Covid19

[j44ke]

^^That is somehow simultaneously distressing and reassuring.

[j44ke]

NYC law firms are one-by-one going to client business-related travel only. Personal travel allowed with understanding that quarantine situations are possible even if you are not sick that would prevent a timely return - meaning if you have prep for a big trial starting after your vacation, use your best judgement.

My wife had a conference in Mexico City coming up in two weeks. Important one for her, one she would like to be invited to again, good for client development, so cancelling based on her own judgement is diplomatically awkward for all sorts of reasons and might result in her NOT getting invited back. Having the firm make this policy mitigates any potential awkwardness.

Addendum: We had dinner with our friends last night. He has gotten a cancer diagnosis, surgery in a week. His wife is another super cool lawyer, a pal of my wife’s. Do you hug and kiss hello and goodbye? Yes. Yes you do.

[sk_tle]

Well, as a french guy kissing has been a main subject recently. This is part of our modern culture and a way to show our appreciation to someone. It is probably sane to limit it to a minimum but I would hate seeing that thing disappear. Shaking hands is just not the same.

[Too Tall]

Well, as a french guy kissing has been a main subject recently. This is part of our modern culture and a way to show our appreciation to someone. It is probably sane to limit it to a minimum but I would hate seeing that thing disappear. Shaking hands is just not the same.

Three times for family yo.

When I was a kid mom worked as a microbiologist at NIH in building 61. Other than wallops island that was the place where the nastiest of nasties were studied. My fear of these things when they are handled with professional care is calm cool and trusted. Wash your hands, kiss your friends.

On a sad note for Matt Baselworld is canceled. Chit just got real.

[Saab2000]

Can cancelling everything really contain it? Is the rather severe reaction worldwide based on good science and policy or is it panic based?

It seems unlikely that we can contain this but it does seem possible we can push the world’s economy off a cliff by overreacting. Or am I naive?

[sk_tle]

Can cancelling everything really contain it? Is the rather severe reaction worldwide based on good science and policy or is it panic based?

It seems unlikely that we can contain this but it does seem possible we can push the world’s economy off a cliff by overreacting. Or am I naive?

I think the idea is not to contain it but slow down and spread the epidemic over time so the healthcare is not saturated.

Plus if you don't cancel you are shown the finger as the careless one. There seems to be a lot of public pressure.

[deano]

Can cancelling everything really contain it? Is the rather severe reaction worldwide based on good science and policy or is it panic based?

It seems unlikely that we can contain this but it does seem possible we can push the world’s economy off a cliff by overreacting. Or am I naive?

Not an expert, but Bruce Ayward of the WHO had some good insights in this interview... In it, he parses out a few things that did seem to contribute to containment... he seems to come down on an educated public being the prime thing that will stop it. But also speed in containment. So cancellations? IDK. but it was an interesting read and he didn't seem to paint major public responses in outbreaks as overreactions compared to some other, more rational response.

"Julia Belluz
Okay, so most of the measures used in China to stop the virus were traditional public health moves that are broadly accepted — and the draconian measures were rarer. Is there any sense of what in China’s toolkit was most effective?

Bruce Aylward
I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. Another big takeaway is that even when you have substantial transmission with a lot of clusters — because people are looking at the situation in some countries now and going, “Oh, gosh, what can be done?” — what China demonstrates is if you settle down, roll up your sleeves, and begin that systematic work of case finding and contact tracing, you definitely can change the shape of the outbreak, take the heat out of it, and prevent a lot of people from getting sick and a lot of the most vulnerable from dying."

[ides1056]

I think the biggest worry is that health care systems will be overwhelmed resulting in much higher mortality rates.

[Chik]

Andrew Weill discussing Corvid-19
Lot of hype, CDC is a great resource

One of the things that drives Dr. Weil crazy is that people who are sick don't stay home- Amen!!!

Dr. Andrew Weil - Coronavirus (COVID-19) prevention tactics… -Mike G

Can cancelling everything really contain it? Is the rather severe reaction worldwide based on good science and policy or is it panic based?

It seems unlikely that we can contain this but it does seem possible we can push the world’s economy off a cliff by overreacting. Or am I naive?

i think one significant problem is the one highlighted above, whether knowingly or unknowingly. I wouldn't want to go to any major trade fair, whether as a buyer or an exhibitor, much less the latter.

Baselworld Hall 1 in particular gives me the shivers. Even in a "normal" year, I try not to stop and think about the potentials for contagions. All those people inside the hall shaking hands and kissing, insufficient ventilation and circulation... All those people in the loos, the overpriced cafes, outside the main entrance... OK, perhaps I'm a bit nutters. Can you tell trade fairs gross me out?

[Matthew Strongin]

On a sad note for Matt Baselworld is canceled. Chit just got real.

Anyone want to buy some airplane tickets from Miami to Zurich on the cheap? Bummed they "postponed" it, but I'm totally cool with avoiding large gatherings in the general proximity of Italy.

[Chik]

Anyone want to buy some airplane tickets from Miami to Zurich on the cheap? Bummed they "postponed" it, but I'm totally cool with avoiding large gatherings in the general proximity of Italy.

Serious question: With so many brands having ditched the rip-off fair, are there enough brands remaining to make the transcontinental trip worthwhile, with or without the Corona bug?

[Vancouverdave]

WTF, we're freaking out over a heavy-duty cold bug but we continue to excuse and ignore the (mostly) gasoline powered killer of 40K Americans per year? How stupid and easily panicked are we as a culture and a nation?

[Matthew Strongin]

Serious question: With so many brands having ditched the rip-off fair, are there enough brands remaining to make the transcontinental trip worthwhile, with or without the Corona bug?

Way OT (and a little vague), but for the brands that matter in my world, yes.

[GrantM]

WTF, we're freaking out over a heavy-duty cold bug but we continue to excuse and ignore the (mostly) gasoline powered killer of 40K Americans per year? How stupid and easily panicked are we as a culture and a nation?

I think most problems "action plan" is about putting the burden on the individual, and not the government actually doing anything expensive.
Like, don't fix roads, make cyclists wear helmets. In a pandemic, the first thing you do is tell individuals to stay home from work at their own cost.

-g

[zachateseverything]

WTF, we're freaking out over a heavy-duty cold bug but we continue to excuse and ignore the (mostly) gasoline powered killer of 40K Americans per year? How stupid and easily panicked are we as a culture and a nation?

It's not a heavy duty cold bug. The initial fatality rate seems to be quite high, especially if you're older or have other underlying health issues. I get it, it's easy to look at this and go "only 11 americans have died so far. this isn't that big of a problem." The problem with that line of thinking is that without diligence it's very easy for this to become a huge issue. We've got a potentially lethal disease with a long gestation period that's easily transmitted between people just from close proximity. We don't have a ton of treatment or preventative measures for it yet.

Many cyclists and pedestrians are killed by cars every year but there are things an individual can do to largely mitigate that risk and exposure. This virus though? 3.4% (the current global fatality rate for those infected) of 330 million (the total US population) is 11.2 million. That's a reasonable outcome if this is allowed to run wild. That's why this is a big topic of conversation globally.

[mjbabcock]

zachateseverything has a good point there. When you look at the mortality rate, 2 children out of 1000 is insane. Can you imagine 4-6 children at every large highschool dying? It's a tragedy when one commits suicide or dies in a car accident...but this mortality rate is pretty alarming. Think about a big campus, 20-40,000 students...then do the math. A big place like Ohio State would have 800 students die if they all got infected (the fact that it is novel speaks to a much higher rate of infection as no one has resistance built up).

I don't advocate panic or stocking up on TP, but this is not "just another common cold"

[Blue Jays]

/\/\/\

Excellent, reasoned, and pragmatic posts above, @Zachhateseverything and @mjbabcock.
For the reasons you mentioned, we must continue to remain focused as a society towards health.

The more cavalier thoughts we see are likely made by youthful folks with parents still in their 40s.
It looms closer to home when we ourselves or family are elderly/compromised. Your posts are solid.

[funcrusher]

It's not a heavy duty cold bug. The initial fatality rate seems to be quite high, especially if you're older or have other underlying health issues. I get it, it's easy to look at this and go "only 11 americans have died so far. this isn't that big of a problem." The problem with that line of thinking is that without diligence it's very easy for this to become a huge issue. We've got a potentially lethal disease with a long gestation period that's easily transmitted between people just from close proximity. We don't have a ton of treatment or preventative measures for it yet.

Many cyclists and pedestrians are killed by cars every year but there are things an individual can do to largely mitigate that risk and exposure. This virus though? 3.4% (the current global fatality rate for those infected) of 330 million (the total US population) is 11.2 million. That's a reasonable outcome if this is allowed to run wild. That's why this is a big topic of conversation globally.

that mortality rate is of those infected...you're presupposing that everyone in the U.S. gets it to get to 11.2MM

[GrantM]

that mortality rate is of those infected...you're presupposing that everyone in the U.S. gets it to get to 11.2MM

Even at the average flu infection rate of 10% of the us population (approx 30 million cases annually)
1-3 million deaths from C-19 would be an off the charts tragedy level event.

It's clear that we don't want even 10% of the population to get it.

-g

[zachateseverything]

that mortality rate is of those infected...you're presupposing that everyone in the U.S. gets it to get to 11.2MM

yes. that's obviously the "we take absolutely zero precautions" number. to circle back to the post I responded to, we lose 40k people a year to cars after we've implemented some standards for getting a driver's license, established rules of the road, and put in place an enforcement mechanism for those rules. it's not perfect but it's been addressed at a fairly detailed level. What would the vehicle fatalities look like if we let people point a car in any direction, at any speed, and at any location they wanted? what would the media coverage be if cars just sort of appeared over the period of a couple months and started maiming and killing random people? probably sensational and significant.

but let's say the bogie for something we need to give a shit about is 100k. That's about 1/6th the number of Americans who die every year from heart disease. The math says that to get to 100k deaths we would need 3.4M infections or about 1% of the population. About 3% of the adult population has the flu on any given day.