Covid19

[Will Neide]

That's the most frightening thing I've read this week. Let that sink in for a minute.

It's not that frightening, and there is no point in speculating.

An interesting primer discussion here (I have no association with the webpage):

Technical Problems with Existing CDC COVID-19 Primers, and an Improved Set of Primers | Biome Informatics

[Will Neide]

What is the deal with the refusal of the CDC to accept the WHO test? I recall reading that a relatively large number were offered initially but refused.

I think the whole country (world) is getting a crash course in clinical laboratory medicine. WHO doesn't have a "kit" or a test. They provide info, and contract with approved labs for their testing. The US-CDC in Atlanta is one such lab.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=a03a01e6_2

Here is more info from WHO and a list of countries who have submitted protocols to them. The info is all available and free. The list of primers and approach for each (country/lab) is listed.
National laboratories

[Tom]

That link is what my relative was referring to and the problems that the author identified. The encouraging thing is there is that kind of dialogue among scientists and the ethic that science is to be shared and cooperatively improved is a cause for at least some hope.

[htwoopup]

So my daughter came back through JFK last night from Tokyo having spent 3 weeks in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand.

She said EVERYWHERE they went in those countries there were personnel with handheld infrared (or something akin to that word) forehead thermometers reading people's temperatures as they went into and out of buildings, trains, boats, etc.

When she arrived at Terminal 1 US customs, it took them literally 4 minutes to get through and the US Customs agent only asked them if they had been to China. Which aside from being the wrong question at this point was also frightening as it was accompanied by absolutely no other checking of them in any way.

[j44ke]

I’ve been thinking about screening at airports. If they were screening and they discovered an American citizen with a fever, what would be the next step? I’m quite sure the Feds could not turn them away, but would they immediately go to be tested? In what kind of facilities? Sterile quarantine type negative air facilities? With how many beds? And how long would they have to stay there?

Even if they were swooping them off to the nearest hospital, transportation is hard enough just getting home from one of the NYC airports, let alone move someone who is possibly contagious to a hospital. And then of course another plane lands. Things start stacking up and you have crowds of heavy breathers.

The logistics compound themselves. I doubt any airport or TSA has the skill or capacity to manage nearly any of them. Send them home, sort them out later.

[bigbill]

We're out of hand sanitizer refills at work. I've got the guys using a 10% bleach solution to wipe down surfaces so I can save my Lysol type cleaners. A bleach smell is reassuring anyway. We aren't closing down unless directed by the state and county because of the impact on the local economy. So far, there are no cases reported in Mohave Country which is essentially the entire NW portion of Arizona. North of the county is Henderson and Las Vegas, and west is California with the largest nearby city being Barstow. I've relocated folks to allow for distancing in the workplace, and canceled formal meetings and relying on Skype. Coming out of this, I think we'll have a great appreciation of how little value we get from meetings and business travel.

[deano]

So my daughter came back through JFK last night from Tokyo having spent 3 weeks in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand.

She said EVERYWHERE they went in those countries there were personnel with handheld infrared (or something akin to that word) forehead thermometers reading people's temperatures as they went into and out of buildings, trains, boats, etc.

When she arrived at Terminal 1 US customs, it took them literally 4 minutes to get through and the US Customs agent only asked them if they had been to China. Which aside from being the wrong question at this point was also frightening as it was accompanied by absolutely no other checking of them in any way.

This kind of stuff drives my bananas up the wall.

At least 15 of Durham's confirmed cases are from a team of Dukies who were overseas and came home even though a buncha people on their team were diagnosed with it while abroad and had to quarantine in country. They, like, still came home. To here. Come ON people.

The world is irrational.

[Bobonli]

At this point you should assume you’ve been exposed and may have it. Word is leaking out of hospitals that care providers are testing positive and are being quarantined, some with sub acute presentations. For example, sinus headaches and feeling run down, runny nose. Some people know they’ve cared for positive patients, others got it thru community spread. That right there is the next chapter of the crisis: when there’s not enough people in the hospitals to meet demand. Today’s the first day that I legit felt worried about my own safety and that of my family.

Our testing threshold is symptoms with fever being a distinguishing feature to warrant testing;otherwise, wait in line until you have a fever. Well some people don’t get to the point of fever and chills, are and walking around shedding virus to others. In my home alone, 3/4 of us of have had some nasal drainage or sore throat over the past ten days but are ineligible even though two of us work in healthcare. And I hasten to point out, neither of us are even direct providers, but have had contact with direct providers. My point is: it’s everywhere and testing cannot keep up and to many seems to be approaching pointless. Travel.....no one in my organization cares anymore! Being in NY is sufficient reason to believe you’ve been exposed.

And yet I still see people congregating and hovering. I watched a grubby looking shopping cart guy at the market rub his face while walking down an aisle randomly picking stuff up from the shelves and then putting the items back. A group of teens huddled thisclose at the take out restaurant; I had to ask them to move out of my way to get to the register. Wake up people you may have it. I may have it, get they fork away from me!

All of us need to accept we might very well have it and not be showing the ‘textbook symptoms’ and adjust our behavior accordingly.

[Moke]

We did our social distancing once a week shopping trip to the store today. Mom and Pop grocery was out of hand wipes for the cart. (that is ok we brought our own) I was appalled in the fruit/ veggie aisles. People were pinching the peppers, hand picking brussle sprouts. Eyeballing by hand apples (don't want no spots). I guess we are going to the frozen veggies for a while. Not too sure how some people think germs,virus and bacteria are transported. Woke me up from a bad dream at the green grocery.

[sk_tle]

I’m sitting on the front porch of our 1925 bungalow in central Florida wondering what to do next. I will be 71 in April and although in good health I’m on the wrong side of the bell curve for Covid19. My wife, 65 has had pneumonia and or bronchitis 2 years in a row! Not sure where this was going but sometimes I have to say WTF.

Mike

PS. Don’t even ask me about my401K

If you are retired the answer is simple. Both should stay home, only order online and rinse any incoming good with soap. Reduce you social interaction to the minimum. You can have chat with your neighbours/friends but keep your distances while doing so and you should be fine. I understand it feel weird not being able to hug, shake hands or share a table with relative/friends but this is the safe way.

[vertical_doug]

Numbers to keep in mind:
Days from lockdown declaration in Wuhan to 1% growth rate = 28
Days in China to zero local transmissions =56

China is still reporting new cases but these are from Chinese returning from overseas, mostly students.

South Korea was able to go from high infection to 1% = 15 days
They are not at zero yet. Also, like China, they are seeing a slight increase of cases mainly from students returning home from overseas.

For the US, if you can follow China, the country is at the Tuesday after Easter, April 15, for low transmission, and May 13 would be 56 days.

[Lionel]

Numbers to keep in mind:
Days from lockdown declaration in Wuhan to 1% growth rate = 28
Days in China to zero local transmissions =56

China is still reporting new cases but these are from Chinese returning from overseas, mostly students.

South Korea was able to go from high infection to 1% = 15 days
They are not at zero yet. Also, like China, they are seeing a slight increase of cases mainly from students returning home from overseas.

For the US, if you can follow China, the country is at the Tuesday after Easter, April 15, for low transmission, and May 13 would be 56 days.

Except is the US is doing nothing compared to the measures China took.

[Chik]

A new study estimates that 86% of COVID-19 infections in China went undiagnosed before the country's travel ban was enacted on January 23.
People who had not been diagnosed with COVID-19 were the source of 79% of reported cases in China.
If undiagnosed people hadn't spread the virus, the number of cases could have been reduced by 66% in Wuhan and 79% across all of China, the study reports.

Data now coming out of Italy is not dissimilar.

It's hardly surprising, but it does call into question the current testing protocols in many countries.

[vertical_doug]

Except is the US is doing nothing compared to the measures China took.

Yes, but South Korea did not either. The question is whether US can get its act together. The same can be said for France, Germany and Spain.

[Chik]

When she arrived at Terminal 1 US customs, it took them literally 4 minutes to get through and the US Customs agent only asked them if they had been to China. Which aside from being the wrong question at this point was also frightening as it was accompanied by absolutely no other checking of them in any way.

Because, well, it's the China Virus.

Face palm.

[Lionel]

Yes, but South Korea did not either. The question is whether US can get its act together. The same can be said for France, Germany and Spain.

Of course South Korea did and they did it very swiftly. UK is the most pathetic with schools still open. France and Spain were way late to do anything and totally unprepared.

[Chik]

Lionel, you probably already know that British schools are closing tomorrow.

The UK modelling work (the study also includes the US) has been completed only recently, which partly explains the delay in policy formulation and implementation.

However, I think it's a complex decision given that there is a significant number of children living in poverty and relying on the schools to give them the only decent meal they have on any given day. Add to that the number of parents entirely reliant on the NHS, with no private insurance coverage, and the picture becomes very complicated very quickly.

To be clear, I'm not defending the Brits, who are consistently incompetent when it comes to policy which is partly why they're in this situation, and I realise that many countries have similar issues, particularly with children in poverty.

[bertiewhang]

To be clear, I'm not defending the Brits, who are consistently incompetent when it comes to policy which is partly why they're in this situation, and I realise that many countries have similar issues, particularly with children in poverty.

Not starting an argument but would you mind explaining these remarks with regard to policy and incompetence? The daily reports from our Prime Minister, lead scientist and lead doctor have explained the reasoning behind our countries course of action and incompetent is not a word I would use to describe any of these people. What information are you party to that will provide a counterpoint to the information provided here in the UK and shed light on our situation. I will say the UK's media behaviour has been it's usual shitstorm of scare mongering and nonsense so I would like to hear any lucid facts available.
Thanks Lee

[Will Neide]

Except is the US is doing nothing compared to the measures China took.

Define “nothing?” How do you think our measures stack up to other countries?

[guido]

Which Country Has Flattened the Curve for the Coronavirus? - The New York Times