Originally Posted by
vertical_doug
Let's be a little more accurate with facts.
Amazon went public in May 1997. It started in 1995. Amazon has been loss making 9 of 24 years. Not 14 of 20.
Fundamentally, a growth company would be financed differently with different cash flow projections. Amazon has always invested heavily in the business YOY. Yearly capex was large relative to revenues, and analysts always said as soon as Bezos stops the heavy CAPEX, Amazon will just print money. The reality is the capex/growth cycle has been longer and larger then anyone probably ever imagined. Bezos and Amazon never defaulted on debt.
Real Estate, on the other hand, is financed with debt/equity to be repaid with cash flows after the project is completed, but unlike a growth company , real estate is finite so cash flow is much simpler to model.
For Trump to go bankrupt somewhere between 4 or 6 times, his organization keeps getting the model wrong.
It's possible Trump bankrupts his businesses on purpose by loading the business with debt while paying himself a large dividend effectively draining the business of cash. This was a popular tactic of some early 80's/90's LBO guys like Ira Rennert. Take a company private, issue a lot of debt, use the debt to pay yourself a large dividend, eventually the company fails to service the debt and falls into bankruptcy. This is borderline sharp practice, but not necessarily illegal.
Repeat until you become persona non grata in the finance industry.
Another important fact, unlike Trump, Amazon does provide audited financials from a independent auditor with real numbers. We can have some confidence the numbers being discussed are real since financial analysts go through these with a fine tooth comb.
There is a certain amount of hate the game, not the player here as NYC real estate is not the cleanest of businesses. But even in a dirty game, some players play dirtier than others.
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