The Vaccine Thread

[fastupslowdown]

For months I've been saying, "I'll be second in line!" and I stand by that. There are many others who are more at risk than I am. I'm happy to stand aside for them and wait my turn.

This appears to be a spectacular achievement of science and medicine, and while I understand and appreciate that we do not (cannot!) know the long-term ramifications of these vaccines for our health, I am more than happy to balance that against the shorter term shitshow we are living.

As far as suspicions of Big Pharma? Or anti-vax idiocy? Fuck that shit.

Could not disagree more with the you take my turn, i'll wait because I don't trust the science. Millions have been vaccinated and an unvaccinated person if infected , even if asymptomatic may infect a person who can't vaccinate or is immune compromised. It's akin to saying I'll drink and drive, its my life anyway not being the least concerned with the other drivers around them. There are just too many people in this country refusing to vaccinate which is why we're dealing with yet again rising infection numbers as a society -Mike G

[zachateseverything]

Precisely.

I recall him expressing some truly disturbing political opinions.

I don't think it was disturbing political opinions as much as just racist trash.

https://www.newsweek.com/clapton-mor...single-1550863

[fastupslowdown]

I think we're at a turning point in vaccinations. Google and Amazon are now mandating the shot. NY is essentially doing the same with health care workers and a number of restaurants are beginning to require a vax card to be seated. Mitch McConnell and several members of Senate Republican leadership are beginning to show contempt for those pushing anti-vax. My sense is more companies will now require a vaccination and that will only grow after the shots get full FDA approval. With millions already vaccinated and living proof the shots work I"m surprised anyone is waiting for the full FDA approval given what can happen if you contract as an unvaccinated individual.

[johnmdesigner]

Today is a work day because of supplier issues. Eating my eggo waffles at the table this morning made me think about all the stupid stuff I see on a daily basis. I finished my coffee, took my Hydroxychloroquine (Lupus) and headed to work. IMO, the biggest impact on the spread of Covid is our society. We lack discipline, we only want results. We don't like to tell people "no," so we suffer the consequences of generations that aren't used to following rules. That can shift to the other extreme as well. My generation (b. 1965) was raised by the folks who grew up in the 40s and 50s, the generation after WW2. We got our vaccines because it was good for society, our parents taught us that. This current generation feels like no one can tell them what to do, it's all about them. That is reflected in the data showing the most affected groups. Walking into work this morning, I saw unvaccinated workers with their masks around their chin, wearing earbuds, and all the while being ignored by supervisors. I'm afraid that genie is out of the bottle, a lack of discipline and enforcement of process has created this monster in many parts of society, and we're paying for it.

America is a reactive society not a proactive one.
Think of all the times in history when we had the chance to avoid disaster and chose to ignore it.
Plenty of people in my generation (B.1958) are behaving like assholes at the moment.
I wish no ill will on anyone but it becomes mildly comical when the persons espousing anti-vaxing contract COVID. Then they start whining like babies. Some of them die.
Standing in a pile of shit and pretending it's a rose garden is the American way.

[beeatnik]

I wish no ill will on anyone but it becomes mildly comical when the persons espousing anti-vaxing contract COVID. Then they start whining like babies. Some of them die.

These are essentially urban legends.

Pre-vaccines, but relevant:

https://www.wired.com/story/are-covi...l-as-they-die/

[j44ke]

I think we're at a turning point in vaccinations. Google and Amazon are now mandating the shot. NY is essentially doing the same with health care workers and a number of restaurants are beginning to require a vax card to be seated. Mitch McConnell and several members of Senate Republican leadership are beginning to show contempt for those pushing anti-vax. My sense is more companies will now require a vaccination and that will only grow after the shots get full FDA approval. With millions already vaccinated and living proof the shots work I"m surprised anyone is waiting for the full FDA approval given what can happen if you contract as an unvaccinated individual.

This decision may prove more important than the FDA. State university’s vaccine policy viewed by courts as offering a choice not as forced vaccination.

https://www.npr.org/2021/07/19/10180...al-judge-rules

Apologies for rehashing my old post, but after reading that court decision, while not perfect correlation, I thought it represented a legal tea leaf pointed in the direction of vaccine requirements in general, something that gov and businesses could take as indication that the courts might not automatically embrace the refuseniks' arguments. They really don't want to unleash the ire of that group, but they want workers back and staying back, not 1/2 of them being at risk of being out sick at any moment. That's not efficient or effective and involves way too much risk. The court decision doesn't really give them cover, just encouragement.

Key word is choice. These regulations are choices. You can choose not to get a vaccine, but here is what you will have to do if that is your choice. And if you choose not to do those things, then you can choose a different employer.

Now whether "choice" dodges the requirements set forth by things like the NYPD's collective bargaining agreement with NYC, I have no idea. More legal arm wrestling to come I expect. Which is why Biden is still putting his shoulder into the FDA on final approval. I am guessing 100% here, but I think the FDA may not move as quickly as hoped after feeling burned by the Parkinson's drug approval. Final approval might not win any forthcoming arguments, but not having it will be a pita.

[takashi]

These are essentially urban legends.

Pre-vaccines, but relevant:

https://www.wired.com/story/are-covi...l-as-they-die/

I think johnmdesigner may be referring to something like this and not to what you linked:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...rates-vaccines

“I’m admitting young, healthy people to the hospital with very serious Covid infections,” wrote Cobia in a Facebook post on Sunday.

“One of the last things they do before they’re intubated is beg me for the vaccine. I hold their hand and tell them that I’m sorry, but it’s too late,” she added, referring to patients who have to be put on a ventilator.

[beeatnik]

^The anecdote above as anecdotes about vaccine injuries and myocarditis are a type of cancer to the body politic let alone public health. Asymmetrical coverage of rare or isolated cases (from both sides) is only beneficial if the proper context is provided. That has not happened at any point during this Pandemic.

[johnmdesigner]

^The anecdote above as anecdotes about vaccine injuries and myocarditis are a type of cancer to the body politic let alone public health. Asymmetrical coverage of rare or isolated cases (from both sides) is only beneficial if the proper context is provided. That has not happened at any point during this Pandemic.

Well that was helpful.

[beeatnik]

Well that was helpful.

I knew a guy who was young and healthy....

[johnmdesigner]

The sad fact remains that a certain percentage will refuse the vaccine and no amount of pressure will compel them to take it.
Progress will be delayed because of them.
The entire country could be dying in the streets but we as Americans would never accept a vaccine mandate.
Again, standing in your own shit.

[bironi]

It aint just Mericans.
The same issue is shared by many countries.
I wish it wasn't true, but????????????

[beeatnik]

It aint just Mericans.
The same issue is shared by many countries.
I wish it wasn't true, but????????????

There's a Nobel Prize waiting for a kid(s) who designs a vaccine which only requires 65% uptake to be truly effective.

[jimcav]

IF by effective, you mean providing societal protection, that isn't how it works. These are amongst the most effective vaccines ever in terms of preventing the initial COVID-19 illness of concern.

The percent uptake of vaccine in the population, needed to protect society at large, is driven by the RO of the virus in question. The original SARS-CoV-2 RO is no longer the same as the Delta version, it has a higher R0. A virus with an R0=2 needs 50% vaccine uptake, R0=3, 66.67%, R0=4, 75%, etc. Sadly it is still early as far as data, but I read one analysis that had the original R0 at 2.7 and DELTA R0 at 6, another estimated Delta R0 at 4. Studies showing viral load of a Delta-infected person is 1000 times higher than the original SARS-CoV-2.

Those refusing vaccines here are just letting the virus evolve natural gain of function variants--I'll paraphrase Reese: COVID "is out there, it cant be bargained with, it cant be reasoned with, it doesn't feel pity or remorse or fear, and it absolutely will not stop..." all it wants to do is infect, replicate, infect, replicate.

The shit show continues, and can get worse, as people continue to help it do that.

[beeatnik]

CDC coming to different conclusions. Jim, you should read this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...mask-guidance/


Key points:

Walter A. Orenstein, associate director of the Emory Vaccine Center, said he was struck by data showing that vaccinated people who became infected with delta shed just as much virus as those who were not vaccinated. The slide references an outbreak in Barnstable County, Mass., where vaccinated and unvaccinated people shed nearly identical amounts of virus.

“I think this is very important in changing things,” Orenstein said.

A person working in partnership with the CDC on investigations of the delta variant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak, said the data came from a July 4 outbreak in Provincetown, Mass. Genetic analysis of the outbreak showed that people who were vaccinated were transmitting the virus to other vaccinated people. The person said the data was “deeply disconcerting” and a “canary in the coal mine” for scientists who had seen the data.

and

If the war has changed, as the CDC states, so has the calculus of success and failure. The extreme contagiousness of delta makes herd immunity a more challenging target, infectious-disease experts said.

“I think the central issue is that vaccinated people are probably involved to a substantial extent in the transmission of delta,” Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist, wrote in an email after reviewing the CDC slides. “In some sense, vaccination is now about personal protection — protecting oneself against severe disease. Herd immunity is not relevant as we are seeing plenty of evidence of repeat and breakthrough infections.”

The document underscores what scientists and experts have been saying for months: It is time to shift how people think about the pandemic.

Kathleen Neuzil, a vaccine expert at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, said getting more people vaccinated remains the priority, but the public may also have to change its relationship to a virus almost certain to be with humanity for the foreseeable future.

“We really need to shift toward a goal of preventing serious disease and disability and medical consequences, and not worry about every virus detected in somebody’s nose,” Neuzil said. “It’s hard to do, but I think we have to become comfortable with coronavirus not going away.”

[beeatnik]

Responsible messaging:

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/...64472771624968

Kindness is good policy.


balloux2.jpeg

[jimcav]

I'm not following. Perhaps 2 different things are being conflated. I was simply pointing out that the vaccination rate needed for "herd" immunity is dependent on the R0 of the virus (developing some new vaccine that is 65% effective won't cut it if the R0 is >3) .

There is some unpublished, unreviewed data showing that the vaccinated can still transmit the DELTA variant = very concerning. I'm not following how what I said is a different conclusion though, unless you think I meant ALL we need to do is just vaccinate. I didn't mean to imply that. We MUST, but now it is a necessary, but not sufficient, action. CDC isn't saying the vaccinated are at risk of serious illness, they are saying the vaccinated can (and are) able to transmit DELTA. The continued ability of this to spread is due to people not testing, not isolating, not contact tracing, not masking, not distancing, and most recently NOT vaccinating (and likely dropping the other measures as well).

Those shocked or surprised that a vaccine which was 95% effective against the native SARS-CoV-2 is now NOT as effective against the Delta variant just don't have an understanding of immunology. Delta may not even be the end, worst version we face.

The need for additional vaccines, whether a booster due to waning effects, or redesigned due to new variants has been a potential discussed for months now. I do stand by my conclusion that everyone needs to be part of stopping the virus transmission--that remains by limiting close contact with others, masking when you must have close contact, etc etc etc. Unlike the Terminator, the virus needs US to reach the next target. Not "easy" to break that transmission chain, but not actually complex, everyone just has to do their part.

[vertical_doug]

I have a deck of 100 cards, 50 red 50 blue. If you predict the next color drawn from the deck, you win $100 dollars.
I draw the first card off the top. It's red, I throw it away.

For your turn, if you want the odds in your favor, you pick blue (50/99), if you're feeling lucky, red, (49/99). After explaining this to the person about to pick,
some people will still insist on picking red. And some will beat the odds and win seeing that as proof my fancy smancy math was wrong.

You can also frame this as an economic rational decision. If getting the vaccine is free and it will improve your outcome if you catch covid, given the extreme high cost of medical care in the US, this is like getting a discount on future medical expenses. Who doesn't want a discount? About 50% of the population it seems.

But again, people can't understand this. They insist on picking red and beating the odds by being lucky.

The problem is for the US, we have to pick 330,000,000 times and you run out of luck. Blue wins more money over time.

At this point, it seems a large number of people want divine providence, so give them divine providence.

[jclay]

Florida, under the "leadership" of Ron DeSantis, looks to be pretty much on track to set a new record for daily new cases of C19. And still he refuses to use his "goodwill" to tell folks that the reality is that wearing masks will make us safer and improve our economic situation faster than not.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

For anyone who wants a look at Florida politics by an astute observer (and 8th generation Floridian), Diane Roberts is a treasure. I've been reading and listening to her stuff since her Florida Flambeau (FSU newspaper) days in the '70s when it was truly something special.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2021/07/2...ed-no-experts/

[bcm119]

Responsible messaging:

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/...64472771624968

Kindness is good policy.


balloux2.jpeg

I kindly disagree. Getting vaccinated doesn't just protect you, it reduces the prevalence of the virus in the community. While breakthrough cases may shed the same amount of virus, there are less break through cases than unvaxxed cases. Most people's immune systems were sufficiently charged by the vaccine to prevent breakthrough infection, which reduces the spread. If everyone was vaxxed, the prevalance of the virus would likely be below a threshold that disrupts life, economy etc. My attitude to those who choose not to get vaxxed is not kind.