Ukraine

[bigbill]

I think Turkey closing the Bosporus is a good sign.

I spoke to a UK ex-military who like Bill follows this stuff. His take is the Russian strategy seems pretty incoherent, they have yet to achieve air superiority, and troops don't look particularly well supplied.

Maybe, after 30 years of Kleptocracy, all the nice stuff Putin thinks he has, doesn't exist. I have to think the US Military is watching this and is reassessing that Putin is a paper tiger.
I think he is in real trouble here. His miscalculation has made a Jewish Comedian the world's hero, and he has united everybody that matters. And even China is taking a time out.

I think that's a good read of the situation. Putin completely misread the room and now his conscripted army is fighting for a cause no one wants. The truth is that soldiers fight for each other, not a national cause, but at some point the Russians will be fighting for survival instead of capturing another country. The Ukrainians are beating the Russians at their own propaganda game by showing surrendered Russians, abandoned vehicles that ran out of fuel, and drone footage showing the destruction of Russian weapons. The Russian soldiers likely don't see these images or read the reports, but the rest of the world does.

The spring will bring the thaw and muddy conditions. The Russians will be forced to use the roadways which are well mapped with GPS coordinates tailor made for guided munitions. I think this is driving Putin's sense of urgency to take the capital.

[sailor]

I’m not expert but it seems like the play is support the Ukrainians with whatever we can give them, hit Russia with real sanctions and then hack into their media and undermine support with propaganda to pull the country out from underneath Putin. I worry a military confrontation will back him into a corner and have him use his nukes.

[HorsCat]

Paper tiger (perhaps) with nukes (no perhaps). Putin's use of nuclear weapons is not a statistically insignificant possibility at this point, at least IMO. From the perspective of the Western media, it certainly seems like this isn't going as Putin planned. If true, and if Fiona Hill's assessment of him is correct (https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...there-00012340), nothing is off the table with him.

[j44ke]

I think that's a good read of the situation. Putin completely misread the room and now his conscripted army is fighting for a cause no one wants. The truth is that soldiers fight for each other, not a national cause, but at some point the Russians will be fighting for survival instead of capturing another country. The Ukrainians are beating the Russians at their own propaganda game by showing surrendered Russians, abandoned vehicles that ran out of fuel, and drone footage showing the destruction of Russian weapons. The Russian soldiers likely don't see these images or read the reports, but the rest of the world does.

The spring will bring the thaw and muddy conditions. The Russians will be forced to use the roadways which are well mapped with GPS coordinates tailor made for guided munitions. I think this is driving Putin's sense of urgency to take the capital.

That's the thing I don't understand. They already are using the roads. And they are creating their own traffic jams. Almost like they are trying to draw foreign armies into the battle by looking like sitting ducks. Blow up a handful of tanks in key spots and the whole road is blocked.

[bigbill]

Paper tiger (perhaps) with nukes (no perhaps). Putin's use of nuclear weapons is not a statistically insignificant possibility at this point, at least IMO. From the perspective of the Western media, it certainly seems like this isn't going as Putin planned. If true, and if Fiona Hill's assessment of him is correct (https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...there-00012340), nothing is off the table with him.

Putin's stability is what concerns me most. The question will be whether his military will carry out orders to launch nuclear weapons or stage a coup. In the Cold War, the strategery was to have tactical nukes in Europe to stop the Soviet hords pouring through the Fulda Gap. The tactical battlefield weapons were needed because of the disparity in the number of Soviet troops versus a much smaller NATO standing army. That's not the case in Ukraine since they're not NATO, and we've had time to build up forces in their neighboring NATO countries.

[Scott G.]

[snip]. The tactical battlefield weapons were needed because of the disparity in the number of Soviet troops versus a much smaller NATO standing army. That's not the case in Ukraine since they're not NATO, and we've had time to build up forces in their neighboring NATO countries.

In the cold war Poland was in the Warsaw Pact, they would, in theory attack
NATO, along with the Red Army. Even during the Cold War exactly who the Poles,
Czechs and Hungarians would start shooting at was an interesting question.
Scenario was called 'Revolt in the East'.

Note that Belarus, contrary to rumor's is not going to attack Ukraine.

[bigbill]

That's the thing I don't understand. They already are using the roads. And they are creating their own traffic jams. Almost like they are trying to draw foreign armies into the battle by looking like sitting ducks. Blow up a handful of tanks in key spots and the whole road is blocked.

I saw the images. That's a conundrum for the Ukrainians. The Russians are sitting ducks if the Ukrainian air force controls the skies. The other point of view is that they're stuck there with limited fuel and other supplies. Because the road is blocked by vehicles, the Russians may not be able send fuel to the units in front. The Ukrainians might be okay with the situation which can allow for deescalation with Russia.

Although I am a Veteran of Operation Iraqi Freedom, it's hard not to draw parallels with the US and Russia. Russia expected a warmer reception in Ukraine, to be welcomed as liberators by a peace loving people. Russia now sees itself drawn into a vicious fight with people defending their homes. Even if Russia takes the entire nation, it doesn't appear that they have a plan for afterwards. It appears that a bully has gotten called on his actions and now doesn't know what to do.

[Peter Polack]

... I'm going to listen to Henryk Gorecki's Symphony No. 3, Op. 36 (also known as the Symphony of Sorrowful Songs) all day long. He was a Polish composer and this composition has 3 parts. According to Wikipedia: "The first is a 15th-century Polish lament of Mary, mother of Jesus, the second a message written on the wall of a Gestapo cell during World War II, and the third a Silesian folk song of a mother searching for her son killed by the Germans in the Silesian uprisings. The first and third movements are written from the perspective of a parent who has lost a child, and the second movement from that of a child separated from a parent."

If you are a depressed person listening to this could push you right over the edge. Fortunately I'm a happy person so I'll be okay.

I have that disc (Dawn Upshaw, vocals) and will listen to it.

Regarding Putin's possible use of nukes: I heard one scenario would be a demonstration air detonation over unoccupied water. My question is, if he used a nuke, he'd have to evacuate his troops from the area first, no? Otherwise we could assume only non-Russian troop occupied areas would be the only areas threatened with nuclear attack.

[j44ke]

From a Washington Post reporter so hope it is not fake. Music is "Walking to School" by Philip Glass & Paul Leonard-Morgan from the series Tales from the Loop.

https://twitter.com/wleaming/status/...kgNn71FtdxuuOg

[Diablo de Acero]

I have been thinking about this. Does not the prevailing winds blow west?

I have that disc (Dawn Upshaw, vocals) and will listen to it.

Regarding Putin's possible use of nukes: I heard one scenario would be a demonstration air detonation over unoccupied water. My question is, if he used a nuke, he'd have to evacuate his troops from the area first, no? Otherwise we could assume only non-Russian troop occupied areas would be the only areas threatened with nuclear attack.

[vertical_doug]

I have been thinking about this. Does not the prevailing winds blow west?

North west on the westerlies which is why Chernobyl nuclear leak was detected in Europe way back in1986

I think you will see wider use of thermobaric weapons and maybe a poison gas. I doubt he goes for tactical nuke.

I think if he uses a nuke, even tactically, his days are numbered as rational actors in Russia will do a coup. Russia may be a rogue state, but it is not a death cult.

[rabo]

I wonder if that still standing convoy is not attacked on purpose for some reason. Ukraine has Turkeys drones apparently that proved effectively already.

[jclay]

Intro to the linked article: “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine took much of the world by surprise. It is an unprovoked and unjustified attack that will go down in history as one of the major war crimes of the 21st century, argues Noam Chomsky in the exclusive interview for Truthout that follows.”

https://truthout.org/articles/noam-c...lmq9eaeblaSEYo

[classtimesailer]

While doing a little black history read aloud last week, student questions revealed that the most vocal students had takes similar to most of the posters here. For the most part, they possess little knowledge of current or historical events, or geography. Weird. Right?. The alignment is uncanny. This week they revealed that this "knowledge" was acquired via TikTok.

Edit: Chomsky manufacturing consent for those too old for TikTok.

"Meanwhile, we should do anything we can to provide meaningful support for those valiantly defending their homeland against cruel aggressors, for those escaping the horrors, and for the thousands of courageous Russians publicly opposing the crime of their state at great personal risk, a lesson to all of us."

[j44ke]

While doing a little black history read aloud last week, student questions revealed that the most vocal students had takes similar to most of the posters here. For the most part, they possess little knowledge of current or historical events, or geography. Weird. Right?. The alignment is uncanny. This week they revealed that this "knowledge" was acquired via TikTok.

Edit: Chomsky manufacturing consent for those too old for TikTok.

"Meanwhile, we should do anything we can to provide meaningful support for those valiantly defending their homeland against cruel aggressors, for those escaping the horrors, and for the thousands of courageous Russians publicly opposing the crime of their state at great personal risk, a lesson to all of us."

I don't understand what you are saying here.

[monadnocky]

While doing a little black history read aloud last week, student questions revealed that the most vocal students had takes similar to most of the posters here. For the most part, they possess little knowledge of current or historical events, or geography. Weird. Right?. The alignment is uncanny. This week they revealed that this "knowledge" was acquired via TikTok.

Edit: Chomsky manufacturing consent for those too old for TikTok.

"Meanwhile, we should do anything we can to provide meaningful support for those valiantly defending their homeland against cruel aggressors, for those escaping the horrors, and for the thousands of courageous Russians publicly opposing the crime of their state at great personal risk, a lesson to all of us."

Must admit I'm confused as well. Most of the posters here come across as possessing quite a bit of knowledge about the topic - ? And could you elaborate re: Chomsky?

[classtimesailer]

I agree that most of the posters here do possess quite a bit of knowledge about the topic. It is interesting to me that my students, whose SES and standardized test scores are at the opposite tail of the curve have similar opinions.

That sentence that I pulled from the recent Chomsky interview would be one that Chomsky and Herman, back in the day, would have used to illustrate how "respected" voices contribute to the manufacture of consent.

[monadnocky]

Got it, thanks.

[rwsaunders]

Sidewalk art in front of the Russian Ambassador’s residence in DC….I didn’t have time to make it to the Russian Embassy, but I did get to hear a presentation from Ukraine’s Ambassador to the US yesterday, as she ZOOMed our conference.

[j44ke]

I have a bad feeling that Putin is moving on to Chechnya tactics. Blow up stuff and keep blowing it up until everyone is dead or surrenders.