Is It Going to Be Cold This Winter?

[j44ke]

Because I just bought a new arctic weight down comforter from Feathered Friends, and I am ready. No more wool socks for me.

We are getting 30F tonight supposedly. That's in mid-October. So usually cold early means not much colder later - mildish in other words.

Predictions? Actual knowledge?

[72gmc]

I really hope so. Walked the dog in shorts and a t-shirt midday yesterday. I'll get my season ski pass in the mail next month.

[bcm119]

NOAA says...

[thollandpe]

Because I just bought a new arctic weight down comforter from Feathered Friends, and I am ready. No more wool socks for me.

We are getting 30F tonight supposedly. That's in mid-October. So usually cold early means not much colder later - mildish in other words.

Predictions? Actual knowledge?

Forecast is "spotty frost" tonight. I'm bringing in the plants.

Mrs H picked up a four-point Hudson's Bay (black stripe) for me last year, gimme wool.

Time to start charging the electric socks. Looks like it's a day or two between full-snot fall allergies and numb digits now.

My prediction: it will be cold but the snow will suck. Give up your skis (especially if you rely on fake snow to use them) in favor of snowshoes (Dion) because they do better on dirt and rocks, or better yet a fat bike (which actually loves dirt and rocks). Fat bikes love crap snow.

[thollandpe]

This. We're gonna get a bunch of this.



Be prepared.

[rwsaunders]

Lots of pine needles down early, which usually means cold weather is coming to me. I just ordered a new pair of Winter cycling shoes the other day, so bring it on Mother Nature. Edit...I just clicked on the NOAA map so I need to make sure my fenders are snug and true too.

[bigbill]

Central Wyoming gets incredibly cold and windy. After we get power on our property, I can install a camera so we can see all the snow and ice from our house in Arizona.

[sk_tle]

I had to wear a sweatshirt to ride my motorbike this morning. It is getting cold indeed.

[WFSTEKL]

It is not unusual to enjoy an evening below freezing by mid-October in New Belgium Massachusetts. In my experience, it does correlate to a mild, or cold winter. It just confirms that Porter and Nebbiolo season has arrived.

October snow though, is often le baiser de la mort on any chance for a snowy winter.

The mets that I follow are not hyping a snowy winter in the Northeast. That in-itself is unusual.

[monadnocky]

Not sure what the signs portend for this winter, but the word of the last few winters here in New Hampshire has been "wintery mix" - rain, freezing rain, sleet, what have you, during times that it definitely should be snowing. We used to get a few blockbuster snowstorms every year; last year we had (maybe) one. Must be frustrating for the ski areas further north and west.
And ever since the ice storm of 2008, I absolutely dread any possibility of freezing rain. I was doing my residency in Albany (NY) at the time, and it took me 17 hours to get back to Keene, NH - normally a 2.5 hour drive. I've never seen anything like it, especially across southern VT. Incredibly, in Keene, the lights flickered but never went out. In Albany, my apartment building was without power for a week.

[mnoble485]

We got down in the mid 20’s last night in western NC.

Mike

[j44ke]

Yeah, middle midwest and mid-atlantic are going to get a bone chill starting last night.

We had 30F at 8AM, but it is quickly up to 38F. The feeding flock of this year's sparrows, finches and warblers (mostly yellow-rumped at this point) along with the over-wintering Chickadee-Nuthatch-Titmouse Social Organizing Committee (with woodpecker rhythm section) all went up into the corner trees that get first sun as it rises.

Last winter featured a lot of ice around here. Snow, then melt, then freeze, usually within a 3 day period. That's not fun for anyone.

I did tell our plow guy that he'd be on-demand in March & April. Not having 2" of driveway disappear again like last year. Let it melt.

[AngryScientist]

Just blew out the sprinklers and outdoor water stuff yesterday. Still have not started up our main boiler for the steam heat yet, but did kick on one of the mini splits in heat mode last night for a while. Looks to be close to 70 here this weekend.

[vertical_doug]

I suspect the US will be unseasonably mild this winter.

My logic is because of the war in Ukraine, and Europe's short supplies of natgas means invariably an extremely long and cold winter for Western Europe- polar vortex stuff.
European Governments say they have enough nat gas stored, but we know that is a lie.
Because Europe will be so cold, to keep the world at average, the US will be warm.

This logic seems rock solid and based on sound science.
(Putin has a weather machine)

[72gmc]

Last winter featured a lot of ice around here. Snow, then melt, then freeze, usually within a 3 day period. That's not fun for anyone.

Sounds like our winter. Dump, then rain, then freeze. Or dump so hard avalanche control can't catch up for a few days, build anticipation, then reopen right as the rain/freeze cycle hits. There's a reason why our snow is called Cascade Concrete.

[thollandpe]

Last winter featured a lot of ice around here. Snow, then melt, then freeze, usually within a 3 day period. That's not fun for anyone.

Sounds like our winter. Dump, then rain, then freeze. Or dump so hard avalanche control can't catch up for a few days, build anticipation, then reopen right as the rain/freeze cycle hits. There's a reason why our snow is called Cascade Concrete.

Ah, the dreaded freeeze-thaw cycle. Destroyer of pavement, building materials, and of course snow crystals. See previous comment about snow quality and the suitability of skis, snowshoes, or fat bikes.

So the more freeze-thaw you get, the better these tires look. But they always look expensive. Unless you find yourself faced with a descent covered in boilerplate ice and you don't have them. Then they seem like a bargain.

[SpeedyChix]

Ah, the dreaded freeeze-thaw cycle. Destroyer of pavement, building materials, and of course snow crystals. See previous comment about snow quality and the suitability of skis, snowshoes, or fat bikes.

So the more freeze-thaw you get, the better these tires look. But they always look expensive. Unless you find yourself faced with a descent covered in boilerplate ice and you don't have them. Then they seem like a bargain.

Fat bike never sheds the studded tires here. Winters have been too icy of late.
This week has been super cold and wet. Not looking forward to more of it. Going to enjoy the brief respite headed in.

[bigbill]

Fuel prices will make it colder this winter. I saw today that heating oil will be 28% more expensive. We use propane out here in the wilds of NW Arizona, and a 10% increase is forecast for prices. I have a 250-gallon tank buried next to the driveway. Our supplier offers an advanced buy at a fixed price, but if the price drops below the fixed, we pay the lower cost. I bought 300 gallons. We use propane for heat, cooking, and the water heater. We typically use 100 gallons for the entire spring and summer. We'll use all 300 gallons over the winter. We're at 4000'+, so we do see cold weather.

[j44ke]

We pre-purchased our propane for winter. Was worth it last year. Definitely going to be worth it this year.

[j44ke]

Todd, I'd have a fat bike right now if you'd bought the right size.