather to impress on others that, 1) the actual number of cases is almost certainly orders of magnitude higher than the number of confirmed cases (which is what I'm seeing reported pretty much everywhere and makes the problem appear much smaller than it actually is) and that, 2) the need for as much isolation as practicable, starting immediately (not waiting until things get worse), will be personally prudent and generally necessary to suppress the typical exponential growth curve realized by unhindered contagion reproduction (in areas that are not sparsely populated). Aside from being academically interesting, having folks aware of and governed by those realities assists all of us.

At this point my course of action is pretty stringent sequestration and the recommended hygiene for the immediate term.

[vertical_doug]

Test kits can be purchased from the CDC. It is a RT-PCR kit. With that said, not all labs are using the CDC kits because some have created their own based on the genetic sequence released by the CDC awhile ago. In addition, many commercial platforms are developing kits quickly to get out to hospital based labs. Again, all RT-PCR. Many labs have those kits in their hands now. Between the CDC kits, lab developed tests, and now the commercially available kits, there is quite a bit of availability. Many reference labs (Quest, Labcorp, ARUP) are now offering the test as well.

What is preventing people from being tested is that the DOH for many states (I’m in Pa) and CDC have guidelines for who should be tested. For starters, they need to be negative on a respiratory panel to rule out all the common seasonal pathogens. I’m not sure if a simple negative on a single rapid flu test would meet the requirements (I haven’t checked on that part). If you meet all the symptoms and are negative on a respiratory panel, the DOH or CDC will test for COVID19. If the CDC or DOH do the testing, the test is free to the patient. Hospitals can’t bill for that testing. Keep in mind the initial respiratory panel is not free. There are talks at the legislative level about this conundrum.

If your Dr. suspects you have COVID19, but you don’t have all the required CDC symptoms, he/she can still order the test to be performed at either a reference lab or at the hospital if they provide the testing. That will be charged to your insurance. I don’t know the cost since it varies from institution and insurance.

These things are changing hourly.

That's why the best fiscal response the gov can make is just to underwrite the testing. It's a big number, but much more cost effective than letting this thing run and then doing a shovel ready fiscal stimulus plan to build roads and bridges to restart the economy.

I think the House plan is along these lines, but the Senate is balking. I am not sure if the President can declare a national emergency and mandate this. It's about the smartest thing he can do. You change the conversation from everyone wanting a test can get a test, to anyone needing to be tested, will be tested.

I know easier said than done. But it is the way South Korea and Taiwan are tackling this. It seems to be working to slow the spread.

[vertical_doug]

The UK has currently tested 30,000 people of which 600 have tested positive. They have capacity to test 2,000 a day so NHS has moved to mitigation since they cannot test enough people. New advice is if you have a cough or fever to self isolate for 7 days. If you worsen, call 111.

The politicians have been really good here on copying Churchhill's wartime speeches. "We are all in this together so everyone must do their part." I think Boris has been brilliant here. They are also dealing with trying to manage people expectations by not sugar coating it as this will be many weeks as opposed to saying it is contained and will be over quickly.

I think this is a takeaway versus the US. The WH has been sugar coating so people move into the government is lying mode which just worsens the situation. When everything is fake news, you lose credibility. You need credibility in this situation.

Yesterday, this is what Johnson did:

"Speaking after an emergency Cobra meeting, Mr Johnson said: "Some people compare it to seasonal flu, alas that is not right. Owing to the lack of immunity, this disease is more dangerous.

"It is going to spread further and I must level with you, I must level with the British public, many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time.""

If you treat people like adults, they act like adults.


(Some of this is possible because of the NHS. But the NHS also has its own set of problems so national health is not necessarily better off than US system, there are shortages. There is an acute shortage of beds particularly in Scotland)

[sk_tle]

My office just setup some yoga at home session with an instructor correcting your poses. That is really nice.

[guido]

snip...
The WH has been sugar coating so people move into the government is lying mode which just worsens the situation. When everything is fake news, you lose credibility. You need credibility in this situation.

Should have thought about that 3 years ago...

[vertical_doug]

Should have thought about that 3 years ago...

You reap what you sow.

[guido]

You reap what you sow.

If only we could count on that...

[guido]

Coronavirus and age: Why Covid-19 is so dangerous for older adults - Vox