Covid19

[Saab2000]

I am skeptical.

As am I. But I think my skepticism is aimed more at private business than government. We willingly give up enormous amounts of information to private companies. Anyone use health tracking information with their smart watch? We turn our health over to private health companies all the time. I willingly give up a lot of information by being on Zwift and using Strava, which knows where I go on my rides and walks. Apple knows where I go as well.

I don't believe everything is always nefarious but I'm not naive about the incredible amount of information we already give up.

I'm concerned about cameras and microphones on devices in my private home. We all have computers and phones with both. I have zero doubt Apple and Google and Amazon are watching and listening, or have the capability to do so when they want. Not everything they collect do they collect with bad intent, but no doubt it could be used for negative purposes if someone were motivated to do so.

[monadnocky]

As am I. But I think my skepticism is aimed more at private business than government....

I'm continually amazed at our collective willingness to hand over troves of personal information to corporations, but we get all paranoid (and rightfully so) regarding the government's capture of private data. I believe that the former is usually more nefarious compared to the latter 90% of the time, but I'm also not naive enough to believe that Uncle Sam has my best interests at heart.

[j44ke]

I see almost no difference between government and business. And just because we already give up some information, doesn't mean a laissez-faire attitude to other information is a requirement. But medical information is still perhaps one of the more private aspects of daily life, given relatively intact government regulations on handling of medical records. And I think that's why there are so many things being developed over the last 5-10 years to try to crack it loose.

But this is the Covid 19 forum and not the political forum. I apologize for side-tracking things here, especially since I am supposed to be a moderator. Let's get back to actual medical information. Further discussion of privacy issues can happen one thread over. This thread functions much better when immunological details are discussed.

[bironi]

Jorn, Josh,
Didn't this thread begin as a survey?
I've never participated with a vote because I never liked any of the options.
That still applies.
I think this is a thread on a ventilator.
By

[Too Tall]

Jorn, Josh,
Didn't this thread begin as a survey?
I've never participated with a vote because I never liked any of the options.
That still applies.
I think this is a thread on a ventilator.
By

It is a generic COVID19 thread which includes a survey. If we have all learned a few things along the way it may be indicated by less interest (here) which is a good thing. Seek your answers yeah?

[j44ke]

I keep hearing "turning point" and watching the numbers it doesn't seem like anything is turning. Just up and down in place. This article seems to have some really good explanations why.

What the Coronavirus Models Can’t See

[thollandpe]

I keep hearing "turning point" and watching the numbers it doesn't seem like anything is turning. Just up and down in place. This article seems to have some really good explanations why.

What the Coronavirus Models Can’t See

Part of what has happened here is that we've allowed the term "peak" and "plateau" to be perverted. We're concerned with the amount of active infections vs. time, or deaths vs. time. The slope of the graph, or the first derivative for fellow victims of calculus, is infections per day, or deaths per day. The slope of the line, which you can also graph. If that graph levels off, then we're talking about the 2nd derivative or whether the line we're really concerned with is concave upward (accelerating) or downward (decelerating). That has nothing to do with whether or not the current rate (slope) is sustainable or not.

We cyclists know this because we know what a course profile looks like. We know that the Mt. Washington auto road is one motherfucker of a climb. We know we are not "past the peak" when the grade slacks off at mile 2 to less than 10%. And that it does not "plateau" between miles 3 and 5 because it's a relatively steady and average 12%. And certainly when that grade relaxes to less than 8% for a couple of brief pitches in the last mile we know that's not when to declare victory. We know that the peak is the top of the mountain. Not where the grade backs off.

[j44ke]

That's a good analogy and not just because we're all cyclists here.

I feel like I keep having to pinch myself. I hear and read the words and then I look at the numbers and I feel like I must be missing something. But then I feel the pinch.

[ides1056]

I am not certain where to insert this article, but here seems as good as any place.

I talked with a friend about meeting for a ride today. This was just going to be a meeting on the road. Then last night he asked me to dinner: bring a bottle of wine, some bread.

Awaking this morning I consider the logistics of doing this: waiting in line for the wine, again for the bread. Driving more than an hour to his place instead of halfway. Then the matter of going into another person's house, something I have not done in a longer period of time than I can recall, maybe six weeks. When I went for a ride yesterday I arrived at the bottom of the hill on which I live to find three cyclists approaching the intersection. One of them is a person I know, and for a second I thought about joining them, but instead told them I was just starting and went my own way. Riding in close proximity with three others wasn't something I felt comfortable doing. When I passed people on the road who were out walking or riding I gave them a very wide berth.

I am not ready to change this approach. People have been relaxing the past few weeks- I see this on my rides: large groups congregating without SD or masks- and I expect in a few weeks' time this behavior will have a statistical effect on the local rate of infection. I'd rather not find out the hard way myself.

I read this article just now, and though it's a dire forecast I think it's one that fairly represents the immediate future:

Opinion | She Predicted the Coronavirus. What Does She Foresee Next? - The New York Times

[j44ke]

Just read that and yes it comports with my sense of how this is going to shake out.

Friends called yesterday and asked to stop by for a distanced visit outside. That worked sort of. They are very good friends who we haven’t seen since November. But they didn’t have masks and there were other mishaps with distance and so forth. Doesn’t take much.

There will be a lot of incidental pressure to act normally and no one wants to be the one who says stand back or no. But that is an elemental part of staying healthy and will be for quite a while.

[johnmdesigner]

My upstairs neighbor started hammering on the bedroom wall at 6:30am this morning.
So, yes in some small way I wish things would return to normal and certain aholes would go back to their grinding office routines.

Yesterday was a beautiful day in NYC and my wife and I broke our confinement by driving from Harlem down to the East Village to get take-out from our favorite Thai restaurant.
Driving down the West Side Highway and the park was completely full. People walking in groups, riding in groups, picnicking in groups, with and without masks. The cops in new safety vests standing around in large groups doing God knows what.
The cops were swarming around the Western Beef on 16th Street apparently trying to break up the large crowd that had formed out front.
Not a lot of mask wearers in the East Village and large groups of drinking youth forming in front of supposedly closed bars on Avenue A.
Flying back up a deserted Park Ave and some locals attempting a social distancing get together with their neighbors in the grassy medium in the middle of the Avenue. Mother's looked worried. The pigeons looked perplexed.
Came home enjoyed a Thai feast.

Got woken up by my asshole upstairs neighbor hammering on the wall at 6:30 am.

[Mark Kelly]

A small addition to Todd's post above: IMO the best number for working out whether you are going uphill or down is the effective transmission rate (abbreviated R_e or R_t). Australia uses a 5 day rolling average, the site Rt: Effective Reproduction Number has US data using a 7 day rolling average, in both cases a number above 1 indicates things getting worse, below 1 indicates things getting better.

Note the changes in the numbers once lockdowns go into place. It is reasonable to expect changes in the other direction when they are lifted. It is also worth noting that the error bounds are fairly large so some of the numbers that look to be under 1 might actually be over.

You can also use the number to get a rough idea of the shape of the future curve but you have to make a guess at the infectious period. If the period is n days the equation future cases = current cases x e ^{(ln (Rt - 1)) * days / n} gives the case number per day. Using reasonable estimates for the infectious period and the current Rt numbers gives curves with quite long tails.

[Matthew Strongin]

A small addition to Todd's post above: IMO the best number for working out whether you are going uphill or down is the effective transmission rate (abbreviated R_e or R_t). Australia uses a 5 day rolling average, the site Rt: Effective Reproduction Number has US data using a 7 day rolling average, in both cases a number above 1 indicates things getting worse, below 1 indicates things getting better.

Note the changes in the numbers once lockdowns go into place. It is reasonable to expect changes in the other direction when they are lifted. It is also worth noting that the error bounds are fairly large so some of the numbers that look to be under 1 might actually be over.

You can also use the number to get a rough idea of the shape of the future curve but you have to make a guess at the infectious period. If the period is n days the equation future cases = current cases x e ^{(ln (Rt - 1)) * days / n} gives the case number per day. Using reasonable estimates for the infectious period and the current Rt numbers gives curves with quite long tails.

Mark, this is a really great resource. Thanks for sharing. The change due to lockdown is quite noticeable. Taking my state, Florida, as an example, the state-wide lockdown went into effect after the Rt had dropped below 1, but our Gov was weeks behind our local county government. The lockdowns in South Florida, the most impacted area, are just about a week before the value drops, right in line with other states. My takeaway is that the shelter in place orders are working. Probably a comment for the other thread, but it's too bad we're rolling them back already.

[WFSTEKL]

It is interesting that the poll results attached to this thread (66% expect to be infected, and 33% expect to receive a get out of jail free card) represent the percent of the population that is required to achieve herd immunity.

[Mark Kelly]

66% is the number for herd immunity if the basic reproduction number (R₀) is 3. Different values for R₀ change the herd percentage (R₀-1/ R₀). Also note this is absent mitigation efforts like social distancing, in their presence the effective reproduction number is relevant (see link above).

Nobody yet knows what the actual R₀ for SARS CoV-2 is, estimates range from 1.4 to over 3.

[Chik]

As am I. But I think my skepticism is aimed more at private business than government.

Same here. Leaving aside who is in government at this particular moment, I am completely fine with the government having that information, and by that, I mean either having access to the information or being custodians of the information.

What does irk me is the inevitable involvement of commercial enterprises having access or custody of that information without extremely well defined boundaries of what they can do with that information and the people's / government's ability to enforce those boundaries.

In the meantime, full steam ahead: Coronavirus UK: health passports 'possible in months' | Politics | The Guardian

[gt6267a]

Mark, this is a really great resource. Thanks for sharing. The change due to lockdown is quite noticeable. Taking my state, Florida, as an example, the state-wide lockdown went into effect after the Rt had dropped below 1, but our Gov was weeks behind our local county government. The lockdowns in South Florida, the most impacted area, are just about a week before the value drops, right in line with other states. My takeaway is that the shelter in place orders are working. Probably a comment for the other thread, but it's too bad we're rolling them back already.

GA is opening and pictures of crowds are all over the news and FB. It seems likely the little GA logo will slide to the right and values will increase over the next few weeks. Its frustrating to watch.

Meanwhile, we are not immune to a little cabin fever. We went out for a casual bike ride. The crowds were light and distancing was happening. We got there early and crowds were building when we left.

[Matthew Strongin]

GA is opening and pictures of crowds are all over the news and FB. It seems likely the little GA logo will slide to the right and values will increase over the next few weeks. Its frustrating to watch.

Meanwhile, we are not immune to a little cabin fever. We went out for a casual bike ride. The crowds were light and distancing was happening. We got there early and crowds were building when we left.

Frustrating to watch is spot on. Here's a gem from Miami Beach: Access Denied

Short version, they opened the parks, the parks were flooded, police gave out tons of warnings, and now they closed the parks.

[j44ke]

I put this in the political thread too, but since we've been discussing counting and numbers here, I'll put the link to the brief synopsis in the NYTimes on an internal FEMA report leaked to them that aggregates government modeling for the next several months.

Coronavirus Live Updates: Trump Administration Models Predict Near Doubling of Daily Death Toll by June - The New York Times

Edit: The Washington Post does a better analysis and summary of knowns and unknowns.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...691_story.html

[Paul Jacobs]

I had not seen this elsewhere and I thought the idea of monitoring the epidemic through sewage samples was interesting

Coronavirus: Sewage study could predict second Covid-19 peak - BBC News

but apparently the idea was already reported a couple of weeks ago

Coronavirus: Newcastle University tracking virus in sewage - BBC News