Ouster of the House Speaker

[echappist]

Could someone knowledgeable comment on the recent developments?

One thing I really don't quite understand is the eagerness with which the Democrat Caucus joined in. I completely get why the Democrat Caucus might be fed up (promises not kept), but on the other hand, it's hard to understand what the pay off is, given the likelihood that any replacement might be even less conciliatory. Devil one knows and all that.

Boehner was cast in a very harsh light by some, but he seemed to be a statesman as compared to the current crop.

Specifically, I see the following scenarios as a result 1) McCarthy gets re-elected as speaker and 2) someone else is elected. Scenario 2) is the "devil one doesn't know". Scenario 1) gets us back to square 1, except with a lot more distrust.

I suppose maybe the Democrat Caucus reached this decision after it offered support in exchange for concessions, and that offer was outright rebuffed, possibly b/c McCarthy believes he'd end up back as speaker anyway. It just seems like not getting involved may be the better play. Short term "gain" of having McCarthy associated with a ignominious historical first just seems like very little pay-off in view of potential down-the-road headaches (e.g. even less willingness to negotiate in the future).

Or am I missing something?

[zetroc]

McCarthy did not do himself any favors with the Democrats by calling for Biden's impeachment on bogus charges.

"Never interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake."

[j44ke]

Could someone knowledgeable comment on the recent developments?

One thing I really don't quite understand is the eagerness with which the Democrat Caucus joined in. I completely get why the Democrat Caucus might be fed up (promises not kept), but on the other hand, it's hard to understand what the pay off is, given the likelihood that any replacement might be even less conciliatory. Devil one knows and all that.

Boehner was cast in a very harsh light by some, but he seemed to be a statesman as compared to the current crop.

Or am I missing something?

Democrats don't need to do the Republicans any favors at this point. McCarthy was inept, but he buffered the Republicans from the lunatic fringe. Better to have the 8 out in the open. And these 8 are so fringe-y that Bobert and Greene did not vote with the 8. So now the 8 have to pick 1 person to replace McCarthy and get that person voted in as Speaker. How are they going to do that? You can expect at this point that all 208 Democrats will vote as a block against anyone they don't like, and anyone they don't like will be any Republican (including McCarthy) put up for Speaker. 210 Republicans voted against dismissing McCarthy. How many of those people are going to vote for any candidate that the 8 select as an alternative Speaker acceptable to them? Not all 210. Democrats only need what, 6 votes from across the aisle to defeat any candidate selected by the 8?

So I think the question here is who among the 8 is going to vote for McCarthy to be returned to the Speaker position. The 210 Republicans need 4 defectors from the 8. What is the price for each of those 4? And they all have a price. In the end, Geatz is potentially going to get left out in the cold.

[rwsaunders]

Bring back Strom Thurmond! Oh wait...he's dead and he was a Senator. Well ok then...bring back Strom Thurmond!

[72gmc]

Aside from the kind of calculus Jorn is proposing, I don’t see the point of rewarding someone who gained the speakership as he did (perhaps the most cowardly way imaginable) with a continuation. There may be no better option, but his willingness to grovel showed he was no alternative to chaos anyway.

[echappist]

McCarthy did not do himself any favors with the Democrats by calling for Biden's impeachment on bogus charges.

"Never interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake."

The present situation would be more akin to one's enemy getting pummeled by a third party, and one can either join in on the pummeling or sit on the sidelines, except by joining in, one doesn't get to fully resolve the situation.

In which case, why not let one's enemy and the third party waste energy while watching from the sidelines.

Democrats don't need to do the Republicans any favors at this point. McCarthy was inept, but he buffered the Republicans from the lunatic fringe. Better to have the 8 out in the open. And these 8 are so fringe-y that Bobert and Greene did not vote with the 8. So now the 8 have to pick 1 person to replace McCarthy and get that person voted in as Speaker. How are they going to do that? You can expect at this point that all 208 Democrats will vote as a block against anyone they don't like, and anyone they don't like will be any Republican (including McCarthy) put up for Speaker. 210 Republicans voted against dismissing McCarthy. How many of those people are going to vote for any candidate that the 8 select as an alternative Speaker acceptable to them? Not all 210. Democrats only need what, 6 votes from across the aisle to defeat any candidate selected by the 8?

So I think the question here is who among the 8 is going to vote for McCarthy to be returned to the Speaker position. The 210 Republicans need 4 defectors from the 8. What is the price for each of those 4? And they all have a price. In the end, Geatz is potentially going to get left out in the cold.

I think the potential down side would be that McCarthy would be even less willing to do what he's supposed to do (e.g. let funding bills get voted on), because he might have to offer sweeteners.

Or perhaps that might be part of the calculus, to show just how badly the GOP runs the House when in control of it, all as a part of a longer-term strategy aimed at 2024 elections. While it would be somewhat cynical, at least there would be a potential material pay-off as opposed to mere embarrassment for one's political opponents.

[j44ke]

I just don't think that the Democrats want to solve anything for the Republicans. Not their job. I mean, one of the Republicans in the 8 (from SC) said the clincher for her was the unwillingness of McCarthy to work towards increased access to birth control even after he promised to do so. That's a Republican voting against a Republican speaker for not increasing access to birth control? She also says she is a fiscal conservative. And she's from South Carolina. Whacky times.

I think the better analogy is that the Republicans were already drilling a hole in the bottom of their boat and the Democrats just lent them a better drill so they could do it faster.

[j44ke]

So McCarthy has just announced he's done with being Speaker. Now the 210 are able to turn on the 8 because they can all vie for the Speaker position without violating any allegiance they had to McCarthy as Speaker. House is adjourned now until Tuesday.

[spopepro]

If some reports are to believed, there was a bit of an open line left for some Ds to rescue McCarthy’s speakership, but in the midst of those conversations McCarthy went on every platform he could blaming Ds for every slight perceived and real. I suspect McCarthy was hoping to project party solidarity after splitting his to pass the CR. This did have the effect of spiking any chance of relief.

Oh, and other reports of some Rs who got personally insulted my McCarthy in conversations about saving his speakership that caused them to switch to voting to vacate. McCarthy has always been a belligerent bully… there might be some political strategy to the Yeas today… but don’t underestimate how many just deeply dislike McCarthy.

[COVRTDESIGN]

Democrats are a little over a year until another pivotal election, they lost the House, and is now very well positioned to take the House back as well as the Senate AND President, and not one Democrat even has to campaign in most of these elections for 2024, why? Because the Republicans are only able to fight with themselves, and are just over and over, daily, showing that they cannot govern, they don't want to govern, they just want to be a celebrity, get paid as much as they can, and then just disappear into their right wing bubble for the rest of their lives. Stealing their money with podcasts and appearances, speeches, etc. It is merely a grift and power trip, nothing more, nothing less.
You might not like some of the "over the top" things and stances that left wing and liberals care about, but I think it comes from a place of love, caring, and acceptance of all rather than a wall of hate and fear and non-acceptance. Obviously that isn't everyone of each "side" but it is the parts that get the most attention, copying, and headlines.

[echappist]

So McCarthy has just announced he's done with being Speaker. Now the 210 are able to turn on the 8 because they can all vie for the Speaker position without violating any allegiance they had to McCarthy as Speaker. House is adjourned now until Tuesday.

Looks like the main point I raised is now moot.

Then again, you have people like Scalise tossing his hat into the ring, and Scalise looks quite a bit worse than McCarthy.

Thanks to everyone who has chimed in.

[hampco]

Meanwhile:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ter-conference

[theflashunc]

Could someone knowledgeable comment on the recent developments?

One thing I really don't quite understand is the eagerness with which the Democrat Caucus joined in. I completely get why the Democrat Caucus might be fed up (promises not kept), but on the other hand, it's hard to understand what the pay off is, given the likelihood that any replacement might be even less conciliatory. Devil one knows and all that.

Boehner was cast in a very harsh light by some, but he seemed to be a statesman as compared to the current crop.

Specifically, I see the following scenarios as a result 1) McCarthy gets re-elected as speaker and 2) someone else is elected. Scenario 2) is the "devil one doesn't know". Scenario 1) gets us back to square 1, except with a lot more distrust.

I suppose maybe the Democrat Caucus reached this decision after it offered support in exchange for concessions, and that offer was outright rebuffed, possibly b/c McCarthy believes he'd end up back as speaker anyway. It just seems like not getting involved may be the better play. Short term "gain" of having McCarthy associated with a ignominious historical first just seems like very little pay-off in view of potential down-the-road headaches (e.g. even less willingness to negotiate in the future).

Or am I missing something?

Four fundamental reasons:

1) McCarthy's muddying the waters and downplaying the severity of January 6. Including voting against certification of the election after people stormed the building to do a coup.
2) McCarthy's continued tight relationship and subservience to Trump.

And probably most importantly:
3) Going back on the comprehensive debt limit/budget deal he agreed to in the Spring.
4) Throwing Democrats -- who bailed him out just three days prior by voting for the clean CR -- under the bus on national TV and saying it's their fault the country is as close to a government shutdown as it was.

There were no concessions they would get from McCarthy. And the GOP is the majority. Not their job to try to solve an issue that exists in the GOP caucus.

It's some weird unspoken dynamic that the GOP gets to act like children in a tantrum, and then blame the Democrats for not cleaning up their mess as the only adults in the room.

This is a GOP problem. Pelosi had a similar majority margin in her latest run as Speaker. And you didn't see any of this nonsense. Government worked just fine. When you have a party that's now built entirely on grievance and revanchism -- there's no official GOP Party Platform of policy goals, for example -- this is what you get.

[72gmc]

McCarthy willingly dove into the political equivalent of the Shawshank Prison sewer pipe. Is the speaker's office really worth that? Does it come with a goodie bag or something?

[bigbill]

I'm pessimistic about the future of our country. There is too much selfishness and not enough selflessness. IIRC, Biden was a placeholder while the next generation of democrat national leaders was being groomed for 2024. Biden is too old for another sixty months in office, and his stated desire to run for reelection has stifled the next generation. Trump, in his desire to remain relevant, has splintered the right so only the most rabid will vote for him, while other republican candidates who hold more moderate views aren't getting press. The voting out of McCarthy drives the wedge even further.

IMO, Biden needs to declare his support for another candidate, or at the least agree to an open convention. Senator Feinstein should have retired a few years ago. The Governor could have appointed a replacement that would be heading into an election with enough experience to not be considered a "place holder." Trump is too old as well, he should settle his cases and retire to Florida, but that only works if the remaining candidates shift away from the fringe elements of the republicans. I get it, in the primaries, a candidate has to be hard right or left to get the nomination, then shift toward the middle to win the general. I think the middle has gone missing.

[caleb]

Couple factoids and tidbits:

1) There is no requirement that the Speaker be a member of Congress. The House could elect George Bush or Obama by a simple majority if they wanted.

2) The House can do business without a Speaker because there’s an interim (McHenry) who was put in office automatically by a War on Terror era law that created a succession plan. This could just be status quo for the remainder of this Congress.

3) It is a little unclear if McHenry is subject to the rules governing the Speakership in the role of Speaker Pro Tempore, because we've never been in this situation before. If this ends up being a drawn out stalemate, he might start to use the role more aggressively to reach a resolution and/or address government funding, and members might start pushing back with untested rules, with unknown results.

4) McHenry could allow a vote on a change to the rules about how to remove a Speaker. If they raised that threshold to 2/3 instead of a simple majority (step 1), we could then see a grand coalition of moderate Ds and Rs elect a Democrat and keep them from being removed (step 2). McHenry's willingness to allow this to happen probably hinges on (a) whether he thinks this is a desirable outcome for him personally and for his party broadly, (b) whether he thinks he can be removed, and (c) whether he thinks there'll be a Speaker in place in a reasonable amount of time. This move would effectively break the partisan status quo and look more like a parliamentary coalition system. Seems unlikely at this point, but the consequences would be massive.

[j44ke]

I think McCarthy will be back as Speaker next week.

[theflashunc]

I'm pessimistic about the future of our country. There is too much selfishness and not enough selflessness. IIRC, Biden was a placeholder while the next generation of democrat national leaders was being groomed for 2024. Biden is too old for another sixty months in office, and his stated desire to run for reelection has stifled the next generation. Trump, in his desire to remain relevant, has splintered the right so only the most rabid will vote for him, while other republican candidates who hold more moderate views aren't getting press. The voting out of McCarthy drives the wedge even further.

IMO, Biden needs to declare his support for another candidate, or at the least agree to an open convention. Senator Feinstein should have retired a few years ago. The Governor could have appointed a replacement that would be heading into an election with enough experience to not be considered a "place holder." Trump is too old as well, he should settle his cases and retire to Florida, but that only works if the remaining candidates shift away from the fringe elements of the republicans. I get it, in the primaries, a candidate has to be hard right or left to get the nomination, then shift toward the middle to win the general. I think the middle has gone missing.

I'd be more inclined to agree if Biden wasn't getting a whole lotta shit done. Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPs and Science Act, student loan debt, owning the House GOP at every single negotiating turn. I do worry about his age and whether he'd see the end of a second term -- and clearly he's not the guy who was on the trail in 2008 with Obama -- but this ain't Feinstein being wheeled into the Senate chamber.

[Scott G.]

So Caleb, do think McHenry has read “I Claudius” ?

[spopepro]

I think McCarthy will be back as Speaker next week.

I think this forgets how fraught his first nomination was, and now he’s in an even weaker position. He wasn’t able to pay out the checks he wrote to win the speakership when people tried to cash them.

A while ago someone observed that senators rarely win presidencies due to having too much voting record baggage. I think something similar will happen here that it’s going to be a lesser known person without baggage that triggers folks.