Expect to get COVID19 in the next 365 days
Do not expect to get COVID19 in the next 365 days
Got it
Tested positive for antibodies
In my neck of the woods, a step in the right direction, methinks.
National Security Council decides on tough measures to tackle COVID-19 | VRT NWS: news
Chikashi Miyamoto
I’m sure this is conspiracy theory splooge content but I was talking to a friend last night and he mentioned the possibility of a medical grade biological weapon leaking and causing something like this. That’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility and would be harrowing to face something that was designed to be hard to stop.
What are people in the US doing are they outside and out and about? I’m about to go for a ride but Barcelona is trucking along at about 1/3 its usual rhythm. Today is the first day of mandatory school closures and I went to the gym this morning. Not surprisingly it was virtually empty.
Your response seems to contradict what others are experiencing. In California the governor said Thursday that they had tested only 1800 people and had 8000 test kits but the kits were incomplete. "I continue to reinforce the tests are not complete, kits all do not include re-agents, chemicals, solutions that are components."
Also on Thursday, the governor of Massachusetts (a Republican and former healthcare CEO) said we could test 5000 people but "We need much more testing capability, and we need the federal government to help us get there." He was asking for the feds to authorize more labs to run the test, because only the state lab could at that point.
Dr. Anthony Fauci from the NIH said "The system is not really geared to what we need right now. That is a failing. It is a failing, let's admit it."
Sick People Across the U.S. Say They Are Being Denied the Coronavirus Test
Fake news?
Last edited by thollandpe; 03-13-2020 at 09:18 AM.
Trod Harland, Pickle Expediter
Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced. — James Baldwin
I'm wondering whether to go on tomorrow's regular group ride. Right now I'm leaning solo.
As for the splooge content, nothing anymore is outside the realm of possibility but inasmuch as the only person I have heard mentioning this is my brother in law, who is a hardcore Trumper and fervent believer in many, many conspiracy theories, I'm inclined to believe the other theory currently circulating (ie, non-human animal to human animal transmission). Still, my bro in law is a board certified MD who is always right about everything. Always. So there's that data point as well, and he is adamant that a weapons lab somewhere in Wuhan province is responsible for this.
If the choice is between a conspiracy and a fuck up, put your money on the fuck up.
Mark Kelly
King, Pierce, and Snohomish county have closed all schools (public and private) as of next Tuesday through April 24. Many have chosen to close immediately. Sports programs are postponing everything. Pools are closed.
Not sure what my 6-year-old is going to be doing for the next 6 weeks, but I'm fine with keeping her away from the petri dish for a while.
DT
http://www.mjolnircycles.com/
Some are born to move the world to live their fantasies...
"the fun outweighs the suck, and the suck hasn't killed me yet." -- chasea
"Sometimes, as good as it feels to speak out, silence is the only way to rise above the morass. The high road is generally a quiet route." -- echelon_john
Morning report from Italy.
Sorry to respond after having only skimmed your note, but I may not get back to it for a few hours.
1. My knee-jerk response to your last note is exactly what you've decided: better to stay where you have (mostly) enforceable physical separation from everyone else and adequate storage space. Moreover, I don't think the economic instability this pandemic unleashes will settle down for quite a while (measured in many months at a minimum). Thus, standing pat seems like a good choice all 'round.
2. You may know, but just in case: contrary to reports I was hearing only 3-4 days ago, it appears the now prevailing epedemological opinion is that Covid-19 carriers are most infectious BEFORE they manifest symptoms. Latest estimates are that the pre-symptom period accounts for 40-80% of their transmission capacity. I don't have a citation at hand, but based on what I saw yesterday, it shouldn't be hard to find, unless they've changed their mind again.
3. An interview yesterday with an ICU manager in Bergamo (city with the worst current rate of new infection in Lombardy) says he's intubated a surprising number of younger folks (typ. 30s-40s y.o. and without major health issues). It's not just us old codgers who are getting severe lung complications. Moreover, kids may be effective carriers even if they seldom (but not never) show symptoms.
4. Haven't heard this asserted in the last 4-5 days, but earlier it was widely stated that the primary tests for Covid-19 (nasal or throat swap) do NOT show positive for non-symptomatic infectees.
Bottom line: there is no way to know if someone is a carrier, even if they test negative. The ONLY current effective protection is rigid social distancing and paranoid levels of hand/face hygiene.
Unless a bunch of R governors go and mug Trump (or he winds up in an ICU on an artificial respirator, thanks to hobnobbing last weekend with Bolsonaro and his Covid-19 positive press aide), it's gonna look far worse in the US by mid-April than it is now in Italy.
Buon divertimento,
Bill
That weapons grade contagion thing has been debunked long ago.
NYC is relatively quiet. However there are still jackhammers tearing up the street to repair our ancient city’s water and sewage lines. Lots of people going to work. One thing that is missing - Asian tourists. Completely different look to sidewalk traffic. Also not so many people on the subways. Everyone seems generally to be obeying the “best practices” advice.
However yesterday evening at the same time as the mayor’s declaration of a state of emergency for the city, someone started sending out mass messages to the effect that NYPD was going to shut down the city. Some were just “My friend said...” but others had the look of official communications. News outlets were quick to confirm the messages were fraudulent, but it created some panic at the grocery shops.
This morning I see cars stopping at neighboring buildings to pick up bags and family members to (I assume) go elsewhere outside the city. We are leaving this afternoon. I feel like we have a week or two before the situation calms down a bit. Meanwhile I’d like some fresh air and trees.
Last edited by j44ke; 03-13-2020 at 10:20 AM.
"As an homage to the EPOdays of yore- I'd find the world's last remaining pair of 40cm ergonomic drop bars.....i think everyone who ever liked those handlebars in that shape and in that width is either dead of a drug overdose, works in the Schaerbeek mattress factory now and weighs 300 pounds or is Dr. Davey Bruylandts...who for all I know is doing both of those things." - Jerk
It's hard to separate facts/actual capabilities from marketing hype. My organization is bragging wherever it can that we can do automated testing, we're helping the government yada, yada. Behind the scenes, it seems like we can only complete 90 tests a day. They don't mention that in the media blasts.
My perception is that people in the NY 'burbs are starting to lose their (feces). A bunch of public school closings were announced yesterday. I first heard from my kids who texted me from school! And now everyone is looking for a mask! My sister in law called to see if I could sneak some out of the hospital.
Me: "Why do you need masks if schools are closed, you're not going to work...you should be staying indoors as a family?"
Them: "we just want to be safe"
PSA for the day: unless a medical professional told you to wear a mask, you don't need a mask. The OTC masks don't protect you from this stuff, and re-breathing your own CO2 and slop isn't healthy either. We need the masks in the hospitals and clinics!!! As of last night, my supplier was back ordered until 7/11.
And as for Fauci, who I generally admire, I think he's borderline hysterical at this point. How can you call it a failing (in public) when there was (a) no reason to think this would happen until it happened (b) we had relatively little time to ramp up production of valid and reliable test kits? I'm all for placing blame when blame is due, but it's not helpful at this point. We have what we have and we should be looking forward, not backward. You dont solve problems by looking in the rear view mirror.
My wife smartly suggested that the slow procession of cars picking up luggage is most likely parents collecting college kids, and that seems to be the case. We have a couple buildings on our block with rental apartments often rented by university students. Or rented by their parents for university students. Not cheap rentals.
It's not necessarily contradicting, but it's also dumbed down for media and general populace consumptions. And like I said, things are changing hourly. You are relying on a governor to relay a message about a complex process to a mass of people that can't even spell "reagent." The term "kit" is even simplified for ease of reporting. There is far more to it than that. We say kit because it's palatable to the general populace. The governor doesn't know what a kit is.
I can't directly speak for state labs (as in the state lab for each state) but they are somewhat limited in their ability to test in large volumes. They will ultimately rely on larger hospitals to help with the lifting.
There is a lot to be learned from this and it is by no means perfect, but I think "failing" is quite exaggerative.
Test or no test, continue to practice precautions recommended by the CDC.
I have arrived at the time of year when I normally ramp up my weekly mileage to prepare for some summer and fall events. You are likely enjoying the same mileage ascent. Now I'm not so sure about how prudent it is to stress the body at this time. I do enjoy the feeling of returning home, hollowed-out, and happy as I slurp a tall glass of V-8; however, maybe I will need those reserves to survive?
Also, when the dust settles, maybe we will return to a time when our sport wasn't a promotional exercise, when it will be enough to ride shoulder to shoulder with another individual through the countryside and chat about our children, or our preference for Macintosh versus Cortland, or how good it feels to taste the sweat that settles on our mouth. Some of the best moments are the banal ones.
The current approach is a NEED based approach vs a WANT based approach. There is a triaging process so that the resources are used on those who need it most. You could test negative today, and then get it tomorrow. You can't test everybody every day.
Let's not forget that there are still plenty of respiratory pathogens demanding attention as well.
I thought this was supposed to be the non-politics thread about COVID-19?
I stopped going to the gym two days ago after I watched a man walk into the cybex room, hit every piece of equipment (there's about twelve) in order, and then walk out.
Without cleaning anything.
No thanks. I'm done until further notice. It's dumbbells in the basement for a few months, I think.
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