What can we surmise re: European economic conditions from airfare prices?

[echappist]

Ever since my wife and I took two trans-oceanic trips in the past year (first such trips since late 2019), I've had this itch of visiting places. It's mostly a moot point, as my wife can't really take off that many days due to work commitments, but that hasn't stopped me from looking. She has also given me permission to go to the cycling holylands (viz. Belgium) on my own, though I really don't feel comfortable just jetting off alone to put a checkmark next to one of my cycling bucket list items. There's also a chance that we could go places next July, when she no longer has those commitments.

One thing I just noticed is that airfare to Europe for lie-flat seats during peak travelling times next summer appears very low, as in not much more than what one would pay for premium economy. And this applies to airfare to a whole list of cities, from the more major transit hubs such as AMS, to the slightly less visited places such as MXP, BER, MUC, ZUR, and EDI. Furthermore, for tickets in Spring 2024, they are about $1-1.5k lower than what they were when I checked a few months ago. I've seen reports that Germany is possibly heading into a recession, and that the EU at large might be as well. Given that lie-flat seat pricing is probably a semi-decent proxy for overall business activity, I'm wondering if I'm reading too much from this particular tea-leaf.

[vertical_doug]

I doubt a guess (economic forecast) would be a larger factor than other data in the model- historical booking rates, current competitor rates, additional routes opening, total available seats for the route etc etc . . .

You have the olympics next summer in Paris, and I suspect airlines are adding capacity like crazy only to be disappointed. . . check out some of the price forecasting model

[Chik]

So the fares for the same period came down from what you saw previously? That's interesting.

Is that with US carriers or both US and European carriers? I'm guessing the latter.

[echappist]

So the fares for the same period came down from what you saw previously? That's interesting.

For quite a few places, yes.

We might have a slight window of opportunity to travel next July (usually peak season), and lay-flat for that time period is usually out of our price range, even just for the outbound flight. So it was surprising to see prices for round-trip lay-flat seats be in a range we'd consider. In some instances, those seats right now cost less than prem. economy seats on the same flight. These prices are lower than what I saw in September, back when tickets were first available for sale.

And prices for flights in March to April 2024 have also come down (~$750) from what their prices back in late July 2023.

Is that with US carriers or both US and European carriers? I'm guessing the latter.

Mainly U.S. carriers, but also applicable to SwissAir and Lufthansa

I doubt a guess (economic forecast) would be a larger factor than other data in the model- historical booking rates, current competitor rates, additional routes opening, total available seats for the route etc etc . . .

You have the olympics next summer in Paris, and I suspect airlines are adding capacity like crazy only to be disappointed. . . check out some of the price forecasting model

Good point.

Round-trip non-stop flights from ORD to CDG is ~$2,600 for most of summer 2024 (granted, a lot of the French population go on vacation at that time, so perhaps expected decrease in business activity?), goes up to ~$3,300 for the weeks coinciding with the Olympics.