Ukraine

[classtimesailer]

Digging the signs of Spring in the planter.

[jclay]

John Joseph Mearsheimer's little history lesson is worth listening to; the whole thing; and I will reiterate my abject disagreement with posts like #62 . Actually going to war is on Putin; taking actions that would predictably land us here, and tragically Ukraine squarely in the cross-hairs of Russia, is on us.

If Barbara Tuchman was alive she'd be able to add yet another chapter to her March of Folly, From Troy to Viet Nam; well, in the last 20 years or so quite a few.

[bigbill]

I have a bad feeling that Putin is moving on to Chechnya tactics. Blow up stuff and keep blowing it up until everyone is dead or surrenders.

Yeah, I don't see Ukraine turning the tide or the Russians giving up. The Russians are good at wars of attrition. The troops that are leading the invasion never trained together and are supposedly from eastern Russia. A non-cohesive force of Russians taking gains by getting killed because they have more troops and equipment to perish. Hopefully the result is a more cohesive Europe with better plans for defense against the next Russian move, like into Moldavia.

[bcm119]

I agree that most of the posters here do possess quite a bit of knowledge about the topic. It is interesting to me that my students, whose SES and standardized test scores are at the opposite tail of the curve have similar opinions.

That sentence that I pulled from the recent Chomsky interview would be one that Chomsky and Herman, back in the day, would have used to illustrate how "respected" voices contribute to the manufacture of consent.

That is interesting, and I won't speculate on reasons behind it.

I have noticed though, the people just a little younger than me who don't remember the fear of living in peak cold war era seem more inclined to support US military intervention. Part of that may be more use of social media, which is tugging at heart strings. But a quick read of the Russian nuke capability on wikipedia should bring those feelings into perspective.

We're in a situation where the options are terrible or even worse. It is heartbreaking.

[vertical_doug]

John Joseph Mearsheimer's little history lesson is worth listening to; the whole thing; and I will reiterate my abject disagreement with posts like #62 . Actually going to war is on Putin; taking actions that would predictably land us here, and tragically Ukraine squarely in the cross-hairs of Russia, is on us.

But John, if you follow your argument to it's logical conclusion, then you think Ukraine has no right to self determination. I think Ukraine Gov has freely chosen to pursue a path to Nato and democracy.

If a religious conservative father thinks his daughter has no right to speak to a boy, and a boy speaks to his daughter, and he beats his daughter. Is it the boy's fault the daughter was beaten, or is the father just a complete asshole and the daughter was always going to be beaten at some point?

I think with Ukraine, Putin is the asshole father who was always going to beat the country. Nato excuse is a ruse. And why does he get to make the choice?

[Venga]

Yeah, I don't see Ukraine turning the tide or the Russians giving up. The Russians are good at wars of attrition. The troops that are leading the invasion never trained together and are supposedly from eastern Russia. A non-cohesive force of Russians taking gains by getting killed because they have more troops and equipment to perish. Hopefully the result is a more cohesive Europe with better plans for defense against the next Russian move, like into Moldavia.

They still, eventually, pulled out of Afghanistan, but I agree they are more suited to wars of attrition than democracies.

[classtimesailer]

"Actually going to war is on Putin; taking actions that would predictably land us here, and tragically Ukraine squarely in the cross-hairs of Russia, is on us."

If Russia were to end "hostilities" now, us actions would continue.

Russia is defending herself now and has been since 1917 (with a short break during the Yeltsin era).

[vertical_doug]

They still, eventually, pulled out of Afghanistan, but I agree they are more suited to wars of attrition than democracies.

I think they pulled out of Afghanistan because it was bankrupting the Soviet Union. They could not afford it. I think Russia is shocked on the financial consequences of this war so far and will quickly run out of cash. The next big event will be China and the IMF. As an IMF member, Russia can draw on the fund up to the size of it's economy, however, USD, JPY, EUR, JPY are essentially off limits. It leaves China and whether they will help Russia finance the war with IMF and Yuan funding. (I'm not sure, and China is also feeling the heat has losing Ukrainian wheat is a huge problem for them. The Chinese leadership is always sensitive food inflation as it relates to political stability.) If the IMF closes access to funding, it will be a great step in the right direction.

India is another country really screwed here with the loss of Ukraine wheat.

War is just another crime and you have to follow the money to know what's really going on.

[jclay]

then you think Ukraine has no right to self determination.

I think with Ukraine, Putin is the asshole father who was always going to beat the country. Nato excuse is a ruse. And why does he get to make the choice?

I absolutely believe in the right of self determination; and I believe it for every country. Sadly it often isn't possible. This is a period of history in which it isn't possible for Ukraine, and we should have known that. And we should have known that if we kept pushing we (or Ukraine) would, sooner or later, most likely, face serious consequences. Sending Victoria Nuland over in 2014 was a huge mistake for the health and well being of Ukraine and the bill just landed on the table.

Putin is definitely the asshole; he pulled the trigger and I hope he pays a monstrous price; I hope he rots in hell. But US hubris had us making numerous decisions that, predictably, had a high probability of precipitating this attack. That is on us. We're supposed to be...well, at least in my mind, smarter than that.

Re NATO: 1) Looking at NATO through our eyes....rather sanitized eyes I think, is a mistake; we needed to see NATO and it's history of action, through the eyes of Russia and, 2) It doesn't matter if NATO was a ruse; removing the ruse increases the cost (within the court of world opinion and action) of leveraging it.

And using your analogy, if the boy knew what was likely to happen to the daughter if they spoke....he, if he was wise and considerate fellow, would not speak to her. We had people who knew but they, as usual, got ignored.

And I totally subscribe to your "follow the $" comment; it's built into the foundation.

[gregl]

"Actually going to war is on Putin; taking actions that would predictably land us here, and tragically Ukraine squarely in the cross-hairs of Russia, is on us."

If Russia were to end "hostilities" now, us actions would continue.

Russia is defending herself now and has been since 1917 (with a short break during the Yeltsin era).

I think we may have read different history books. The books I read didn't represent the collectivization of agriculture (and resulting famine), assassinations, mass executions, prison/concentration camps for political prisoners, and invasions of Hungary and Czechoslovakia as "defending herself." Note that this does in no way defend US foreign interventionalism. Two wrongs don't make a right and all that. But this is all on Putin. Had Russia moved toward a true democracy as it appeared to do in the early 1990s, there would likely be no inclination for former Soviet states to join NATO. The current epic, human tragedy in Ukraine is all on Putin.

Greg

[Venga]

I think they pulled out of Afghanistan because it was bankrupting the Soviet Union. They could not afford it. I think Russia is shocked on the financial consequences of this war so far and will quickly run out of cash. The next big event will be China and the IMF. As an IMF member, Russia can draw on the fund up to the size of it's economy, however, USD, JPY, EUR, JPY are essentially off limits. It leaves China and whether they will help Russia finance the war with IMF and Yuan funding. (I'm not sure, and China is also feeling the heat has losing Ukrainian wheat is a huge problem for them. The Chinese leadership is always sensitive food inflation as it relates to political stability.) If the IMF closes access to funding, it will be a great step in the right direction.

India is another country really screwed here with the loss of Ukraine wheat.

War is just another crime and you have to follow the money to know what's really going on.

Yes, I agree with all of this, and it, well it backs up my point.

Though only "select" Russian banks were pulled from SWIFT, and they also have SPFS, their own processing system.

I actually think the next move will be an oil embargo on Russia, I think this will happen before China or the IMF move.

[72gmc]

Russia is defending herself now and has been since 1917 (with a short break during the Yeltsin era).

I'd say Russia, actually Russia's current leader, is defending the idea that the scope of the old Soviet Union is its rightful inheritance. That idea is as outdated as the idea of sowing democracy through US intervention. A leadership model based on old men following old plans continues to create trouble around the world.

[BBB]

I have a bad feeling that Putin is moving on to Chechnya tactics. Blow up stuff and keep blowing it up until everyone is dead or surrenders.

And in doing so, Putin has and will paint himself into a corner.

The ICC is opening investigations in war crimes, neutral countries are taking a stance (the Swiss through their banking system and the Swedish by the provision of arms and equipment) and of course sanctions are being imposed. Even the UCI has had a say!

Things aren't just going to re-set to normal for Putin.

[classtimesailer]

I think we may have read different history books.
Greg

Obviously. You missed the whole white army thing. Russian agriculture has a history of collectivization that predates the nation state. Your point of nobody/nothing being perfect is noted but who in their right mind would want US style "democracy" to win this game by being the last player on the board? Yeltsin's distribution of Russian resources to his gangster friends was more a movement toward oligarchy than "true democracy". Hopefully, Russia will recover fully from that fiasco.

[classtimesailer]

Rivendell is selling help Ukraine T-shirts. Did he sell help Yugoslavia T-shirts? This is crazy.

[BBB]

Rivendell is selling help Ukraine T-shirts. Did he sell help Yugoslavia T-shirts? This is crazy.

I thought the elves hated to get involved due to the weaknesses of pesky men...

[htwoopup]

I am violating my own personal standards here by posting this before fact checking (which I will now do), but I wanted to jump on it because @vertical_doug’s point about war being a crime where you just follow the money really struck me.

This is Ukraine pictured on top of a map of Europe.


EFC8A464-B6FE-492A-B10E-D27883A1C84F.png
It's the biggest European country, bigger than France.

Donbass territories, occupied by Russia, are as big as Switzerland.

What is happening now is not a small local conflict, but a hazard for the whole world.»

Orig. by Olena Karpenko

For those who ask:

“Why does Ukraine matter?”

1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;

2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;

2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's reserves);

2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);

2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;

3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)

4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;

7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)

Ukraine is an agricultural country:

1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;

3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world's volume);

1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;

2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;

3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;

4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;

5th largest rye producer in the world;

5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);

8th place in the world in wheat exports;

9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;

16th place in the world in cheese exports.

Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.

Ukraine is an industrialized country:

1st in Europe in ammonia production;

2-е Europe's and 4th largest natural gas pipeline system in the world (142.5 bln cubic meters of gas throughput capacity in the EU);

3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;

3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);

3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;

3rd largest iron exporter in the world

4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;

4th world's largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;

4th place in the world in clay exports

4th place in the world in titanium exports

8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;

9th place in the world in exports of defense industry products;

10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).

Source: Andriy Futey

Ukrainian Congress Committee of America Ukrainian World Congress - Свiтовий Конґрес Українців

[theflashunc]

I'd say Russia, actually Russia's current leader, is defending the idea that the scope of the old Soviet Union is its rightful inheritance. That idea is as outdated as the idea of sowing democracy through US intervention. A leadership model based on old men following old plans continues to create trouble around the world.

As several historians and analysts smarter than me have pointed out, his claims aren't Soviet. They are Tsarist. He's been open about the notion that Lenin gave away portions of what he views as territories and peoples under the Russian umbrella.

He may be a product of the Cold War, but his views of the legacy of the Russian state are all pre-Soviet Revolution.

[72gmc]

As several historians and analysts smarter than me have pointed out, his claims aren't Soviet. They are Tsarist. He's been open about the notion that Lenin gave away portions of what he views as territories and peoples under the Russian umbrella.

He may be a product of the Cold War, but his views of the legacy of the Russian state are all pre-Soviet Revolution.

Thanks for that, seriously. I’ve read a few books on the WW1 time frame but have much to learn. I stand by the old plans comment, though.

[theflashunc]

Thanks for that, seriously. I’ve read a few books on the WW1 time frame but have much to learn. I stand by the old plans comment, though.

Totally. It's depressing how much of this is a re-litigation of shit that was decided at, like Versailles, in 1918. It's also a sad state of affairs that really what we may have had for the last century is just two large interregnums in one on-going dispute amongst the Great Powers in Europe. Names and alliances might have changed a bit, but it's the same bullshit over sphere's of influence.