Ukraine

[jclay]

That's a lot of intertwined interpretations that are not supported by events, both current and historic.

Oh really? Do tell. Feel free to point out my errors, sentence by sentence.

[bcm119]

That sounds remarkably like the AR15 crowd’s response to the folks who try to advance any sort of gun control measures after the mass shooting du jour; “this isn’t a good time”. If we waited for a “good time”, defined as, say, a week without a mass shooting, there’d never be one.

So when would be a good time to recognize that we’ve been throwing gasoline on the Ukrainian situation since shortly after Baker assured Gorbachev that NATO would not advance eastward? When would be a good time to acknowledge that it’s reasonable for Russia to demand that NATO stay off it’s immediate doorstep? Ukraine has some distinctly, culturally different regions; when would it be a good time to recognize that we’re taking sides in what may become, at least in part, a civil war?

And based on that, when would it be a good time to stop or, at the very least, agree to a several decades moratorium on any consideration of NATO membership for Ukraine? Some time after hostilities commence? Since we can’t rewind and decide not to send Victoria Nuland & Co. to rat’eff the Yanukovich administration in order to get a Euro-leaning replacement, when?

Putin’s demand that NATO stay off of Russia’s doorstep is reasonable from a number of perspectives; just think about China or Russia doing the same in Mexico. I know, I know, we’re the USA, white hats and all, and the rules are different for us but, amazingly, a bunch of the world doesn’t see it that way and I have a difficult time disagreeing with that. It seems to me that if we really cared about the people of Ukraine (instead of being bully boy) we’d turn down the heat that we can control, i.e. pause any consideration of NATO membership for the foreseeable future, in exchange for Russian military withdrawal and attempts to calm the situation by all sides. Let the gaz flow, try to improve the economic situation without expectation of remuneration or favor, that sort of thing.

For some reason the LBJ tapes are on an endless loop in my brain, you know, the ones where he’s wondering WTF we were doing in ‘Nam. That he didn’t pull us out of that civil war was made more poignant because Ho Che Minh had attempted to approach the US after WWII for help in establishing a democracy in that country; but we didn’t want to risk pissing France off and so let them re-up their happy little colonial domain there, paving the way for unspeakable atrocities by us and others; and it still went "red"; free market "red", but "red". And it's worth remembering, not that exporting democracy is truly the goal (maintaining our status as global hegemon is), but if it were....well,....we're just not very good at making it happen, ya know? Pretty crappy actually.

So, the best time to avoid potential disasters of this sort is before making stupid decisions that germinates them, but since that train has left the station I suggest doing it before the guns start firing.

And bringing up WMD (disappearance) it totally germane in that it illuminates the lies, BS and tunnel vision that we consume or talk ourselves into. I want to say that “you’d think we’d learn” but the evidence to the contrary is pretty solid.

It's never been about NATO expansion. Ukraine is not on the brink of joining NATO, they are clearly unqualified and there has been no indication that NATO is about to grant them membership. Putin uses NATO expansion as a pretext for squashing democratic advancements in his perceived sphere of influence. He knows NATO is a defensive alliance; he knows NATO would never attack Russia. He isn't afraid of NATO, he is afraid of democracy flourishing next door and hurting his ego, credibility, and romantic idea of the USSR. His demands aren't the slightest bit reasonable; they are the demands of a sociopath.

Ukraine elected Zelensky in a free election by a landslide, not just in western Ukraine but in all parts of the country. The people have never been so politically homogeneous as they are today. Putin's actions today are a direct result of the free will of the Ukrainian people to form a democracy. Painting this as anything else is just twitter-fed populist hogwash.

[Scott G.]

A couple ranging questions for John Clay.

Was Warsaw '45 brought on by Western stressors ?

Was Hungary '56 brought on by Western stressors ?

Was the Ukraine War of Independence a result of Allied missteps ?

[72gmc]

Powerful, paranoid man wants to turn back the clock through violence: latest chapter in the long-running series. A democratic Ukraine is the present and perhaps the future. Sacrificing them would not right past wrongs.

[gregl]

A couple ranging questions for John Clay.

Was Warsaw '45 brought on by Western stressors ?

Was Hungary '56 brought on by Western stressors ?

Was the Ukraine War of Independence a result of Allied missteps ?

Add Czechoslovakia '68 and Afghanistan '79 to the list. Moscow has never liked non-aligned neighbors. And before the whataboutisms start, the US record in "nation building" is abysmal as well. We don't get a pass just for being the US. But in this case, as bcm119 so well documented, it's all about a dictator throwing around the weight of his country.

Greg

[jclay]

It's never been about NATO expansion. Ukraine is not on the brink of joining NATO, they are clearly unqualified and there has been no indication that NATO is about to grant them membership. Putin uses NATO expansion as a pretext for squashing democratic advancements in his perceived sphere of influence. He knows NATO is a defensive alliance; he knows NATO would never attack Russia. He isn't afraid of NATO, he is afraid of democracy flourishing next door and hurting his ego, credibility, and romantic idea of the USSR. His demands aren't the slightest bit reasonable; they are the demands of a sociopath.

Ukraine elected Zelensky in a free election by a landslide, not just in western Ukraine but in all parts of the country. The people have never been so politically homogeneous as they are today. Putin's actions today are a direct result of the free will of the Ukrainian people to form a democracy. Painting this as anything else is just twitter-fed populist hogwash.

Ukraine is not on the brink of joining NATO, they are clearly unqualified and there has been no indication that NATO is about to grant them membership.
* No, membership is not eminent but overtures have been made and desires known.
Putin uses NATO expansion as a pretext for squashing democratic advancements in his perceived sphere of influence.
* It is his sphere of influence whether we like it or not, even if he should leave Ukraine alone. Think Central American countries and the USA in the not too distant past.
He knows NATO is a defensive alliance; he knows NATO would never attack Russia.
* Yes (NATO being defensive in intent) and probably so (believes no attack on Russia), but I think you’re looking at it from our perspective; his, given the US track record of “interventions” is probably a bit different even if gratuitously so. And then there is the domestic political theater to which he must play.
He isn't afraid of NATO, he is afraid of democracy flourishing next door and hurting his ego, credibility, and romantic idea of the USSR.
* Wars are often started over national prestige issues. Can sociopaths be romanticists?
His demands aren't the slightest bit reasonable
* I don’t agree, if only from a practical perspective. Whatever perspective you or I may have I don’t think it’s entirely unreasonable to insist on some geographic buffering between major powers. We certainly subscribe to that notion.
They are the demands of a sociopath.
* Yeah, but we have to deal with him in a manner least likely to have a day like today happen.

So, if they’re the demands of a sociopath who commands a military that can’t be defeated without serious costs all around (at a minimum) and real risk of nuclear war (in the extreme), what does the wise, strategic planner do in his/her efforts to allow a nascent democracy (and possibly the rest of us) to peacefully survive long enough to get past the sociopath’s tenure, and hopefully to more liberal days in the belligerent country’s evolution?

I’m thinking that you don’t go poking the belligerent in the eyes, like by sending a Victoria Nuland type over to help overthrow a government (2014), or keep saying that “we can offer NATO membership if we want to”, which is what we keep saying. You try not to piss’em off, particularly on the heels of past attempts to destroy them economically. You slow your roll and recognize that this is a very long game and that progress will be slow and require care. And that’s not what we’ve been doing as best I can tell.

But I appreciate the questions. Maybe I've got it wrong but I don't think we're doing a real great job of this for Ukraine.

As to the follow-ups (Warsaw, Hungary, etc.) those were egregious too (today's attack was egregious, I just think our actions helped precipitate it); I'd have to do more reading than I'm inclined to at this point....but the West was pretty active back then, too, so I'm not sure how to square that circle. Hate to bow out but it's time to do so; I haven't any new perspectives and as Jorn said...."5000 words"; that's probably enough.

[echappist]

Add Czechoslovakia '68 and Afghanistan '79 to the list. Moscow has never liked non-aligned neighbors. And before the whataboutisms start, the US record in "nation building" is abysmal as well. We don't get a pass just for being the US. But in this case, as bcm119 so well documented, it's all about a dictator throwing around the weight of his country.

Greg

Exactly this. Due to realpolitiks, everyone has blood on its hands. That is to be expected. However, this fact alone does not give one's foes/ adversaries a carte blanche for committing further atrocities.

PS. We should also not forget the following: Winter Wars of 1940 and that Molotov Ribbentrop "Non-Aggression" Pact that carved up Poland for a fourth time, during which the Russians expressly went after the ruling elite and just wiped them out.

[theflashunc]

Blaming NATO expansion for an invasion that the guy invading said is aimed to purge the government of neo-Nazi leadership (and said President is Jewish who lost family members in the Holocaust and his grandfather retired a colonel in the Russian Army) is one hell of an interpretation of what's happening.

Putin's around the bend, I hope the Ukranians get their country back one day and in the interim give the Russians the uglist guerilla war they've ever seen. Only way they stand a shot at winning is asymmetry over the long haul.

[vertical_doug]

On a selfish note, I hope Ukraine doesn't fall and draws Russia into some kind of quagmire. I want Trump's praise of Putin's Genius to haunt him in the 2024 election and hopefully, haunt the GOP candidates in midterms.

If there was any doubt about how dangerous Trump is if he is elected again, it should be gone now. Maybe the Ukrainians can help us keep ours.

[Will Neide]

If there was any doubt about how dangerous Trump is if he is elected again, it should be gone now.

I have unfortunate news for you.

[jclay]

Well, I have to say y’all are right; addressing US foreign policy behavior is for another day.

I hope to see Putin's aggression become severely disincentivized, carefully. I am reminded of cornered foes, never mind nuclear armed psychopaths.

[Corso]

Yeah, all roads lead back to Trump...some just can't help themselves here.

Trump is not the President. Biden is.

How "dangerous" has Uncle Joe been to the average American? Everything's been just swell right?

But, is Trump wrong about Putin? Putin is doing whatever he wants at a time he knows he can. Joe's tough talk and sanctions has stopped nothing.

Blame Putin. And if you have to blame an American President, blame the one who's failing currently.

[j44ke]

Not really sure there is anything that can be done. Pandemic economies are not solid enough yet, Europe spent years increasing its dependency on Russian natural gas, and no one wants to start a cyber war with power grids, water supplies, emergency services etc. getting shut down. The West believes in diplomacy and Russia gives fuck all about what the West believes in.

My feeling this morning is that the best thing to be done is preserve as many lives as possible. I hate to say it, but that may best be done if Ukraine surrenders and pushes for amnesty for its people. Even then, I suspect many many people are going to be “disappeared” as Russia eradicates any resistance that might exist.

I think western governments are doomed to be ineffectual in situations like this. Doesn’t really matter who is in President or Prime Minister or Chancellor. The humanitarian aspect is what they should be concentrating on now.

[Todd Amunrud]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...hment-00011406

His first impeachment possibly affects what's happening today. Not blaming Trump per say, but his role hasn't been helpful.

[vertical_doug]

Yeah, all roads lead back to Trump...some just can't help themselves here.

Trump is not the President. Biden is.

How "dangerous" has Uncle Joe been to the average American? Everything's been just swell right?

But, is Trump wrong about Putin? Putin is doing whatever he wants at a time he knows he can. Joe's tough talk and sanctions has stopped nothing.

Blame Putin. And if you have to blame an American President, blame the one who's failing currently.

I think my post wasn't clear in its intent. I am not looking at this situation or past transgressions, I am merely looking forward at the US. The proverbial Sinclair Lewis 'It can't happen here'. We have a former President who is an authoritarian fanboy. We have fringe elements of the GOP who are increasingly not talking the language of politics and civil society different of opinion, but in absolute terms which are more about the enemy must be destroyed. Obviously, there are parts of the democratic party which are toxic, but I don't think anyone is as toxic as Bannon, Flynn, etc.

American institutions held the line, but barely last election, with 4 years to dismantle gov, I don't think we'd be so lucky in 2028.

[lumpy]

Not really sure there is anything that can be done. Pandemic economies are not solid enough yet, Europe spent years increasing its dependency on Russian natural gas, and no one wants to start a cyber war with power grids, water supplies, emergency services etc. getting shut down. The West believes in diplomacy and Russia gives fuck all about what the West believes in.

My feeling this morning is that the best thing to be done is preserve as many lives as possible. I hate to say it, but that may best be done if Ukraine surrenders and pushes for amnesty for its people. Even then, I suspect many many people are going to be “disappeared” as Russia eradicates any resistance that might exist.

I think western governments are doomed to be ineffectual in situations like this. Doesn’t really matter who is in President or Prime Minister or Chancellor. The humanitarian aspect is what they should be concentrating on now.

The Ukrainians are fighting and asking for economic and military aid. I think we should give it to them.

[j44ke]

The Ukrainians are fighting and asking for economic and military aid. I think we should give it to them.

In the meantime, yes definitely.

[Marvinlungwitz]

As President, didn’t Trump work to undermine the EU and NATO, and interfere with US aid to Ukraine? And now he’s trying to blunt what should be US outrage at Putin. He’s pretty much the ultimate Russian troll.

Also, this reminds me of General McAuliffe’s “Nuts!”.
https://apple.news/Ap8wzrIMHS-CofaSJmGdbqQ

[theflashunc]

Nobody was stopping this invasion through rhetoric. Macron's even admitted a duplicity in what the Russians were communicating during the diplomatic efforts to stave off this invasion and the reality of what they were doing on the ground.

But the approach by Biden, NATO and the West has pretty effectively combatting Russian disinformation and misinformation in their pretexts for this invasion, keeping pretty much the rest of the world aligned on the message that Russia's the clear, unprovoked aggressor here. You would not have seen the kind of regular, clear intelligence briefings (which, hey, we pretty much got spot on) if the prior administration was in charge.

Was it perfect? No, this kind of thing rarely is. But they've made the best of the situation as they can, when the guy on the other side is intent on rebuilding a dead empire, and is already threatening lobbing the big boys around should anyone intervene.

Cut these oligarchs off from their toys -- the yachts in Monaco, Chelsea football club -- and we'll see how excited they are about Vlad's leadership on this.

[Marvinlungwitz]

Biden needs to hurt Putin but avoid provoking massive cyberattacks. It’s probably not an easy balancing act.