Ukraine

[vertical_doug]

Posted in Moon over Alabama

Jack Matlock, the last U.S. ambassador to the USSR, has one answer:

Maybe I am wrong – tragically wrong – but I cannot dismiss the suspicion that we are witnessing an elaborate charade, grossly magnified by prominent elements of the American media, to serve a domestic political end. Facing rising inflation, the ravages of Omicron, blame (for the most part unfair) for the withdrawal from Afghanistan, plus the failure to get the full support of his own party for the Build Back Better legislation, the Biden administration is staggering under sagging approval ratings just as it gears up for this year’s congressional elections.

Since clear "victories" on the domestic woes seem increasingly unlikely, why not fabricate one by posing as if he prevented the invasion of Ukraine by "standing up to Vladimir Putin"?

Actually, it seems most likely that President Putin’s goals are what he says they are – and as he has been saying since his speech in Munich in 2007. To simplify and paraphrase, I would sum them up as: "Treat us with at least a modicum of respect. We do not threaten you or your allies, why do you refuse us the security you insist for yourself?"

More here:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/0...sion-scam.html

And wrt Cuba: We put missile batteries in Turkey first....so exactly who precipitated the Cuban Missile Crisis?

And something upon which I agree with the American Conservative mag: https://www.theamericanconservative....ne-government/

The problem with this conspiracy theory is the Russian troop buildup, the military exercises and recent shelling originating with the Russians, and at this point, Putin needs to come back with real concessions from NATO.

The media may be over blowing this for ratings, but I do not think this is some coordinated campaign between the WH and media when someone like Chuck Todd is asking Tony Blinken on 'Meet the Press' why Putin did not act up during the previous administration.

If Putin does back down, it will most likely be because he underestimated the resolve of Germany and France on this issue. When you have a former Chancellor Gerhard Schroder running political interference for Nord Stream 2, Rosneft, Gazprom, Putin probably thought he had this in the bag. This may be an issue for US also since Germany and France may force the US into some NATO concessions... In which case, Putin gets a win.

[jclay]

The problem with this conspiracy theory is the Russian troop buildup, the military exercises and recent shelling originating with the Russians, and at this point, Putin needs to come back with real concessions from NATO.

The media may be over blowing this for ratings, but I do not think this is some coordinated campaign between the WH and media when someone like Chuck Todd is asking Tony Blinken on 'Meet the Press' why Putin did not act up during the previous administration.

If Putin does back down, it will most likely be because he underestimated the resolve of Germany and France on this issue. When you have a former Chancellor Gerhard Schroder running political interference for Nord Stream 2, Rosneft, Gazprom, Putin probably thought he had this in the bag. This may be an issue for US also since Germany and France may force the US into some NATO concessions... In which case, Putin gets a win.

These sorts of reactions don't have to be, probably rarely are, consciously ginned up by a bunch of folks kicking ideas around as in, "wow, our ratings are flagging....what can we do....HEY, let's start a war". The US is so culturally convinced of it's broad spectrum superiority, righteousness and that everybody wants to be like us, that we talk ourselves into ill considered actions; the politicians, the populace, the press....our country gets into this self-reinforcing mode of "OMG!....we can't let this happen" and off we go. Weapons of mass disappearance in Iraq come to mind. We, a large chunk of our industrial base and our MIC are incentivized to do "stuff". And we do stuff, and the score card isn't very impressive.

We have a long history of rat-effing other countries that don't tow our line and aren't friendly enough to US corporate interests. We've been pressing eastward, breaking agreements at least since Gorbachev's being told "NATO will advance not one inch farther" which helped in the re-unification of Germany and liberalization of some former countries on the western flank of Russia...and then we send Victoria Nuland and her crowd to Ukraine to help topple the government that isn't adequately leaning west. Did we really think that Russia was going to swallow the loss of her only warm water port? Putin's had enough; more than enough. So yeah, certainly Putin's pushing back but we lit the fuse, or at least one of them.

Crap, I gotta stop. I've just burned 25 minutes on something from which no good will come and which shoulda been spent on my morning drumming practice. You're a smart guy; you get my point. I need to post what I think are enlightening articles and let it go at that; somebody thump me when I forget and fall down this rabbit hole.

And y'all read the "what if" article I linked, not that smart, circumspect folks should need to but it's a good reminder.

Later.

[bigbill]

A house with a gasoline filled moat around it.

That's nice info, but I wasn't commenting on whether or not it makes sense to fire cruise missiles from the Aegis Ashore, rather on whether it is possible since that is one of Russia's concerns with those facilities. Everything that I have found says that it is indeed possible.

With regard to your USNI link, the INF Treaty is no longer valid.

I should have been more clear about the purpose of the link. It was meant to provide some history and methods of deployment. I know the treaty is no longer valid. I think the Russians are upset about the launchers because of their proximity to them. I also believe any TLAM-N discussion by Russia is a red herring. Today, we have the B-2 which can carry many nuclear weapons including standoff weapons that don't require entering Russian airspace.

[zeroking]

A hard rain's gonna fall

[jclay]

A hard rain's gonna fall

Kelly Denton-Borhaug, Planting a Million Seeds of Violence
Posted on February 22, 2022

"In her new piece, TomDispatch regular Kelly Denton-Borhaug discusses the eerie psychology of America’s elected representatives as they continue, using ever more staggering numbers of taxpayer dollars, to plant the seeds of future violence around the planet. And what a time for it when, from Ukraine to Asia, Syria to Africa, this country continues to play tag with war in such a big-time way.

To use Denton-Borhaug’s imagery, how we’ve sown those seeds in this century is a truly grim tale. I mean, just look at Afghanistan. Yes, 20 years after the rash invasion of that country in response to the acts of 19 mostly Saudi hijackers, we’re officially done with our disastrous war there. (Okay, okay, the Biden administration and the U.S. military have continued to mutter about “over-the-horizon” air strikes there, so who knows.) But the “seeds” we planted over those two long decades of war-making have, by now, turned into nightmare forests — if you happen to be an Afghan, anyway. Our “nation-building” effort in their country quite literally left it as perhaps the most calamitous wreck on Planet Earth. Then, having finally dumped it on the trash heap of history, the Biden administration froze at least $7 billion in Afghan funds so its central bank couldn’t access them for use in that desperate, devastated land."

Article here: https://tomdispatch.com/the-sacraliz...merican-style/

[vertical_doug]

People have been killing each other long before there was a United States and people will continue to kill each other long after we are gone. You can argue we shouldn't stick our nose in other people's business but the seeds to every conflict were not sown by America.

If you want another reason to hate international sports associations for blind money grabs, the UEFA Champions League Final is still scheduled for Gazprom Stadium in St. Petersburg in May. UEFA says they are monitoring the situation.

[jclay]

People have been killing each other long before there was a United States and people will continue to kill each other long after we are gone. You can argue we shouldn't stick our nose in other people's business but the seeds to every conflict were not sown by America.

Straw man arguments, bof'em.

[Scott G.]

Straw man arguments, bof'em.

My strawman is a "Thomas Friedman" punchable pundit figure.

[bcm119]

I don't think this crisis is a good time to reflect on our past bad behavior or allow feelings of guilt to cloud judgement of the current situation. The current situation isn't Iraq. Strongman authoritarianism is having a heyday globally and it's Putin's time to shine. That Fox News has basically taken a Putin sympathizer stance is probably more than a happy coincidence for Putin. I think Biden is handling this well so far, and bringing up things like 'weapons of mass disappearance' isn't really relevant to the present. I think the relevant backstory in US politics is what David Brooks laid out in a rare op-ed I agreed with, called the Dark Century, in which he illustrates the fragility of democracy and the global reversion to the mean, which is authoritarianism and violence.

[jclay]

I don't think this crisis is a good time to reflect on our past bad behavior or allow feelings of guilt to cloud judgement of the current situation. The current situation isn't Iraq. Strongman authoritarianism is having a heyday globally and it's Putin's time to shine. That Fox News has basically taken a Putin sympathizer stance is probably more than a happy coincidence for Putin. I think Biden is handling this well so far, and bringing up things like 'weapons of mass disappearance' isn't really relevant to the present. I think the relevant backstory in US politics is what David Brooks laid out in a rare op-ed I agreed with, called the Dark Century, in which he illustrates the fragility of democracy and the global reversion to the mean, which is authoritarianism and violence.

That sounds remarkably like the AR15 crowd’s response to the folks who try to advance any sort of gun control measures after the mass shooting du jour; “this isn’t a good time”. If we waited for a “good time”, defined as, say, a week without a mass shooting, there’d never be one.

So when would be a good time to recognize that we’ve been throwing gasoline on the Ukrainian situation since shortly after Baker assured Gorbachev that NATO would not advance eastward? When would be a good time to acknowledge that it’s reasonable for Russia to demand that NATO stay off it’s immediate doorstep? Ukraine has some distinctly, culturally different regions; when would it be a good time to recognize that we’re taking sides in what may become, at least in part, a civil war?

And based on that, when would it be a good time to stop or, at the very least, agree to a several decades moratorium on any consideration of NATO membership for Ukraine? Some time after hostilities commence? Since we can’t rewind and decide not to send Victoria Nuland & Co. to rat’eff the Yanukovich administration in order to get a Euro-leaning replacement, when?

Putin’s demand that NATO stay off of Russia’s doorstep is reasonable from a number of perspectives; just think about China or Russia doing the same in Mexico. I know, I know, we’re the USA, white hats and all, and the rules are different for us but, amazingly, a bunch of the world doesn’t see it that way and I have a difficult time disagreeing with that. It seems to me that if we really cared about the people of Ukraine (instead of being bully boy) we’d turn down the heat that we can control, i.e. pause any consideration of NATO membership for the foreseeable future, in exchange for Russian military withdrawal and attempts to calm the situation by all sides. Let the gaz flow, try to improve the economic situation without expectation of remuneration or favor, that sort of thing.

For some reason the LBJ tapes are on an endless loop in my brain, you know, the ones where he’s wondering WTF we were doing in ‘Nam. That he didn’t pull us out of that civil war was made more poignant because Ho Che Minh had attempted to approach the US after WWII for help in establishing a democracy in that country; but we didn’t want to risk pissing France off and so let them re-up their happy little colonial domain there, paving the way for unspeakable atrocities by us and others; and it still went "red"; free market "red", but "red". And it's worth remembering, not that exporting democracy is truly the goal (maintaining our status as global hegemon is), but if it were....well,....we're just not very good at making it happen, ya know? Pretty crappy actually.

So, the best time to avoid potential disasters of this sort is before making stupid decisions that germinates them, but since that train has left the station I suggest doing it before the guns start firing.

And bringing up WMD (disappearance) it totally germane in that it illuminates the lies, BS and tunnel vision that we consume or talk ourselves into. I want to say that “you’d think we’d learn” but the evidence to the contrary is pretty solid.

[vertical_doug]

And bringing up WMD (disappearance) it totally germane in that it illuminates the lies, BS and tunnel vision that we consume or talk ourselves into. I want to say that “you’d think we’d learn” but the evidence to the contrary is pretty solid.

At least out intelligence was right this time.

[j44ke]

Now people are dying in Ukraine.

[Will Neide]

"Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that in glory and triumph they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot." -Carl Sagan

[jclay]

Now people are dying in Ukraine.

And so I will repeat: The best time to avoid potential disasters of this sort is before making stupid decisions that germinate them.

This did not happen over night. US foreign policy hawks added stressor after stressor that made this sort of action more likely; predictable really. That's not just my take on it; we've been warned for years, decades, about our overly hawkish approaches to Russia (and others) by plenty of highly educated and experienced, long tenured, senior US foreign policy folks. They got ignored. People and organizations do what they're incentivized to do; all the more-so when framed by "righteous" cultural or religious convictions. And now we've got a bona fide train wreck on our hands.

Putin is guilty as hell for pulling the trigger but, much like Trump has done domestically, we cranked up the pressure and the situation finally ruptured.

What's that saying? The third world war will be nuclear; the fourth will be fought with sticks and stones.

[htwoopup]

At least out intelligence was right this time.

I believe (although do not know) that our intelligence was right last time but that the powers that be misrepresented it for their own purposes.

My reason for saying that is that a dear friend of mine who was a career Mid-East expert in the State Department for decades was fired for refusing to support/ help write Colin Powell’s speech about WMD because he said the intelligence did NOT say that. He has not been able to get a job in DC since.

And that little story should give pause to all discussions that involve politicians supposedly being transparent and pure in intent.

[jclay]

i believe (although do not know) that our intelligence was right last time but that the powers that be misrepresented it for their own purposes.

My reason for saying that is that a dear friend of mine who was a career mid-east expert in the state department for decades was fired for refusing to support/ help write colin powell’s speech about wmd because he said the intelligence did not say that. He has not been able to get a job in dc since.

And that little story should give pause to all discussions that involve politicians supposedly being transparent and pure in intent.

Q.E. effing D.

[j44ke]

Clay, with all respect, your point was taken about 5000 words ago.

[Doug Fattic]

John, I don't know what color of hat the US wears when it was implementing our eastern European policies but I know who wears the blackest of black hats and that is Putin. He proved he is evil because of the destruction his invasion caused when he invaded eastern Ukraine in 2014. The shelling of businesses and homes made those that lived there flee west. I saw them personally when they came to the college campus near Kyiv (where we build bicycles for pastors) looking for food and clothing. He doesn't care what damage he created as long as he got what he wanted. Just like a thief doesn't care he stole retirement money from old folks. I'm guessing this new invasion will be so much worse. I don't think any kind of pass should be given him because of our policies. He is taking Ukraine because he wants it and knows he can and isn't concerned about what damage it does to others. He can win this game because he doesn't mind the consequences and we do.

When I cycled in Crimea about a dozen years ago, I was surprised at how many Russian navy guys I saw in Sevastopol (a port city). They were all over the place.

There may be Ukrainians somewhere that wish Ukraine (or parts of Ukraine) were part of Russia but I never met any. Every where I went Ukrainians spoke Russian and not Ukrainian until you go to the western parts of Ukraine. In fact asking them what language they were speaking would irritate them because even though the official language is Ukrainian that isn't what they were comfortable speaking. And because they speak Russian didn't mean they wish they could be part of Russia.

[jclay]

John, I don't know what color of hat the US wears when it was implementing our eastern European policies but I know who wears the blackest of black hats and that is Putin. He proved he is evil because of the destruction his invasion caused when he invaded eastern Ukraine in 2014. The shelling of businesses and homes made those that lived there flee west. I saw them personally when they came to the college campus near Kyiv (where we build bicycles for pastors) looking for food and clothing. He doesn't care what damage he created as long as he got what he wanted. Just like a thief doesn't care he stole retirement money from old folks. I'm guessing this new invasion will be so much worse. I don't think any kind of pass should be given him because of our policies. He is taking Ukraine because he wants it and knows he can and isn't concerned about what damage it does to others. He can win this game because he doesn't mind the consequences and we do.

When I cycled in Crimea about a dozen years ago, I was surprised at how many Russian navy guys I saw in Sevastopol (a port city). They were all over the place.

There may be Ukrainians somewhere that wish Ukraine (or parts of Ukraine) were part of Russia but I never met any. Every where I went Ukrainians spoke Russian and not Ukrainian until you go to the western parts of Ukraine. In fact asking them what language they were speaking would irritate them because even though the official language is Ukrainian that isn't what they were comfortable speaking. And because they speak Russian didn't mean they wish they could be part of Russia.

Which is why a very careful, very slow, very long term plan of managing a very difficult, sensitive situation involving a volatile and destructive personality and political reality running a very complicated country with a complex history and cultural pastiche, is required, is paramount; as is the recognition that we’re dealing with a nuclear armed power and that we will likely not achieve our goals (even if purely noble) in a single lifetime.

Putin gets no pass from me; what I advocate is a clear eyed view of reality, of what is possible and what isn’t and that when dealing with a nuclear armed country run by a, from this layman’s perspective and which you just MOL confirmed, psychopath, one had better tread extraordinarily carefully with an eye towards, above above all else, not destabilizing the situation. Think of dealing with Putin as you would walking across a mine field...in the dark, and it isn’t flat and happy dirt. It doesn’t matter how long it takes, and you can’t do just anything you want (lie down, stomp your feet, or even take a leak without serious planning) during the traverse; what matters, the only thing that matters, is that you don’t step on a mine.

For the seasoned foreign policy experts who didn’t subscribe to limitless, pre-ordained US arm wrestling victories, Putin’s annexation of Crimea was a foregone conclusion, given the culmination of several decades of western, largely US, stressors. That’s not a pass; metaphorically that’s acknowledging quacking, seeing webbed feet, duck poop and a water bird that looks and behaves an awful lot like a duck. It R what it R and we can’t change it. But we can piss it off, or recognize it for what it is, for the intrinsic limitations on our actions, and plan accordingly. It's not got a lot with what Ukrainians desire; it's got everything to do with what's possible at any particular time and over the future.

The US obviously still feels that it can act with impunity towards anyone. That is a recipe for disaster and something that we would never tolerate; I needn’t mention the examples….or our relationship with China and the fun that’s in store for the planet there if we don’t get a lot more clever, work on incentives that move all of us in a sustainable direction, and realize that we can easily trip things up to the point that through fuck-up, avarice or honest mistake we suddenly find ourselves in the middle of a nuclear exchange. That’s not hyperbole; we’ve been on the brink before....why would we think that we won't be again given global tensions and human frailty?

[Will Neide]

Which is why a very careful, very slow, very long term plan of managing a very difficult, sensitive situation involving a volatile and destructive personality and political reality running a very complicated country with a complex history and cultural pastiche, is required, is paramount; as is the recognition that we’re dealing with a nuclear armed power and that we will likely not achieve our goals (even if purely noble) in a single lifetime.

Putin gets no pass from me; what I advocate is a clear eyed view of reality, of what is possible and what isn’t and that when dealing with a nuclear armed country run by a, from this layman’s perspective and which you just MOL confirmed, psychopath, one had better tread extraordinarily carefully with an eye towards, above above all else, not destabilizing the situation. Think of dealing with Putin as you would walking across a mine field...in the dark, and it isn’t flat and happy dirt. It doesn’t matter how long it takes, and you can’t do just anything you want (lie down, stomp your feet, or even take a leak without serious planning) during the traverse; what matters, the only thing that matters, is that you don’t step on a mine.

For the seasoned foreign policy experts who didn’t subscribe to limitless, pre-ordained US arm wrestling victories, Putin’s annexation of Crimea was a foregone conclusion, given the culmination of several decades of western, largely US, stressors. That’s not a pass; metaphorically that’s acknowledging quacking, seeing webbed feet, duck poop and a water bird that looks and behaves an awful lot like a duck. It R what it R and we can’t change it. But we can piss it off, or recognize it for what it is, for the intrinsic limitations on our actions, and plan accordingly. It's not got a lot with what Ukrainians desire; it's got everything to do with what's possible at any particular time and over the future.

The US obviously still feels that it can act with impunity towards anyone. That is a recipe for disaster and something that we would never tolerate; I needn’t mention the examples….or our relationship with China and the fun that’s in store for the planet there if we don’t get a lot more clever, work on incentives that move all of us in a sustainable direction, and realize that we can easily trip things up to the point that through fuck-up, avarice or honest mistake we suddenly find ourselves in the middle of a nuclear exchange. That’s not hyperbole; we’ve been on the brink before....why would we think that we won't be again given global tensions and human frailty?

That's a lot of intertwined interpretations that are not supported by events, both current and historic.